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National Weather Service Gray ME
620 AM EST Tue Dec 13 2016
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
There is no shortage of wx or potential hazards in the
extended as we look to swing from fierce winter to more of a
shoulder season pattern.
First on deck is a significant trof forecast to swing thru the
Northeast late this week. Ensemble guidance is in strong agreement
of a greater than 3 standard deviation departure below normal for
H5 heights. That kind of trof will mean big changes across the
region. We will see one cold front cross the area early
Thu...followed by a second front with the real Arctic air behind
it Thu night or early Fri. Both GEFS and ECMWF EPS mean H8 temps
have -25C to the NH/MA border...with some suggestions of -30C
lurking near the North Woods. If realized...this could set a
couple daily records for mid level temps in the GYX/PWM sounding
climatology. Not only that...but these could be the coldest mid level air temps on the planet if model forecast are correct. Lucky
us right? CAA Thu night looks to keep the boundary layer
mixed...so temps will be cold but not as cold as if it were clear
and calm. Stuck close to raw model temps as MOS tends to try and
decouple too easily. With cold temps and gusty winds...wind chills
will drop close to advisory thresholds or even warning criteria in
the far N. There is little relief Fri either...as high pressure
begins to nose in. The subsidence will limit mixing...and based on
forecast soundings and mix down tools...we may struggle to reach
the mid teens in many places. This again will be close to daily
record low max temps. Given the high pressure in place and early
sunsets this time of year...temps will drop quickly after dark and
we will be primed for ideal radiational cooling early. I undercut
min temp guidance to account for this. Though late in the night
increasing clouds and WAA beginning may allow temps to slowly rise
before morning.
A look at the current Mid Level temps & MSLP for Southern Hemisphere (Summer there)
Here's current Mid Level temps and 500mb heights for Northern Hem. Big blob of blues near U.S (-25C & colder). Its coming.
Yeah Cambium it's way to early to discuss snowfall amounts in any serious way, and I'm worried that I'm going to be very close to that snow/mix/rain line. We'll have to see where the low tracks. Still GFS looks promising as of now.
Pink dots = Normal Max
Blue dots = Normal Min
Red Bar = Actual Max
Blue Bar = Actual Min
Grand Forks, ND max temps have been pretty much near where the normal low is, the 10th was even below that. Yikes. Struggling past single digits again today.
Actually, they haven't been past single digits since the 8th.
Mean temperature is on -16.1°C. If we get average conditions from here on in the mean will end up around -13°C. The last time we had a colder month was February 2014--almost three years ago.
GFS trying to catch up to Euro but much more realistic Monday
Anyway to post that same map for minimum temperatures for the 19th to include the Indianapolis area???
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