February & Early March 2016 U.S Stormy Pattern (Rain & Snowstorms) (Ohio, Detroit)

[Cambium]

Euro12z today. No comment, No Surprise. Inland track. Starting to get continuity now.


+10C over Boston at 850mb.


Detroit and Eastern Ohio get the snowstorm, Rain for the Northeast and warm

Big storm. Winds and probably severe weather as it comes up for the Mid Atlantic?

[Cambium]

Feb 24-25, 2016 Storm Update:



The latest runs for same hour (Thursday afternoon) except Navgem is for Thursday morning.


Canadian and navgem still cuts the furthest west but notice how warm it is anyway. It's still rain East of the Apps.


This is a cutter folks. All of them agree that it comes from the SW, enters Texas & Louisiana and then they start to diverge.


But the common denominator is they all cut the storm on land, not up the coast..


GFS has snow for Chicago, Euro screws Chicago but gives snow to Detroit. Canadian screws them both and gives snow to PA and Western NY and the Adirondacks.


Who gets snow still up in the air but it wont be East of the Apps. A storm that cuts ALWAYS brings warmth on the East side of it.

[ilovemycomputer90]

Looks like yet another rain storm here. Easy to get those even when there's record cold in between.

[btownboss4]

Looks like it will be similar to last week, although depends on where the rain/snow line sets up, jackpot anywhere between the OH/PA border and Rochester or so.

[snj90]

Snow on March 1st? Weather Underground says so. Still way too far out, though. But that's the next snow possibility, it seems.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by snj90

Snow on March 1st? Weather Underground says so. Still way too far out, though. But that's the next snow possibility, it seems.

This week seemed like our best shot. Ugh. There was something on the 28th now that disappeared. we'll see about March 1st.

991mb Low over LA is very strong! GFS projecting it Tuesday Evening.

https://twitter.com/akrherz/status/701543760706965504

[Cambium]

Why couldn't that Jet axis be in the Atlantic inctead??


Severe Thunderstorms possible in Mid Atlantic with a strong storm heading towards Lake Erie.


Look how far west the snow line is.


Keep in mind, we may see some snow/mix at the very beginning. See discussion below.





It's never good for snowfall whenever you need Cold Air Damming or overrunning precip for any, Because eventually that Damming weakens and the warm advection overtakes the area.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
430 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016


HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TUESDAY NIGHT BUT WILL RIDGE
DOWN THE APPALACHIANS WITH COLD AIR DAMMING PRESENT IN THE ISOBAR
FIELD. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE THE
MAIN SOURCE FOR A COASTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY ALONG/OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. AS THE LOW MOVES
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY... LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM OVERRUNNING BECOMES
LIKELY TUESDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE
PLAIN RAIN AS INCREASING EASTERLY FLOW BRINGS IN WARMER AIR AT THE
SURFACE. THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO STAY
COLDER FROM THE COLD AIR DAMMING WITH MORE OF A WINTRY MIX. WARMER
AIR ALOFT WILL LIKELY CHANGE ANY SNOW/SLEET TO FREEZING RAIN
OVERNIGHT. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT ICING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF SNOW AND A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE.

THE PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO PLAIN RAIN INLAND AS THE DAMMING
SIGNATURE WEAKENS AND TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA LIFTS CLOSER AS A
WARM FRONT WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY


INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE WARM
FRONT LEADS TO A STEADY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW TRANSPORTING DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS BETWEEN
1.25 AND 1.50 INCHES. LARGE SCALE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THIS DEEP
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES.



THERE SHOULD BE BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE LOW MOVES INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY MORNING SENDING A COLD FRONT THROUGH WHICH
WILL BRING AN END TO THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 40S WEDNESDAY AND THEN INTO THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH.

[Cambium]

Short and Sweet from NWS Boston. What ashame. We have the Phasing of both jets to produce a big storm and there's not much cold around even for points west but more importantly not tracking up the coast. Ugh.


Mild Heavy Rain in February. . Guess better than a cold rain, that would be more of a tease.


NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
449 AM EST MON FEB 22 2016


MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PHASING OF NORTHERN AND SOUTHERNSTREAM SYSTEMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WED INTO THU RESULTING IN ADEEP CYCLONE TRACKING FROM THE OH VALLEY TO THE EASTERN LAKES.RESULT WILL BE A MILD HEAVY RAIN EVENT WED NIGHT INTO THU.HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRECEDED BY A WINTRY MIX TUE NIGHTINTO WED ASSOCD WITH WEAKER COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH COMBINED WITHCOLD HIGH PRES OVER THE MARITIMES.

[Cambium]

So now that we are 1-2 days away from this storm here's why it's not a snowstorm and was pretty locked out couple days ago that it wasn't.


Saying it in a post is pointless. Need a video to demonstrate why.


The "kicker" that was supposed to push it East is weaker today. Models had it stronger for today last week so it pushed the storm near the coast more. Once they realized it was weaker they started realizing the storm track was much west more. West of the Appalachians

Watch the video to understand what happened. (towards middle)

Snowstorm Midwest; Soaking rain East Coast -


NWS Albany mentions at least no flood threat with the rains but there is snow in the Adirondacks.


FORTUNATELY...THE SNOW PACK IS VERY MEAGER ACROSS OUR
REGION...WITH VIRTUALLY NO SNOW COVER FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH INCLUDING ALL OF THE CATSKILLS. THERE IS SOME SNOW ACROSS
THE ADIRONDACKS... UPPER MOHAWK VALLEY...EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
VERMONT. HOWEVER EVEN IN THESE AREAS...AMOUNTS ARE WELL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE LATEST MMEFS INDICATED NO FLOODING ON ANY OF OUR RIVERS OR
STREAMS BUT SEVERAL POINTS REACHING ACTION STAGE. SO WHILE WE DO
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES...THE LACK OF SNOW MELT COULD
MITIGATE ANY FLOODING...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

[Cambium]

Sorry Ontario & Quebec for leaving you out. I wish I got paid to mentioned every area. LOL Keep us posted on what happens! Snowstorm Michigan into Canada!





Current look at where the storm is... There's 2! The first one down south right now will exit the Mid Atlantic today, models 2 weeks ago thought that was the bigger one. Then last week realized it was not. It's #2 behind it currently over the Rockies.

Not a lot of rain with #1. It's #2 that will be the bigger one and produce severe weather across the south and the snowstorm up north.





In motion