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We got 1.78mm of rain on Tuesday this week, it was the first time it had rained since August 23rd. Now high pressure has taken over again. This isn't typical though. This was the first Sept thru November with no rain since 1938
1.78mm" ? I never did my rainfall that way. That would be like .002" i guess. Well i took the little pill last nite and went into a heavy sleep at 9pm, but sometime during the nite i woke up and heard heavy rain. I was shocked to see 1.10" in the rain gauge this morning , and i mean shocked.
Last Nov and Dec i had ZERO rainfall. So getting 1.7" In Nov and 1.10" so far this months just shattters last year this time. So for Nov and Dec of this year i have blown away my total of around 2.5" from Oct of 2016 till May of 2017. Just hope Jan thru May of next year won't be as dry as last year.
This mornings setup... Waiting for the snow to start here. It slowed down a few hours, waiting for that Great Lakes trough to pivot towards the coast. I should thank that Atlantic Ridge
Good disco by Upton, only highlighting the timing thing mentioned, and the "dynamics" talk.
Quote:
National Weather Service New York NY
438 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2017
.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure along the Carolina coast tracks south and east of
Long Island today, and off the New England coast tonight. A
series of weak fronts will move through the area Sunday into
Monday. Another area of low pressure impacts the region on
Tuesday and Wednesday. Brief high pressure on Thursday is
followed by another late week low pressure system.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery showing strong shortwave energy diving down the
backside of Great Lakes trough early this morning, helping to
amplify the longwave trough and begin lifting an intense
southern stream shortwave up the coast today.
Quiet a bit of
convection developing through Florida and off the SE US coast in
subtropical moisture feed ahead of these dynamic features.
Shortwave energy will continue to race up the coast today, with
at least the eastern 1/2 to 2/3rd of CWA under a favorable right
rear of 170-180 kt jet dynamics. At the surface, low pressure
tracks from the Carolina Coast early this morning to near the 40/70 lat/lon benchmark by this evening.
Plenty of radar returns being sense overhead, but dry-low
levels are slowing progress of snow onset this morning. Latest
NAM and HRRR suggesting that snow will be light and scattered
for most of the area through early to mid morning, before
picking up in intensity thereafter as trough axis approaches
neutral tilt and retrogrades moisture and offshore frontal
boundary towards the coast, coupling with increasing large scale
lift. This fits what is being seen on radar with steady precip
axis still down across the Mid-Atlantic States to just 50 se of
Montauk Pt. Thermal profiles would support snow across almost
all the areas, outside of some initial mixing with rain at onset
for city/LI.
Increasingly deep layered lift tapping into a sub-tropical
moisture feed offshore should allow for snow to overspread the
entire region from SE to NW late this morning into early
afternoon, and continuing through this evening for much of the
area. The slower snowfall onset is accompanied by a slower
tapering of snow tonight due to slower progression of system.
W/W/A`s issued this afternoon are still in effect, with only
slight changes to snowfall. Models are still indicating some
weak mid-level frontogenesis and negative epv aloft across
LI/CT which signals potential for some moderate snow banding in
the afternoon/evening. This presents a low to moderate
probability of 1/2 to 1 inch per hour snow fall rates in the
afternoon and evening in vicinity of the warning area. Models
have trended farther west with qpf axis, which has increased the
likelihood for 3 to 6 inches of snow across much of the
advisory area, and 2 to 4 inches of snow into Orange County,
where advisory has been expanded into.
In terms of ptype, thermal profiles are cold enough for most of
the region to be in the form of snow. But an 850-950 hpa warm
layer still appears that it could make inroads into far se
portions of the area late this aft/eve to result in a mixing
with or changeover to rain as low pressure make the closest
approach. The reason for this is that northern/southern stream
phasing of energies does not start taking place until late
today/this evening as the low/mid level low is tracking SE of
LI, which does not allow for enough tightening of the thermal
gradient to ensure cold air all the way to the coast through the
event. Based on an ensemble of thermal profiles, the south fork
of LI has the highest probability a period of mixing with rain
and sleet this afternoon into evening, possibly working
northwest into the north fork of LI and SE New London County in
the evening.
In terms of QPF, models have wavered a bit from run to run and
between each other with QPF but generally still depicting a
range of 1/2 to 3/4 of an inch of liquid equivalent across LI/CT
(highest east), 4 to 6 tenths across NYC/NJ metro and SW CT/SE
NY border, tapering to 1/4 to 4 tenths of an inch for Orange
county. With boundary layer and surface temps holding around
freezing along the coast during the event, and upper 20s to
lower 30s across interior, snow ratios not expected to be too
much above 7-10 inches of snow to 1 inch of liquid.
In terms of snowfall, based on P-type and dynamics mentioned above,
still expecting 5 to 7 inches of snow for SE CT and Eastern LI
(except for far SE portions due to mixing). Farther west a
solid advisory level snow expected, with 3 to 6 inches to around
the NY/NJ metro and the Hudson River. NOTE: Based on the slower
onset of steadier snow, marginal surface temps, and diurnal
solar insolation, expecting roadway snow accumulation to become
more of a concern and hazard starting in the mid to late
afternoon through the evening.
Once again accumulating snow will be slightly slower to taper off
than what appeared 12 hrs ago, until longwave trough axis
begins moving into the region, with snow tapering off across
the NYC metro by around midnight and late night across Eastern
LI/SE CT.
1st flakes of the season here now. And it begin. Finally!
Didn't realize it snowed down at the Florida panhandle coast.
Radar loop and who's reporting what past 4 hrs. 4:30-8:30amEST
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