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What a fantastic day today. Reached low 50s with sun, then suddenly there was a random scattered shower and now its cloudy and high 40s. Shame its gonna go back below freezing tomorrow morning.
What a fantastic day today. Reached low 50s with sun, then suddenly there was a random scattered shower and now its cloudy and high 40s. Shame its gonna go back below freezing tomorrow morning.
Could get quite a bit of rain tonight. I'm not really expecting much of a severe threat, but flooding could be an issue.
Quote:
SUMMARY...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITH 2.5 INCH/HR RAINFALL RATES AND CONCERNS OF
TRAINING CELL ACTIVITY. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-16 10.3 MICRON/IR IMAGERY SHOWS AN
EXPANSIVE AREA OF STRONG AND WELL-ORGANIZED COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION
WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED OVERSHOOTING TOPS THAT EXTENDS ALONG AND
NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM NEAR VICTORIA TX...TO JASPER TX...TO
NATCHITOCHES LA.
THE CONVECTION IS BEING FACILITATED BY NOTABLY DIVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT COINCIDING WITH A PRONOUNCED POOLING OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND
WITH PROXIMITY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. BLENDED-TPW AND
GPS-DERIVED PWATS ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 1500 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 50 TO 55 KTS.
THIS WILL SUSTAIN A STRONG AND ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE THREAT WELL
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH A GRADUAL EAST AND SOUTHEAST SHIFT TO
THE CONVECTIVE AXIS THAT WILL THREATEN THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF
THE HOUSTON AND BEAUMONT/PORT-ARTHUR METROPOLITAN AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST TX...AND ALSO EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL LA WITH A
FOCUS ON THE NATCHITOCHES...FORT POLK AND ALEXANDRIA AREAS.
THIS IS ALL STRONGLY SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z CAM GUIDANCE...INCLUDING
THE ARW...ARW2...NMMB AND THE NAM-CONEST. RECENT HRRR RUNS SUPPORT
THIS AS WELL...BUT THE MAIN CONCERN MOVING FORWARD WILL BE AN
ENVIRONMENT BECOMING HIGHLY CONDUCIVE FOR TRAINING CONVECTION IN
THE HOURS AHEAD AS CONVECTION BECOMES STRONGLY ALIGNED SW/NE WITH
THE MEAN LAYER FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER TROUGH EJECTING OUT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH A HIGHLY
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE PEAKING NEAR 50 KTS AND
MAXIMIZING LOW LEVEL CLOUD-BEARING MOISTURE TRANSPORT.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND FOCUSED
INSTABILITY...RAINFALL RATES WILL BE QUITE HIGH AND MAY EXCEED 2.5
INCHES/HR GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS COUPLED WITH TRAINING
CELL ACTIVITY WILL SUPPORT RAINFALL TOTALS OF AS MUCH 5+ INCHES
GOING THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
ENHANCED SHORT-TERM RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
Never saw the point of spring break travel, and I'm a college student. Maybe it's because I appreciate each season for what it is. So many people want warm, sunny, boring weather year round that they see fit to seek it in early spring when the beach weather isn't that great. Look at a climate graph for Florida and you'll see that March is far from the best month for beach weather.
Let's take Panama City, FL, a popular destination, for example in March. Average high 72 F / 22 C, low 51 F / 11 C, 5.68" precipitation. That means that nights in the 40s are frequent.
I went to Panama City in late May 2011. Average high 84 F / 29 C, low 65 F / 18 C. 3.08" precipitation. That's IDEAL beach weather.
My suggestion for beach lovers in March: You can go now and have a so-so time, or go in May and have a great time. Late September/October also looks like a great time. I would recommend May for most people, but the late September/October period for those with sensitive skin due to the weaker UV at that time of year.
Looks like a lot of downpours this morning over Louisiana! Lightning and Thunder too but I don't see any Thunderstorm Warnings so maybe its not strong. Temps in the 70s ahead of the rain, 40s and 50s over Texas
Green box = Flash Flood Warning. Flooding happening in spots.
There was Tornado warning south of Houston at the coast last night
Looks like a lot of downpours this morning over Louisiana! Lightning and Thunder too but I don't see any Thunderstorm Warnings so maybe its not strong. Temps in the 70s ahead of the rain, 40s and 50s over Texas
Green box = Flash Flood Warning. Flooding happening in spots.
There was Tornado warning south of Houston at the coast last night
I just measured 5.94"! Rainfall slowed down but more coming, I'm guessing another 1-2 inches.
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