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This is really a tough call. I don't get paid to do this and I don't forecast so I leave it up to the "pros". It will be fun to see what is being forecasted and what will happen. I gotta say its going to be tough to snow in central gulf states or the Carolina coasts. We'll see.
Quote:
Originally Posted by muslim12
Seems one of the local Mets brought up the euro snowfall map because people are mentioning a foot of snow. How often on here do we start a thread for Southern snow? Exciting times !
New 12z Euro data for Raleigh. Looks like rain Friday afternoon and evening then changes to snow overnight. Check out the air mass. Wow! -15C at 5000'. Sunday night and Monday gonna be cold there. Snow might not melt much.
This is really a tough call. I don't get paid to do this and I don't forecast so I leave it up to the "pros". It will be fun to see what is being forecasted and what will happen. I gotta say its going to be tough to snow in central gulf states or the Carolina coasts. We'll see.
New 12z Euro data for Raleigh. Looks like rain Friday afternoon and evening then changes to snow overnight. Check out the air mass. Wow! -15C at 5000'. Sunday night and Monday gonna be cold there. Snow might not melt much.
-13c??? A bit too extreme and goes off the assumption of a good snowpack. Hopefully it's wrong , anything below 13degrees Fahrenheit is a no from me. I'll pass, gfs doesn't show a low that cold here because it lacks the snowpack, when it didn't It did show Temps that cold.
Looking at the Euro12z model from today, Northeast actually see snow Friday & Saturday too. Believe it or not Long Island and coastal CT have a better chance than Hartford.
Here's why..
There are 2 storms back to back (imagine if were big snowstorms)
First one. Friday morning (NO BIG DEAL). Storm track staying well over the ocean to miss us with the heavier precip. There might be spots in Maryland and Delaware that see moderate snows for an hour or so, more than points north.
Second one, the bigger one. Saturday evening. The one that could drop snows in Gulf states and Mid Atlantic. Euro shows the position of the storm right there Saturday 7pm.
With this, it would snow in NJ, Long Island, Coastal CT and Eastern MA. (NOT ALOT).
BUT WHAT IF THIS SHIFTS JUST 50 MILES?????? Then we'll get some accumulations.
I AM RULING OUT A BIG SNOWSTORM THOUGH. I doubt it shifts west 200 miles to give us a big snowstorm.
But now you see how truly close we were to getting back to back snowstorms in the northeast. Literally couple hundred miles.
From NWS NY mentions the Polar Vortex, the cold air, and the "potential" for a westward shift closer to the coast to bring us more snow Saturday. (not the consensus at the moment) and the light snow for Friday for this area.
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
439 PM EST Tue Jan 3 2017
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models in good agreement with a shift to a colder regime as the polar jet takes a southward dip into the northeast quarter of the
nation. The short term climate signal, the AO, also favors this
colder pattern.
The uncertainty in this period lies in the storm track...with a
couple of opportunities for interaction of the northern and
southern stream. The sensitivity for the forecast lies first in
the evolution of an elongated northern stream shortwave currently
over the NW US and E PAC; specifically how much of the energy
moves east, in what stream, and at what what time. Then secondly
with the strength of a polar low diving south of Hudson`s Bay for
the weekend.
The first sequence of events will determine how close a
progressive southern low tracks to the coast Thu Night into Fri
and how much moisture is available ahead of an approaching
northern stream shortwave. A low-moderate potential exists for a
light snowfall at this time.
Next...the combo of the first and
second sequence of events will determine how close a stronger and
moisture richer coastal low will track to the coast Sat into Sat
Night...for a potentially heavier snow event. At this
point...based on aforementioned complexity of
interaction...predictability is low but will bear watching over
the next few days.
Polar high pressure and drier/cold weather follows for Sunday
into Monday.
I was looking at the NAM model, and noticed something odd. Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I'm not really sure why it's showing snow accumulations in areas where it only seems to show rainfall. Does anyone know why that is?
I was looking at the NAM model, and noticed something odd. Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I'm not really sure why it's showing snow accumulations in areas where it only seems to show rainfall. Does anyone know why that is?
NAM does that. I remember last winter, it showed several inches accumulating along the SC coast. It turned out to be just a 40 F rain storm. It always seems to underestimate snow melt in the atmosphere in well above freezing temps.
I was looking at the NAM model, and noticed something odd. Maybe I'm just ignorant, but I'm not really sure why it's showing snow accumulations in areas where it only seems to show rainfall. Does anyone know why that is?
Nice catch! lol. Not even the 850mb temps aloft support snow there. . There's a reason it printed that out but you would have to ask Levi why. He'll know. He'll answer. Post the image too. Might be using another algorithm to print the snow maps. Most just use the 850mb freezing line which isn't the best either.
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Weather Guy
Weather underground is now showing a 35% chance of snow 8 A.M. Saturday. I'm trying not to get my hopes up.
Good luck! Hope you get something. Probably last chance of year? Who knows. Maybe not.
The bulk of the moisture for this storm will definitely be south of the colder air. For example as per Wunderground, Saint Simons Island is expecting almost an inch and a half of rain from this storm, whereas I'm only expected to get 0.6 inches of rain.
Augusta is only expected to get like 0.4 inches of rain followed by a light mix, so if any changeover occurs Saturday, expect it to be light and not accumulate unless the moisture track trends north.
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. There's a reason it printed that out but you would have to 
