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Yeah that other ensemble posted a few pages earlier in the thread is much more likely to happen due to the negative nao, the weak La Nina and the blob. However there should be very few siberian arctic blasts due to blocking, but a lot of clippers and canadian airmasses.
It is rather funny that the warm PDO cools the US in winter, but warms the rest of the world, and the cold PDO drops global temps and gives the US the winter of 2012. Amazing how that works. I hate the positive PDO and want it gone forever.
Even I, who otherwise would be cheering this jamstec run on, realize it is ridiculous to expect every corner of North America to have a mild winter. It never works like that. One side has ridge, the other trough. When have we ever had a winter where the whole of North America was above average?
Yeah that other ensemble posted a few pages earlier in the thread is much more likely to happen due to the negative nao, the weak La Nina and the blob. However there should be very few siberian arctic blasts due to blocking, but a lot of clippers and canadian airmasses.
Are you forgetting about SSW events, and how the broken down polar vortex has only one place in the world that it likes to settle down onto? You know where that is right? That PV will visit the eastern US more than once this winter, as even during a very strong Nino it came right down and gave NYC its first subzero reading in years. It won't go down into Europe nor Asia, but it will most certainly make an appearance over Montreal or Ontario somewhere this winter with that blob.
Location: João Pessoa,Brazil(The easternmost point of Americas)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
Are you forgetting about SSW events, and how the broken down polar vortex has only one place in the world that it likes to settle down onto? You know where that is right? That PV will visit the eastern US more than once this winter, as even during a very strong Nino it came right down and gave NYC its first subzero reading in years. It won't go down into Europe nor Asia, but it will most certainly make an appearance over Montreal or Ontario somewhere this winter with that blob.
I remember it down in East Asia in Late January,Seoul got -10/-18C and Shanghai at the same latitude as Jacksonville got -4C/-7C.
Also George explain this shown in the two links below. One shows geopotential height anomalies over the NH in Jan 2014, and the other shows temp anomaly.
Why does Western Europe have a big negative height anomaly, yet above temps, while we have below temps in the East.
Looks like they had troughs off the Atlantic ocean, which brought them oceanic air, while our troughs brought air in from Canada/Arctic. In other words different sources of low pressure
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons
Even I, who otherwise would be cheering this jamstec run on, realize it is ridiculous to expect every corner of North America to have a mild winter. It never works like that. One side has ridge, the other trough. When have we ever had a winter where the whole of North America was above average?
We can have wall to wall warmth. Almost happened last winter thanks to El Nino.....
Also close during El Nino 2005-06
But this forecast doesn't make sense given the SST pattern. What I see happening is big ridge over PNW, deep trough over Central US, with the jet riding up the East Coast. UNLESS you get a -AO or Greenland block to happen then the East Coast will see a trough as well. Is JAMSTEC seeing other teleconnections that we are not? Doubt it. I think it's just wrong. And I'm not just saying this because I want a cold snowy winter either.
Last edited by chicagogeorge; 09-16-2016 at 05:28 AM..
Just compare SST's now with Jan 2014 and in 1983. SST in GOA look warmer now than they did in Sep 2013. Atlantic SST off the coast look similar. I can't help but think that this area will be driving the winter.
And another thing, that the Jamstec says warm blob stick around all winter into next spring. Kind of odd that the JAMSTEC predicts those + SST for the GOA but yet torches CONUS this winter.
Whats crazy is that... this is it. This is our bottom. Right now. Which means we level off or back towards Neutral/Nino. Crazy. You can see it with that graph.. nothing pointing to colder more deeper Nina look than we are right now.
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