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Old 04-13-2018, 07:01 AM
Status: "A solution in search of a problem" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: New York Area
34,506 posts, read 16,591,230 times
Reputation: 29686

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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
It will be a fail for my area for sure. The last so called super El nino was a total bust for my area compared to the 97-98 years when we had over 30" of rain from Dec till March. That was a real El Nino and i would love that every winter.
We are in a phase that amplifies La Niñas and makes them more frequent. Concomitantly El Niños are rarer and more attenuated in their effects.

A good example of another strong, borderline super El Niño whose effects were attenuated was 1972-3. There were frequent cold waves in the Upper Midwest, and almost no snow in the U.S. Northeast for example. Both are not characteristic of a super El Niño. But there was unusual cold in the Southeast and a fair amount of far-Western rain, as well as virtually no hurricane seasons in 1972 or 1973, very characteristic of super El Niños. Hurricane Agnes, in June 1972 was more of a hybrid storm than a true tropical storm.

 
Old 04-13-2018, 09:54 AM
 
30,202 posts, read 20,936,663 times
Reputation: 11831
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
We are in a phase that amplifies La Niñas and makes them more frequent. Concomitantly El Niños are rarer and more attenuated in their effects.

A good example of another strong, borderline super El Niño whose effects were attenuated was 1972-3. There were frequent cold waves in the Upper Midwest, and almost no snow in the U.S. Northeast for example. Both are not characteristic of a super El Niño. But there was unusual cold in the Southeast and a fair amount of far-Western rain, as well as virtually no hurricane seasons in 1972 or 1973, very characteristic of super El Niños. Hurricane Agnes, in June 1972 was more of a hybrid storm than a true tropical storm.
1972 was before i was keeping weather records. I remember the El Nino of 83 was active in my part of FL.

I was fishing offshore back in them days and a front was coming thru every weekend into May. Feb and March we could just about never fish 80 to 100 miles offshore as it was so windy with active fronts. Other than 83 and 1997-98 i don't remember any other El Nino's doing much for my part of FL.
 
Old 04-13-2018, 09:59 AM
 
Location: Fortaleza, Northeast of Brazil
3,901 posts, read 6,707,799 times
Reputation: 2360
Can La Niña stay for 40 days more, please?

I'm asking nicely.
 
Old 04-13-2018, 10:32 AM
 
30,202 posts, read 20,936,663 times
Reputation: 11831
Quote:
Originally Posted by MalaMan View Post
Can La Niña stay for 40 days more, please?

I'm asking nicely.
I am sure it will stay for 400 more days.
 
Old 04-13-2018, 11:24 AM
Status: "A solution in search of a problem" (set 20 days ago)
 
Location: New York Area
34,506 posts, read 16,591,230 times
Reputation: 29686
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
1972 was before i was keeping weather records. I remember the El Nino of 83 was active in my part of FL.

I was fishing offshore back in them days and a front was coming thru every weekend into May. Feb and March we could just about never fish 80 to 100 miles offshore as it was so windy with active fronts. Other than 83 and 1997-98 i don't remember any other El Nino's doing much for my part of FL.
1982-3 and 1997-8 were very similar. The main differences were: 1) El Chichon created enough cooling to make the Megalpolis Blizzard possibly on February 11-12, 1983; and 2) 1997-8 occurred as we were ending "warm phase" so the plunge into La Niña was faster, similar to that in 1973.

But otherwise the two were similar.

1972-3 was very much like 2009-10, except with the I-95 cities getting snow. The summers of 1973 and 2010 were very similar with some early heat in April-June and, a major similarity, blistering heat waves spanning several days around the end of August and beginning of September. I remember in particular one day in August 1973 when it 98° or 99° when my friend and I took a dip in his pool and then cycled four miles to my house. And a jog in August 2010 when it was 97° and I saw a rabid coyote on my route.
 
Old 04-13-2018, 04:54 PM
 
30,202 posts, read 20,936,663 times
Reputation: 11831
Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
1982-3 and 1997-8 were very similar. The main differences were: 1) El Chichon created enough cooling to make the Megalpolis Blizzard possibly on February 11-12, 1983; and 2) 1997-8 occurred as we were ending "warm phase" so the plunge into La Niña was faster, similar to that in 1973.

But otherwise the two were similar.

1972-3 was very much like 2009-10, except with the I-95 cities getting snow. The summers of 1973 and 2010 were very similar with some early heat in April-June and, a major similarity, blistering heat waves spanning several days around the end of August and beginning of September. I remember in particular one day in August 1973 when it 98° or 99° when my friend and I took a dip in his pool and then cycled four miles to my house. And a jog in August 2010 when it was 97° and I saw a rabid coyote on my route.
We never got any rain out the last so caller super El Nino, but south FL did. Everything was to our south.
 
Old 04-30-2018, 06:30 AM
 
29,406 posts, read 19,495,072 times
Reputation: 4500
Bastardi thinks we will have a Modoki El Nino by this fall and winter

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...17939443384321
 
Old 04-30-2018, 06:34 AM
 
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
4,876 posts, read 4,180,396 times
Reputation: 1908
^^^^^^^^^^^^^


Don’t get me wrong, but don’t Modoki El Niño’s usually mean an unusually cold and dry winter season for the Midwest and plains states??.
 
Old 04-30-2018, 09:22 AM
 
29,406 posts, read 19,495,072 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
^^^^^^^^^^^^^


Don’t get me wrong, but don’t Modoki El Niño’s usually mean an unusually cold and dry winter season for the Midwest and plains states??.



Yes, based off the analog years, Modoki El Ninos are cold and usually dry




 
Old 04-30-2018, 11:01 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,860,693 times
Reputation: 5883
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Yes, based off the analog years, Modoki El Ninos are cold and usually dry




Well of course he would wouldn't he. Can't dare call for an above avg winter to please his fossil fuel clients. He is useless.
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