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Old 02-03-2018, 04:03 PM
 
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Bastardi's spring and summer analog forecast



Summer looks quite warm. Well, I'll be in Greece for all of July and early August...

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Old 02-03-2018, 05:03 PM
 
Location: Upstate New York
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Those analogs imply that we might get some rain in the great lakes and northeast during spring. However although the dominant pattern since July as been a ridge/west trough/east combo the eastern trough has mostly taken the form of a dominant Canadian/Arctic surface high rather than a surface low. If this continental-type pattern continues into the spring and summer like the pacific jet pattern did last year; then there is high chance of drought this summer, especially if a ridge develops in the east as we approach summer. The potential exists for this summer being an absolute furnace in the central and east CONUS.
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Old 02-04-2018, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, Louisiana
5,026 posts, read 4,328,832 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Bastardi's spring and summer analog forecast



Summer looks quite warm. Well, I'll be in Greece for all of July and early August...
Hopefully we don't get a repeat of 2011...
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Old 02-04-2018, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, BC
769 posts, read 477,086 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CH86 View Post
Those analogs imply that we might get some rain in the great lakes and northeast during spring. However although the dominant pattern since July as been a ridge/west trough/east combo the eastern trough has mostly taken the form of a dominant Canadian/Arctic surface high rather than a surface low. If this continental-type pattern continues into the spring and summer like the pacific jet pattern did last year; then there is high chance of drought this summer, especially if a ridge develops in the east as we approach summer. The potential exists for this summer being an absolute furnace in the central and east CONUS.
If a ridge does indeed develop in the east in the coming months, I hope it lasts through next Spring at least. I don't think I'll be able to deal with yet another W ridge/ E trough winter.
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Old 02-04-2018, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Tippecanoe County, Indiana
26,374 posts, read 46,227,302 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpvan View Post
If a ridge does indeed develop in the east in the coming months, I hope it lasts through next Spring at least. I don't think I'll be able to deal with yet another W ridge/ E trough winter.
I have a bad feeling it will be a disastrous drought 2018 for most of the southern Plains and southwest. By the time February ends there might be one or two minor chances of precipitation. The wet season ends in California by March/April.
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Old 02-07-2018, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Slow transition to Spring for MidWest & NorthEast says accuweather.

"Temperatures will ride a roller coaster in the central and northern Plains, with short-lived warmups arriving at times.

"In April, we could see a pretty good bubble burst in the central Plains states where temperatures are going to take off for a while," Pastelok said. However, they're likely to reverse for a time in May"

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/...98979798446080
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Old 02-07-2018, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Bastardi's spring and summer analog forecast



Summer looks quite warm. Well, I'll be in Greece for all of July and early August...

Looks normal for us which is fine by me. No hot summer with Southwest winds and I'm happy.
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Old 02-07-2018, 02:44 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,849,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Slow transition to Spring for MidWest & NorthEast says accuweather.

"Temperatures will ride a roller coaster in the central and northern Plains, with short-lived warmups arriving at times.

"In April, we could see a pretty good bubble burst in the central Plains states where temperatures are going to take off for a while," Pastelok said. However, they're likely to reverse for a time in May"

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/...98979798446080

Nothing new there. Seems to be the new normal that March is now another winter month.
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Old 02-07-2018, 02:46 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,849,170 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpvan View Post
If a ridge does indeed develop in the east in the coming months, I hope it lasts through next Spring at least. I don't think I'll be able to deal with yet another W ridge/ E trough winter.

The default is always a ridge in the West due to topography and Rocky Mountains. Nothing will change that. it is a very rare winter nowadays where we have the ridge. Count on another ridge next winter, winter after that, ad infinitum.
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Old 02-10-2018, 12:00 AM
 
384 posts, read 268,674 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
I would love another no name storm like we had in March 13th 1993. 100+ mhp winds in my area on the gulf. I was in Tampa back then. I hope for a active spring with 10+" of rain and ups and downs in the upper levels. Last March thru mid May i had about no rain at all.
That storm was the snow storm of our generation where I grew up. 6-7' of snow, at rates of 3-4" per hour from Friday night March 12, 1993-late Sunday afternoon March 14, 1993. 35-50mph sustained winds with gusts to 70mph. First time I experienced the "thundersnow" phenomenon. Snow drifts were as high as the lowest wires on the telephone poles on the rural road I lived on at the time and it looked like the hedge maze from "The Shining" around our town for weeks afterward. It wasn't until after Easter (which was April 11th that year) that we saw grass again.
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