Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Curious George, think Bastardi will mention this latest run? I'm sure he will trash it. He has a recent post that is praising the CFS cause they show cold in winter. At least admit the guy cherry picks and just cannot bring himself to even predict a mild winter. After every winter, so as to seem less biased, he calls for a string of mild winters in the East, and then like clockwork come August he starts harping on the cold analogs. Right now, he is talking about another 2014 type January. Guy is just so biased and tries to act like he isn't. Why isn't he mentioning the expanding pool of cold water off the PNW coastline?
He trashes the models when they don't make sense to him. What, you don't think he was calling for a US torch last winter? Come on His clients are on the energy sector. He isn't doing this for fun or wish casting. He needs to be accurate for his clients who trade energy commodities.
And no that model run doesn't make sense to me either given the CURRENT SST's. Of course that model may be seeing a change in ocean anomalies that we can't see.
Um, so let's see Europe actually gets a cold winter and we don't. Something up with that. That sure looks like a negative NAO, which impacts us as well as them. How can they be cold and Eastern Europe and Russia warm? Their real cold comes from the east. These long range things are just stupid at this point.
Greenland being cold implying NO NEGATIVE NAO. Lack of blocking would be one reason for more warmth
While there are so many factors in play, I haven't had time to dissect, maybe you guys want to..
A Quick look, it looks like Augusts update (on right) shows more La Nina then previous update. Implying a warmer Eastern U.S with a La Nina vs Neutral? Wonder what other factors are different.
Since I've been researching, reading, studying about the sun, it's truly fascinating how it gets ignored too much IMO. One reason is because there is a lag time. People hate to think "what could happen" and rather know what will happen in the near term.
Another is maybe because there's not enough studies. Another is because there's so many other factors that it's hard to isolate 1 thing? Whatever the case is, it's interesting to see how the sun DOES play a role in weather and climate. (more so climate I think)
And to see what we are entering is pretty damn interesting if you ask me. One that shouldn't be ignored but again, back to that thing about how can we be so sure?
If you are really interested in reading more about this, you should read Phil Plait's Death from the Skies. He is a professional astronomer and is a very entertaining blogger (he runs the Bad Astronomy blog on Slate). He talks about this very topic in his book (sunspots impacting the climate). General conversation is that it is possible that the lack of sunspots in the 1800s contributed to the mini Ice Age, but it is totally inconclusive, and right now all we have for sure is correlation, not necessarily causation.
It is fact that fewer sunspots do mean that the sun is giving off less visible light, and less of other forms of radiation, so it COULD cause a temporarily cooler Earth, but it is only .1% - .5% less light, so may not play any significant role. If it did, then all planets should be correspondingly cooler during sunspot minimums, related to their distance from the sun, and we aren't seeing that.
Lol, this is the problem with lumping all those analogs together. Look at some of those years individually instead of lumped together. 1981 thru 1985 were horrendous winters here. They bear no resemblance to the winter of 2015-16.
I just want a mild zone 8 winter with minimal snowfall. I know it'll be the polar opposite though, even if it starts out extremely warm like last winter.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
His clients are on the energy sector. He isn't doing this for fun or wish casting. He needs to be accurate for his clients who trade energy commodities. 
