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Yeah Macron would be my pick right now, but I don't see him winning. The utopist I was referring to is the socialist candidate, Hamon. An alliance with the extreme left would be bad news as far as I'm concerned as it'd possibly give him enough clout to finish 2nd at the first round, beating Macron and whoever replaces Fillon if they don't play their cards right.
Second round polls
Fillon: 60% vs Le Pen: 40%
Macron 65% vs Le Pen: 35%
Macron: 58% vs Fillon 42%
Proportion for each candidate stating that they will vote for him
Macron: 43%
Fillon: 36%
Hamon: 36%
Le Pen: 33%
Melenchon: 25%
According to you, each of the following candidates would make a good president (Yes/No)
Macron: 45/46
Fillon: 40/52
Hamon: 34/58
Le Pen: 28/65
Melenchon: 21/72
Macron seems to have the largest lead over Le Pen in the second round, with the most people thinking he would make a good president. Of course, after Brexit and Trump there are no certainties, but it's important to bear in mind that most polls were actually close to the mark for both. The final YouGov poll for example showed Leave winning by a greater margin than it did iirc. Plus, Hillay did win the popular vote which is what matters in France (as it does in most European countries, UK excluded). Le Pen (currently) isn't as close to the other candidates.
We've been here before. Jean-Marie Le Pen made it to the second round in 2002, receiving 17% of the vote in the first round, behind first-place Jacques Chirac (20%). In the second round, Chirac got 82% of the vote, because Socialists voted tactically for Chirac (the centre-right candidate) to block Le Pen from winning. Naturally, the socialists will vote for the centre-right liberals over the far-right populists.
I guess we'll just have to wait and see, because I don't want to say anything with happen with certainty. That would be foolish.
The fact that even the best-polling candidate still has slightly more people thinking he'd be a bad president than a good one really says a lot about the French psyche - happiest when miserable, lol.
Last edited by dunno what to put here; 01-31-2017 at 04:50 PM..
vaguely like Bernie vs Trump. The runoff system appears like it's liable to produce weird results if there's a candidate a sizeable minority appeal that no one else likes.
Is it better over on the other side of the pond? As for myself I haven't seen it for 10 days at least...
Lol no. It's been overcast the whole week.
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