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These maps are tricky for me to figure out exactly how cold and where the cold will be.
From my recollection, in the eastern US the areas south of the green height anomaly (southeast US) will still be very cold cause that trough will push it all the way down into Florida, while over in Europe I am sure Spain and Italy, while not in the green zone, will be much milder and closer to average.
Also George explain this shown in the two links below. One shows geopotential height anomalies over the NH in Jan 2014, and the other shows temp anomaly.
Why does Western Europe have a big negative height anomaly, yet above temps, while we have below temps in the East.
From that same image where I circled is what I'm also keeping an eye on. The more heat that's there, the more convection that builds the more the moisture and storms comes across into the U.S. We need that around in connection with the Polar Jet Stream to get those big snowstorms.
Not looking too warm in that area right now.
Good point. That region is tied to the SOI. Right now the SOI is high and in La Nina territory. It is forecasted to drop which would then warm the waters there
These maps are tricky for me to figure out exactly how cold and where the cold will be.
From my recollection, in the eastern US the areas south of the green height anomaly (southeast US) will still be very cold cause that trough will push it all the way down into Florida, while over in Europe I am sure Spain and Italy, while not in the green zone, will be much milder and closer to average.
Why is that?
It depends where the Low and High pressure originate. For Spain, they may be under the influence of the Azores High which will bring them milder air. For Florida, it too looks like it will be under the influence of the Bermuda High. Green on the map is lower heights which in turn would allow for more unsettled weather, as well as the jet stream to dip further south bringing with it colder air.
Seems as if JB and others have given up on La Nina being the dominant driver this winter and are now focusing on the warm blob in the North Pacific which is definitely more pronounced now than it was this time last year.
Good video. Interesting reminder about Long Island having 4 winters in a row with 40"+ and he's right, statistically there's less chance of another above normal snowfall winter there.
I want to point out something he said that most people don't understand...
He said.. "What was happening in the northern Pacific throughout Spring and Summer this year was a very large cooling of water that had developed and spread into the Gulf of Alaska, which is very important, but that has completely reversed in the last month. Now we're back to having very warm water in the GOA"
COMPLETELY REVERSED IN A MONTH
People forget how quickly we can go from warm to cool or cool to warm even for the oceans.
Also remember.. just because its warm now, does mean the ridge get sustained right away. Might take months, and that's if it stays warm.
Good video. Interesting reminder about Long Island having 4 winters in a row with 40"+ and he's right, statistically there's less chance of another above normal snowfall winter there.
I want to point out something he said that most people don't understand...
He said.. "What was happening in the northern Pacific throughout Spring and Summer this year was a very large cooling of water that had developed and spread into the Gulf of Alaska, which is very important, but that has completely reversed in the last month. Now we're back to having very warm water in the GOA"
COMPLETELY REVERSED IN A MONTH
People forget how quickly we can go from warm to cool or cool to warm even for the oceans.
Also remember.. just because its warm now, does mean the ridge get sustained right away. Might take months, and that's if it stays warm.
SST's did cool thanks to El Nino, but even in June 2016, GOA had positive anomalies
I Think the model's are overdoing the ridge and partially misinterpreting the trough in the east. I Think that there be a ridge in the GOA with ridging in the southwestern US from California to Utah and southern Oregon and southern Idaho, But with average heights over the pacific northwest and troughing in western Canada originating from eastern Alaska southeastwards into the central and eastern US. The would also be a smaller ridge over the southeastern US. I think the reason Models are putting low pressure over the western great lakes is because storms will be tracking from the southwest through the great lakes. Storms would also be tracking from the NNW from Canada towards the great lakes as well. Basically the pattern we had in 2013-14 but with the addition of an active southern jet and ridging in the southeastern US.
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Europe may also see a colder winter
