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Some risk for severe storms here on Saturday with the strong frontal system.
Quote:
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 AM CST Wed Dec 14 2016
Valid 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models remain generally consistent with overall
depiction of the evolution of the storm system progged to be
crossing the central and eastern U.S. Days 4-5 (Saturday and
Sunday). General agreement exists between the models as well,
though the latest run of the ECMWF is a bit faster with progression
of the surface front than the GFS.
With that said, some severe risk remains apparent from east TX
eastward/northeastward across MS and vicinity Day 4 (Saturday), as
the cold front shifts southeastward across this area. Despite
northward advection of Gulf moisture allowing some CAPE to develop
in the warm sector, weak lapse rates/capping ahead of the front is
expected -- particularly with southward extent -- as the main
energy/large-scale ascent associated with the upper system is
progged to both lag the surface front significantly, and remain
generally north of the region. This will likely result in a
tendency for much of the convection to be elevated in an
anafrontal-type regime. Still, with some storm development along
the immediate frontal zone likely, degree of shear -- more than
sufficient for organized/rotating storms -- warrants continuation of
a 15% risk area.
I went for a jog when the temperature was 30°F and the windchill was 20°F. The only part of my body that felt cold was my head, which felt extremely cold. I think it's because I couldn't find my hat (it's back in North Carolina somewhere).
We wouldn't have to have a record cold month for the winter to be below average, this month which is Record Warm is only 4.4F above average, a record cold month would be about 10F below average. In other words, or one standard deviation below the mean is larger than one standard deviation above the mean. Assuming this month finishes 5F above average (looking likely at this point) and is the second warmest December on record behind 2015, January and February would have to be a cumulative 5.1F below average (so if January was 2.6F below average, February would have to be 2.5F below average) for a below average winter to occur. Needless to say, with the current pattern this is highly unlikely.
Record cold is 10 below, record warm is 5 above? . Interesting if true and yeah, you're right if that's the case then. Nice scenario on what it would take to get a below normal winter, thanks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Will we get below zero? My forecast has winds gusting to almost 60 mph Thursday night. When was the last time that happened here? Especially away from the coast, uncommon except for a few big storms.
Hi Nei. Nice to see your posts! Great question. I would have to dig a little. Speaking of digging.. .. You'll like one of the maps below..
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Mt. Washington is forecast to get a low of -32°F (really cold midlevels!) with gusts up to 115 mph. Warming up to 29°F on Sunday with freezing rain
Impressive mid level temps. We don't see these values enter the U.S every week or even month, even in winter.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Warszawa
Not gonna lie, is actually kinda cool seeing all the -20° and the -30° on the map in December! Much prefer seeing these in December as opposed to late February and March
I've been spoiled with cold snowy March's past decade and I confirmed with myself that I'd rather have December colder and snowy.
Speaking of maps... I'm posting a few.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Cold is over all of the northern US; recent cold outbreaks were cold east / mild west rather than cold north / mild south
Another thing that doesn't happen every month or winter. Kinda special. The jet is surpressed south as opposed to being amplified with a Ridge/Trough setup. Issue with this is storms are moving very fast from Pacific to Atlantic but it is giving us Pacific moisture to work with. Hence the activity lately.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Lol, I misread that as current temperatures rather than a model forecast
Looks like it wasn't so funny after all, mid 50s forecasted now. LOL. So that 57 wasn't too far off. Crazy to think, right?
Quote:
Originally Posted by ral31
The forecast is no longer showing much of a precip chance with cold early next week.
NWS is forecasting a low of 26F next Sunday night. Mostly sunny next Monday with a high of 40F.
Sorry.. I knew would be too marginal. Tough year (month) to get frozen precip in the south.. Still plenty of time. Hope things change to favor it for you.
Here's a look at the wind gust reports. Notice where the strongest winds are? First notice where the Vortex is. 478DAM southern tip Hudson Bay. Middle or base of the trough is where the highest winds are. (more forcing)
Here's a cool look at the current winds (Jet Stream) at 18,000 feet. Where are the strongest winds? Inside the trough.
Current Wind Chills 5am. Below 0F Western PA. This is all shifting East in time. Northeast tomorrow.
Snowing over the Atlantic right now. Expect Snow squalls and Lake effects down to the coasts today and tomorrow before the main storm comes Saturday.
Current Alerts.. Winter Storm Warning in the west to bone chilling in the Northeast.
There it is........Storm over Colorado heading to........................... Did I tell you how much I hate Lake Cutter storm tracks?
If it wasn't for this Arctic air we WOULD NOT be getting any snow.
But does keep forecasters on their toes with interesting swings.
Ridiculous
Quote:
National Weather Service Albany NY
516 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016
low-level cyclone moves from the Central Plains into
the Upper Midwest. Persistent warm air advection will boost 850 mb
temps upward by nearly 35C, from near -25C at 06Z Fri to near +10C
by 06Z Sun
Record cold is 10 below, record warm is 5 above? . Interesting if true and yeah, you're right if that's the case then. Nice scenario on what it would take to get a below normal winter, thanks.
Here's December 2010 in Miami Beach (The coldest December on record)
And here's December 2007. The warmest before last year broke it by 1.7F.
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. Interesting if true and yeah, you're right if that's the case then. Nice scenario on what it would take to get a below normal winter, thanks.
.. You'll like one of the maps below..
