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In the past, I have often heard that climate change must be kept within 1.5 or 2° C of pre-industrial levels, but I can not find a definition of pre-industrial levels. According to the below source, the world's climate has already warmed at least 1° C, so this means remaining within 0.5 or 1° C of current levels. In addition, the article states that climage change could eventually reverse if emissions are reduced. Therefore, while most people view climate change as a future event, most of the temperature rise may have already happened. I am not denying the dangerous potential side effects of climate change, but simply that the future temperature change may be minimal. Due to the fact that the source seems to strongly favor reducing climate change, I find it unlikely that they would make up numbers that hurt their cause. The source and critical quotes are below.
"A draft United Nations climate science report contains dire news about the warming of the planet, suggesting it will likely cross the key marker of 1.5 degrees Celsius, or 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit, of temperature rise in the 2040s, and that this will be exceedingly difficult to avoid.
Temperatures could subsequently cool down if carbon dioxide is somehow removed from the air later in the century".
"The draft document states that there is a "very high risk" of the planet warming more than 1.5 degrees above the temperature seen in the mid- to late 19th century".
"The planet has already warmed by 1 degree Celsius or more".
"In some places, the report notes, the temperature increase has already exceeded 1.5 degrees Celsius".
I may not be speaking for the globe but climate data from 1988 through 2017 indicates a very modest warming trend over the 1981-2010 climate normals in Indianapolis, in the 1981-2010 climate normals, Indianapolis had an annual average temperature of 53.1 F, I have calculated the latest 30 year averages, in this case being the annual average temperatures for the period 1988-2017, and the average annual temperature during the 1988-2017 period registered as 53.6 F, so that’s a .5 F/ .25 C warming over almost a decade of time for Indianapolis, I don’t expect the future climate of Indianapolis to be a whole lot different than it is now, so if that is the basis of your question, then that is my humble and honest opinion on climate change
Another interesting note I have discovered from looking at climate data is that in some areas warming seems to be entirely caused by urban heat island rather than global warming. For example, Chicago has warmed from an annual average temperature of 49 to 52 in the past 100 years while nearby smaller cities such as Pontiac and Peoria actually cooled slightly. The Chicago warming is also essentially linear, with 1.6 degrees occurring in the first 100 years and 1.4 degrees since. It will be interesting to see how things change in the future, especially as many cities take measures to combat localised warming through means such as green roofs and increased park space. While I believe the world as a whole will continue to warm, it seems likely that some areas will actually get cooler in the future.
Been big time changes in my part of FL since 1990. But one day in a few billion years the weather really will change once the sun goes BOOM.
I actually currently live in the Tampa area and warming does seem relentless here. As I explained through a previous example, it is probably especially bad in places such as Florida since so much growth has happened in recent years. In addition, the range of temperatures is so low that warming is more apparent.
I actually currently live in the Tampa area and warming does seem relentless here. As I explained through a previous example, it is probably especially bad in places such as Florida since so much growth has happened in recent years. In addition, the range of temperatures is so low that warming is more apparent.
Just the last 7 years should tell you something is very wrong.
Just the last 7 years should tell you something is very wrong.
I completely agree that something is wrong, but I think it is more complex than simply global warming and that the future projections will not be accurate. Most global warming models predict Florida to be minimally affected by temperature rise when compared to the rest of the country, when in the past 100 years it has been one of the most affected, which makes sense when taking the extremely high rates of development into account.
It is what i call my snow ball effect. The planet will heat up faster and faster at a rate no one ever dreamed of. The next 30 years will be very bad. We no longer have normal winters, our summer time southeast windflow pattern has been gone since the mid 80's and we are stuck in a reverse west windflow pattern every summer in the Tampa area. Falls are hot and springs are hot, we go months without rain, then get 20 to 30" in a few weeks time like the last 3 years.
There was an interesting news article that just surfaced about how the Southeastern United States is actually getting colder during the winter and spring, and that such a trend began about the late 1950’s, this warming hole has been found to expand into the Midwest during the warm season aka summer, not sure if this trend will continue, although the news article implies that the cooling trend will continue for the South during the winter and spring and the Midwest during summer. This makes sense, as a general rule the Midwest has NOT been getting the far more scorching summers that have been advertised by these GIGO AGW computer models
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