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Hopefully an El Nino does form. It would strengthen our chances of above-normal winter precipitation here in the southwestern US. A healthy snowpack will really help improve drought conditions. While we've had a pretty decent summer this year, the winter precipitation is what matters most when it comes to keeping drought conditions at bay.
I would not bank that the winter of 2018-2019 will resemble 2009-2010; that warm blob in the Pacific Ocean wasn’t there that year.
I don't ever expect a winter of 2010 in 5 lifetimes for my area.
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