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Old 02-18-2016, 11:04 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
GFS is back to storm out to sea,

And now the new 12z GFS is not. lol. Weeee. I heard the term "Windshield Wiper" used which makes sense. Back and Forth we go. lol


Nice little hit for Southern Vermont. Northern Vermont misses and so does my area.


====================




Just a quick comparison & reminder that each site could have a different result with the snow maps

Both are Snow Totals up to same hour from same GFS12z run.

AmericanWx on left. Pivotal on right. I highlighted where it's showing 5"+ snow totals.

I doubt melting is involved since its a snow "total" but I know each one has their own methods and different resolution is another problem.

Bottom line, look at the generalization of it. Ie: for GFS12z snows down to the coast but more for interior and higher elevations get more.

Not Hey GFS12z showing 5" for Islip just because Pivotal shows that. Support it or give a range instead or look at the actual raw data.


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Old 02-18-2016, 11:20 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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They are going to fly over the Pacific to grab more data to maybe better help the models figure more things out.

26 drops from an altitude of 41,000 feet in different locations which will grab data on the way down and feed into the models for tonight.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST THU 18 FEBRUARY 2016
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 19/1100Z TO 20/1100Z FEBRUARY 2016
WSPOD NUMBER.....15-080

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

3. ADDITIONAL DAY OUTLOOK: PROBABLE TWO CONCURRENT WC-130J
AIRCRAFT MISSIONS OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IN SUPPORT OF
EL NINO/AR OPERATIONS.

4. REMARK: THE NOAA G-IV/NOAA 49 WILL FLY AN 8 HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION SOUTH OF HONOLULU TODAY TOWARDS THE EQUATOR. TAKEOFF
TIME IS AT 18/2100Z. ALTITUDE OF 41,000 TO 45,000 FT WITH
APPROXIMATELY 26 DROPS
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:48 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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Feb 21-22, 2016 Storm (not the main one for the week)


Surprise? Models bringing the storm much south more now for Sunday-Monday.


12z. Euro, Canadian, GFS.


One of these things is not like the others, One of these things just doesn't belong. Can you tell which?


GFS has no precip in the area and keeps the storm well to the south. Euro and Canadian bring snow to the area now. Forecasts in the Northeast should be changing to a snowier one now.


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Old 02-18-2016, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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February 24-26 Storm Update:

Yesterday

GFS Out To Sea
EURO Close to coast with a decent storm

Today

GFS closer to coast with a decent storm
EURO Out To Sea


And the euro was consistently showing a snowstorm for Northeast. #LostFaith

Poor Forecasters. So glad Im not one.
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Old 02-18-2016, 12:58 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
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right one obviously;

which model has the better track record overall, GFS or GCEM?
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Old 02-18-2016, 01:11 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
right one obviously;

which model has the better track record overall, GFS or GCEM?
About tied IMO. Both have their quirks. IMO GGEM(Canadian) better in the 3-5 day range. GFS in the 5-7 day range. I have yet to see a comparison from 3 days out. It's always 5 days out I see. And I still cant find the link.


unless its with paid Weatherbell site which I don't have.

And it's always the Upper level pattern, not the surface MSLP Scores.





https://twitter.com/severeplains/sta...863168/photo/1
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Old 02-18-2016, 01:53 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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February 24-26 Storm Update:


Not to forget... Out to Sea means for Northeast/New England However........ That means its snowy SOUTH of the area.


Euro12z data for Roanoke, VA


1.53" qpf of looks to be all snow. Would like to check the soundings and 925mb temps to confirm but wow! Huge Snowstorm for Virginia on the latest Euro


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Old 02-18-2016, 05:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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From "Uncle Larry"


Quote:
The talk about a potential major winter storm affecting parts of the Deep South, Appalachia, and the Eastern Seaboard next week will likely be growing. The disturbance will likely be composed of two entities: energy ejecting out of the sub-Aleutian vortex, and an impulse moving along in the subtropical jet stream (tied very much to the Phase 6-7-8 banding of the Madden-Julian Oscillation). With the aforementioned mAk gyre pumping up a steep +PNA/-AO styled ridge complex, the ...two disturbances will likely meld in the base of a 500MB trough over the Deep South next Tuesday.


It is way too early to speculate about possible snow amounts, but the unity of the numerical models with regard to this feature is pretty amazing. Therefore the most likely outcome will be a Miller "A" Gulf Coaster/Hatteras/Nor'easter event between February 23 and 27. Yes, I insist on a longer time span because the European and American ensemble platforms suggest a closed off, vertically stacked cyclone that progresses slowly from the NC Outer Banks to the MA Islands, then on toward the Bay of Fundy.
Because the disturbance will be flanked both right and left sides by strong ridging, a huge temperature split is bound to arise by next Wednesday and Thursday. I can easily see some warming developing in coastal New England and Mid-Atlantic locations, enough to allow for precipitation to start as rain. in many places along the Interstate 95 corridor. But I suspect that most of this event will be snow, and potentially a lot of it. With a neutral/negative tilt aloft and inverted trough development over the Virginias, this could be a big snow/ice thunderstorm maker above Interstate 64 near and east of Huntington WV on up into the major cities of the Northeast.


In summary, this disturbance could be "special". Knowing the numerical models often lose such immense systems after pointing them out very far in advance (in this case 15 days if the storm verifies), avoid any rash judgments about its potential until we get to the February 19 runs.
More later....and by the way, there is also a decent shot at another big storm in the South and east in the first week of March. I do not think we fully shake off winter until just after St. Patrick's Day in areas from the Mississippi Valley to the East Coast.




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Old 02-18-2016, 05:36 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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Feb 18-21, 2016 Snowfall forecast

Active month we been having. I know not in every backyard but most of the time that's the case. Activity is about the map, not each backyard. Been fun and not over yet.


Sure hasn't been a quiet boring month for weather geeks across the U.S

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Old 02-18-2016, 09:02 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,304 posts, read 74,602,783 times
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New NAM00z just out wants to help me get to 3 feet season snow total.

DC, Philly, Hartford, Boston miss out but State College, NYC, Islip are in.

Sunday night, Monday morning

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