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Old 08-19-2016, 06:56 PM
 
Location: Leeds, UK
22,112 posts, read 29,581,703 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botev1912 View Post
Why do most people consider first half of September autumn? The weather is more similar to August than October. Summer ends on September 20. The first half of June here is usually cloudier and cooler than the first half of September.
Yeah, first half of September is more summer than autumn. If anything, the weather in September is usually nicer than in June here.
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Old 08-20-2016, 07:11 AM
 
Location: Sydney
765 posts, read 574,080 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Botev1912 View Post
Why do most people consider first half of September autumn? The weather is more similar to August than October. Summer ends on September 20. The first half of June here is usually cloudier and cooler than the first half of September.
But that's the nature of the seasons isn't it? Autumn is when it goes from warm to cold. We use meteorological seasons in Australia, and indeed in most temperate places, December is warmer than March. It's also for record keeping purposes.
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Old 08-20-2016, 09:45 AM
 
Location: Perth, WA
2,258 posts, read 1,304,020 times
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Yeah, but here it's March, it's much warmer than December.
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Old 08-20-2016, 02:55 PM
 
29,522 posts, read 19,616,477 times
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Latest CFSv2 for September




It almost seems as if we are slowly going to be reverting back to Northwest positive anomalies and east of the rockies negative as we progress closer to winter
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Old 08-20-2016, 02:58 PM
 
Location: New York
11,326 posts, read 20,331,120 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Latest CFSv2 for September




It almost seems as if we are slowly going to be reverting back to Northwest positive anomalies and east of the rockies negative as we progress closer to winter
If this does play out, I'll be fully convinced that something's broken/changed. This can't keep going on.

On another note, I've finally reached 10,000 posts.
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Old 08-20-2016, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,406,867 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Infamous92 View Post
I'm officially convinced that something's broken/changed. This can't keep going on.

On another note, I've finally reached 10,000 posts.
Unfortunately all I can say is I feel this is going to be similar to 13-14. Not bad and I believe above average here when all 3 months are averaged. Started out warm, brutal in jan, and ended warm but then March was brutal. I do think there will be differences especially early on. We will still have warmth from the Nino lingering, way above normal east coast waters, lower sea ice than that year, and the pdo is weakening not strengthening. 13-14 should have been a warm winter all around because of how strongly positive the AO and Nao were but the Pacific wanted to change that. I don't think it will be an exact redux of 13-14 especially down south, but it will bear similarities. All in all don't be too worried yet imo. Another positive for me is every july- august period since 1980 that was above normal featured well above average Temps in winter. A correlation of course but not causation so it doesn't mean that this winter will be warm but it does have good omens.
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Old 08-20-2016, 03:38 PM
 
29,522 posts, read 19,616,477 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Infamous92 View Post
If this does play out, I'll be fully convinced that something's broken/changed. This can't keep going on.
That and a weak La Nina spells cold for the eastern 2/3rds



https://twitter.com/commoditywx/stat...67118330908672



I would also expect a lot of snow along the eastern seaboard as the Atlantic is on fire giving storms more energy


Quote:
On another note, I've finally reached 10,000 posts.
Salute!
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Old 08-20-2016, 07:01 PM
 
29,522 posts, read 19,616,477 times
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Yup CFSv2 latest runs are definitely repositioning the positive anomalies over the PNW and West. You can see the models beginning to change the overall pattern that has been in place for a year




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Old 08-20-2016, 07:23 PM
 
Location: Lizard Lick, NC
6,344 posts, read 4,406,867 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Yup CFSv2 latest runs are definitely repositioning the positive anomalies over the PNW and West. You can see the models beginning to change the overall pattern that has been in place for a year



Can't help but to be in awe, this pattern is here to stay. Even a record breaking El Nino could not stop it, that is insane!
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Old 08-20-2016, 10:46 PM
 
Location: Lexington, KY
12,278 posts, read 9,452,795 times
Reputation: 2763
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
It almost seems as if we are slowly going to be reverting back to Northwest positive anomalies and east of the rockies negative as we progress closer to winter
We got in a good summer. Don't mind it as much now.
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