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Old 05-18-2017, 04:25 AM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,597,260 times
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All those months were sunnier than average here, which means it won't be accurate for us as it's impossible for us to record average sunshine in summer these days.

Heathrow didn't record sun in 1952, but another station recorded 245 hrs.

If it does happen, you can bet 100% that a warm and sunny June will be followed by a cool, cloudy July and an extremely cold and cloudy August, just like 1957.

Last edited by B87; 05-18-2017 at 04:42 AM..

 
Old 05-18-2017, 05:18 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
27,606 posts, read 14,604,784 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
1952:29.4C
1996:26.8C
2005:29.7C
2006:25.7C
2014:27.9C


Only June 2006 was below normal. I'll take those odds.
June of 05,06&14 were all hotter than normal here, not sure about 52 or 96 though
 
Old 05-18-2017, 09:42 AM
 
Location: Seoul
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I beleieve NYC has not had a cold summer since 2009, 2014 was smack average, altho it was very boring in terms of heat. Most 90s days came in August and September when summer already ended altho the way things are going September is practically a summer month anyway, and the first half of October is too
 
Old 05-18-2017, 10:03 AM
 
29,523 posts, read 19,620,154 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
All those months were sunnier than average here, which means it won't be accurate for us as it's impossible for us to record average sunshine in summer these days.

Heathrow didn't record sun in 1952, but another station recorded 245 hrs.

If it does happen, you can bet 100% that a warm and sunny June will be followed by a cool, cloudy July and an extremely cold and cloudy August, just like 1957.

Here is a composite of what those summers looked like after a May with a very strong -NAO





 
Old 05-18-2017, 10:13 AM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,597,260 times
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The following July/August here...

1952: average July, poor August
1996: average July, average August
2005: average July, average August
2006: hottest July, poor August
2014: hot July, poor August

Based on that, we will have our 12th cloudy August in a row. Do you think we can get 15 or 20 in a row?
 
Old 05-18-2017, 11:21 AM
 
Location: Top of the South, NZ
22,216 posts, read 21,676,363 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
The following July/August here...

1952: average July, poor August
1996: average July, average August
2005: average July, average August
2006: hottest July, poor August
2014: hot July, poor August

Based on that, we will have our 12th cloudy August in a row. Do you think we can get 15 or 20 in a row?
Is the run of August being cloudy due to frontal rain cloud, or to increased cloud from convection?
 
Old 05-18-2017, 11:28 AM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,597,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe90 View Post
Is the run of August being cloudy due to frontal rain cloud, or to increased cloud from convection?
Convection mostly. The vast majority of summer days since 2007 have sunny mornings and evenings, it's just cloudy for most of the day. The normal pattern is to start off sunny, be partly cloudy through the day, and maybe a shower overnight.

August 2004 was the wettest on record, yet had average sunshine hours.
 
Old 05-18-2017, 12:02 PM
 
Location: Top of the South, NZ
22,216 posts, read 21,676,363 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
Convection mostly. The vast majority of summer days since 2007 have sunny mornings and evenings, it's just cloudy for most of the day. The normal pattern is to start off sunny, be partly cloudy through the day, and maybe a shower overnight.

August 2004 was the wettest on record, yet had average sunshine hours.
That's not so bad then. Days with heavy convective build up, feel the most summery imo - warmer nights as well.

How much rain did August 2004 get?
 
Old 05-18-2017, 12:10 PM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,597,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe90 View Post
That's not so bad then. Days with heavy convective build up, feel the most summery imo - warmer nights as well.

How much rain did August 2004 get?
107.8 mm on 12 days. 7 days with thunderstorms.

They are bad when there are numerous days that are completely overcast (which never used to happen in summer), and average highs of only 21-22c. August 2008 and 2010 were the 2nd and 3rd cloudiest on record, and plenty of other recent Augusts make the top 10.
 
Old 05-18-2017, 12:44 PM
 
Location: Top of the South, NZ
22,216 posts, read 21,676,363 times
Reputation: 7608
Quote:
Originally Posted by B87 View Post
107.8 mm on 12 days. 7 days with thunderstorms.

They are bad when there are numerous days that are completely overcast (which never used to happen in summer), and average highs of only 21-22c. August 2008 and 2010 were the 2nd and 3rd cloudiest on record, and plenty of other recent Augusts make the top 10.
Okay, that sounds different to convective days here, in which only a third to half of the sky will have cloud.

107mm as a monthly record certainly shows how dry London is - have had three 24hr periods here this summer, which exceeded 107mm.
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