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Keep us posted if it changes. Gonna be close for you.
Boggles my mind that some think "preparing" is worse than panicking. Wouldn't you rather have a heads up a week before? At least mention it. If it doesn't happen, then good. But to say "hey, we're getting snow" just 2 days before I think creates the panic. Especially down south. At least people could have 5-8 days time to take off or rearrange plans for day of.
Another peeve of mine is NWS or forecasters can say we're getting 4 inches of rain then drop it down to 2" but Heaven Forbid they say we're getting 6 inches of snow dropping it to 3". So funny rain totals can start high, not snow.
GFS12z. Northerly Winds. Suppressed Jet. Gulf of Mexico moisture, Cold enough for snow on north side of Jet.
Saturday 4am frame.
To the purple: For several reasons a lot of people either don't want to, can't, or won't change their plans. Some of these people get mad at the early mention of it because it gives them the impression that there could be a high impact event. But if it turns out to be a bust, then the both the skeptics and snow-lovers get upset for being misled and point fingers at the forecasters for "crying wolf." And the next time the possibility crops up, either the meteorologists are far too cautious or people don't listen and just their luck, it DOES happen and their (I should say OUR considering I'm a Southerner) communities are CRIPPLED... which brings me to your next point...
To the blue: 1. Winter weather isn't exactly a guarantee for us Southerners every year. In fact, depending on specific region, some of us can go several years without seeing so much as a flurry and then BAM! we get hit with 2-3 inches (or more!) of winter precip. It happens often enough for it not to be completely unheard of but not quite often enough for us to be used to it. 2. I may be wrong, but I think that winter precip is a lot more fickle and tricky to forecast than rain is (especially around here!), and we see rain a lot more often than we see snow. And it doesn't take much accumulation for winter weather to be a serious hamper to travel. I think what grinds people's gears is the uncertainty involved here. Combine that with "media-rologists" who make outrageous "wish-casts" (ex. "a foot of snow for Atlanta, GA!) and the lack of prep and infrastructure to deal with this type of event, and you've got a recipe for disaster. It's no damned wonder that winter weather is such a landmine. IMO, it's up there on the list with politics, religion, and climate change!
Nice summary! Sometimes I fail to post total qpf maps to see how much liquid and where the moisture is. Hey, its winter, I like snow maps better. lol
But yeah, usually the heaviest precip is near the front or Jet stream axis unless its a powerhouse storm then all the moisture gets fed into the cold air and heaviest precip would be on the cold side as well. Not the case with this one. That's why it must be a headache for forecasters, where does that boundary end up sitting or how far does it go??
James Spann is located in Alabama. He posts cool stuff a lot..
By the way, James Spann hosts a snow called WeatherBrains. This episode talks about why the issue of winter weather forecasting (and weather forecasting in general) is so charged in the Deep South.
That's not probable, lows that cold is not even once in a lifetime, more like once every 150 years all time cold. Thinking the GFS is overestimating the power of the snowpack. On another note the highways and roads are salted.
Lmao. Now the Euro is the most aggressive with the storm.
No, it just does what I said it would, shift nw and it did. Trend should continue over next 2 days. If I'm going to see bitter cold because of the snow it can shift nw all the way to west virginia.
2nd wave... Gulf of Mexico moisture into Polar air.
Results... Accuweather forecast. Many are gonna get hammered. But who?? There's always lucky and unlucky ones with EVERY storm. No idea where the heaviest axis will be exacty
2nd wave... Gulf of Mexico moisture into Polar air.
Results... Accuweather forecast. Many are gonna get hammered. But who?? There's always lucky and unlucky ones with EVERY storm. No idea where the heaviest axis will be exacty
They have heaviest axis of snow much further west than any model does. The scenario is plausible only if models follow a NW trend.
Watch Bernie's new Video. Watch. Let me know if link doesn't work. He explains don't look at the surface and precip maps ONLY. Gotta look at the upper level as well.
He goes through the models and explains. He mentions different locations and what has to happen. NOT a big snowstorm for Big cities but snow "MIGHT" be pushed back enough to drop "some"
he says he doesn't like their snowfall total map yet.
I've been following this storm on AmWx. I think I'll see some accumulations but I wish I was more in the Oxford/Henderson/Roanoke Rapids area.
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