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8 seats lost to the Tories in Greater London, whereas 1 would be lost to the Lib Dems according to the guesstimation I've made. That's 37-34-ish for Labour in another stronghold. Shocking stuff really. Probably 37-35 since I predict a Tory re-gain of Richmond Park with a normal turnout like they did on UKIP in Rochester 2015.
As for the Leeds constituencies the first one is definitely a LibDem hold, probably by around 10 points. The other I'd expect to be tight but in the preliminary model I made for Yorkshire I kept it in the Labour column by three points or thereabouts. Rural swings will surely be higher too. Standard calculation model is that 12-14 points win for Labour last time is the cutoff. It all depends on demographics and types of Tory voters as well.
It's worth bearing in mind that London isn't really a Labour stronghold. It's only become so in the past 5-6 years. It has trended towards Labour even though the rest of the country has trended away from them.
Here's the result in 1992 for example:
In fact, the 2015 election was almost the same, just with Labour and the Tories in different positions.
if anyone's interested in US elections, we have two special elections coming up. Two Republican congressmen were appointed to cabinet positions. One is a suburban Atlanta district that typically votes strongly republican in presidential elections but Trump barely won. The other is Montana, Trump did well there, but it often elects Democrats statewide. And the Democratic candidate looks like he fits the state:
It's worth bearing in mind that London isn't really a Labour stronghold. It's only become so in the past 5-6 years. It has trended towards Labour even though the rest of the country has trended away from them.
Here's the result in 1992 for example:
the big cities voting for the center-right party in Europe sounds odd to me; appears the UK is getting somewhat more American-style voting patterns?
hmm, the 1992 pattern looks like it was inner, more working-class boroughs vote Labour, and outer suburban-like boroughs vote Conservative. So it's partially a reflection of the large size of London. The only unusual pattern is conservative boroughs in inner West London, but American cities usually don't have as much old money and the republican party is more conservative on social issues. I think the Upper East Side had a Republican congressman till sometime in the 70s or 80s.
the big cities voting for the center-right party in Europe sounds odd to me; appears the UK is getting somewhat more American-style voting patterns?
In Europe, centre-left parties have traditionally been popular with the working classes. European cities seem to have wealthier people living in the centre, and they tend to vote for centre-right parties.
London's boundaries also cover its suburban areas, whereas American cities don't. If New York had boundaries like London, it would include Westchester County.
And yes, the Tories are much less conservative than the Republicans. They're the ones who made same-sex marriage legal. The Tory-voting areas of London tend to be socially liberal, and voted strongly to remain in the EU. They tend to vote for the Tories out of economic self-interest.
Anyway, US mid-term elections next year will be interesting. Wonder if the Democrats will make a comeback.
Last edited by dunno what to put here; 03-08-2017 at 09:27 AM..
Outside of London you also have to take into account the UKIP factor, they're not taking seats, but they're taking lots of Labour votes. During 2015, in my local constituency, which is historically a Labour stronghold, the Conservatives significantly narrowed the gap. Not because they winning a lot more votes, but rather because UKIP had been eating into Labour's share.
all you Europeans are missed out on the upcoming world's greatest healthcare here!
Trump in 2020: "Hey, I gave you the World's Greatest Healthcare Plan!"
Why did nobody think of that before?
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