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I wasn't being serious, just hinting at the fact that 1c above average would probably mean we'd still have cool days and mild nights, with loads of rain and cloud, as we haven't had a decent summer in ages.
A cooler than normal summer would be interesting, seems like we haven't had one of those since the 90s lol.
Those color code things they do can be really misleading though... 'red' should only be used if the average temps are gonna be like 10+ or higher or something, not 2 or 3. What does 'much above average' mean exactly, don't they say?
Some forecasts (be they based on analogs, ocean temperatures, or models) say warmer, some say cooler; some say one pattern, others the opposite pattern. In other words, this year we have the usual sum of summer seasonal forecasting 2 months out - no one really knows what will happen. My usual recommendation - just wait and see what happens.
" The graphic below is the three ENSO predictions made by three models. The dash line is when El Nino arrives. Our team has been watching the trends of ENSO very closely. We have noticed that winds over the central Pacific are still not supportive of El Nino. Water depth temperatures are still running cooler in this area. Eastern areas off the South American coast warmed significantly in March. However, over the past week, we have seen a decrease in SST anomalies in this area. Once again, we need to stress the spring barrier of the models that can give false trends. New trends show a slower progression into El Nino, possibly holding off until mid- to late summer, which has been our overall thinking. This El Nino is not expected to be strong, but more weak to moderate, peaking out sometime in the late fall.
Other tele-connection predictions...
ENSO - Becoming a weak El Nino
PDO - Neutral to slightly positive
QBO - Positive perhaps not going back to negative until mid- or late winter
AMO - Positive but trending neutral "
Quote:
So when you look at the all the teleconnections and other factors, these are the best years and weights put together. But years like 2012, 1972 and 1957 are still floating out there that can be pulled into this mix. We need to see what the overall spring will wind up to determine the best years and weights. The analogs on the map below are 1963 (2x), 1965, 1991, 2002 (3x), 2006 (2x) and 2009.
Seems like same old, same old. June being really hot, and relief arriving in August.
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Summer summer summer
