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Why am I the only one voting for Bahamas? Seems like most models agree with this...
Yes, however, most of us are focused on where it will landfall in the US. We know it will landfall in the Bahamas... its after that most of us are interested in. Cambium should have made the poll where we could vote multiple times.
Yes, however, most of us are focused on where it will landfall in the US. We know it will landfall in the Bahamas... its after that most of us are interested in. Cambium should have made the poll where we could vote multiple times.
More fun to see who might be right so far out.
I agree, the Bahamas are a safe bet. More interested in seeing where it goes afterwards.
Maybe going close to coast but then recurving out to sea with no U.S. landfall? Right now NOAA looks like it's keeping the heaviest rainfall offshore through next Sunday evening.
Maybe going close to coast but then recurving out to sea with no U.S. landfall? Right now NOAA looks like it's keeping the heaviest rainfall offshore through next Sunday evening.
Certainly a possibility. Maybe just brushing Florida and the Carolina coastline. Despite storms often going out to sea, there seems to be a lot of talk about the storm being pulled directly into the US. I'm sure Cambium and others with more technical knowledge could elaborate.
Certainly a possibility. Maybe just brushing Florida and the Carolina coastline. Despite storms often going out to sea, there seems to be a lot of talk about the storm being pulled directly into the US. I'm sure Cambium and others with more technical knowledge could elaborate.
Climatology favors the storm going out to sea. However, two things are preventing that; the first and most obvious reason is a large dome of high pressure in the Atlantic ocean that is currently blocking the storms escape north; rather, forcing it on a WSW trajectory for the time being. Second thing is a trough that is supposed to swing through, the timing and strength of this trough is the key, this trough comes before the storm and pulls it on a more westward trajectory. If the trough is strong enough, it will quickly pull Irma westward and possibly catch it and push the high further east, creating a window for Irma to escape northeast too. Second thing that could pull it out to sea is a large area of low pressure that comes behind the trough over southeast Canada that pulls Irma eastward. Only the Euro currently shows that area of low pressure.
Notice at hour 162 how the GFS has the Atlantic high further west, closing off any escape out to sea, and also has an area of high pressure over Pennsylvania that would serve to stall the storms speed, slowing it down.
Now look at the Euro at hour 168; the Atlantic high pressure is much weaker and further east and south, the high pressure over Pennsylvania is further west, allowing for that area of low pressure over southeast Canada to sink south instead of being blocked off by that high like in the GFS. This creates a narrow path for Irma to escape. 18z GFS is rolling now, we will see what she brings.
Hopefully Cambium chimes in, I don't normally make posts this in depth because of my limited knowledge.
Climatology favors the storm going out to sea. However, two things are preventing that; the first and most obvious reason is a large dome of high pressure in the Atlantic ocean that is currently blocking the storms escape north; rather, forcing it on a WSW trajectory for the time being. Second thing is a trough that is supposed to swing through, the timing and strength of this trough is the key, this trough comes before the storm and pulls it on a more westward trajectory. If the trough is strong enough, it will quickly pull Irma westward and possibly catch it and push the high further east, creating a window for Irma to escape northeast too. Second thing that could pull it out to sea is a large area of low pressure that comes behind the trough over southeast Canada that pulls Irma eastward. Only the Euro currently shows that area of low pressure.
Notice at hour 162 how the GFS has the Atlantic high further west, closing off any escape out to sea, and also has an area of high pressure over Pennsylvania that would serve to stall the storms speed, slowing it down.
Now look at the Euro at hour 168; the Atlantic high pressure is much weaker and further east and south, the high pressure over Pennsylvania is further west, allowing for that area of low pressure over southeast Canada to sink south instead of being blocked off by that high like in the GFS. This creates a narrow path for Irma to escape. 18z GFS is rolling now, we will see what she brings.
Hopefully Cambium chimes in, I don't normally make posts this in depth because of my limited knowledge.
Yes, the high pressure in the Atlantic makes sense. What I find more interesting is that trough possibly pulling the storm in, or at least keeping it close to the coast.
Yes, the high pressure in the Atlantic makes sense. What I find more interesting is that trough possible pulling the storm in, or at least keeping it close to the coast.
Check the autumn thread, cambium says its very unlikely the trough will pull it in, rather Irma may merge and ride the trough so to speak.
Check the autumn thread, cambium says its very unlikely the trough will pull it in, rather Irma may merge and ride the trough so to speak.
What's the difference between merging and being pulled in? Still sounds like it would be getting scooped up by the trough. Maybe I'm overthinking it.
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