Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
When the entire column is below freezing, it will be snow falling. (there are some exceptions)
When there is a small layer aloft that's above freezing, snow falls through this layer, melts to liquid, but then forms ice pellets coming out of that small layer of warmth and hits the cold below it, sleet falls to surface.
When there is a larger area above the surface above freezing but the surface is still at or below, its Freezing Rain at the surface.
This is why it's important to look at the 2500' (925mb) and 5000' (850mb) layer when forecasting.
One of the mets on JB's premium website says essentially that the El Nino would be overridden by the PNA and that the NAO would be neutral to positive, forcing a pattern with a strong polar vortex over hudson bay battling the southeast ridge over the carribean and deep south/gulf coast. He calls that particular pattern a +TNH.
One of the mets on JB's premium website says essentially that the El Nino would be overridden by the PNA and that the NAO would be neutral to positive, forcing a pattern with a strong polar vortex over hudson bay battling the southeast ridge over the carribean and deep south/gulf coast. He calls that particular pattern a +TNH.
Positive NAO sucks for big snowstorms or prolonged cold here. Things move too fast without blocking.... but.... check out the warm blob animation above this tweet
Two things to remember. The inaccuracy of these long range models, and also, even in an above avg winter, there are still wicked cold periods. We are talking the months of D, J, and Feb so even an average or above avg winter is never above avg the whole time.
Positive NAO sucks for big snowstorms or prolonged cold here. Things move too fast without blocking.... but.... check out the warm blob animation above this tweet
JB''s site says that the El Nino would be overridden by the PNA/eastern trough/accompanied by a +NAO. But that is not usually what happen's in a El Nino. Normally the El Nino forces a -NAO with riding over Greenland extending down to the Great Lakes with a trough over the southeast.
JB''s site says that the El Nino would be overridden by the PNA/eastern trough/accompanied by a +NAO. But that is not usually what happen's in a El Nino. Normally the El Nino forces a -NAO with riding over Greenland extending down to the Great Lakes with a trough over the southeast.
In other words the plains and Midwest can expect their coldest winter on record
I see this season as continuing to be busy, like the pattern we have had since late spring. Temperatures will run extremes on the cold and warm end. That is what happens with an active jet stream, but we will have more cold than warm spells. We may also have the famed Polar Vortex make itself known a few times as I described in my post about the Solar Minimum.
Baltimore and the Mid Atlantic region is one of the most challenging to forecast. This has a lot to do with the variation of the terrain from the mountains and hills to the eastern shore. But also because the influence of the Chesapeake Bay and Atlantic waters on temperatures keeping many of us on the border of freezing. Often we get storms to split the area with snow, rain, and sometimes ice. But when the ingredients are just right we can get hit hard.
Atmospheric Memory
The theory I announced years ago and discuss often online has two parts.
Storms are likely to follow similar paths.
Hurricane Michael has establish a Nor’easter track that was repeated a few times already and I expect more into winter.
I see MULTIPLE Nor’easters. There should be 2 or 3 that may have the potential to produce 10″+ snow amounts ‘in the region’. Where it is too early to say now.
Much like the big Nor’easter that came from former Hurricane Willa in the Pacific, We should have some larger coastal storms followed by a clipper within a few days. In winter that could be more snow producers with colder air in place.
October had record rainfall in Arizona. That is a signal of the active moisture flow from the Pacific we would expect in an El Nino year and what will feed into our winter pattern.
JB is doubling down today with his daily update. Today he is focusing more on precip forecasts, he Says there would be heavy overall precip (not just the snow totals) over the northern tier US, great lakes, Interior northeast and southern Canada, with the northern tier having greater wetter than average anomalies than the southeast this winter. He also says it would be colder than normal in Northwest Canada and the northern tier to the western great lakes. He also is saying that he is leaning toward the cold being concentrated in the great lakes northeast and midatlantic with canada colder than average but with the southeast being somewhat warmer due to the southeast ridge influence. Says the storm track will go trough the great lakes and Ohio valley bringing snow with the storms later being deflected toward the coastal cities becoming noreasters.
JB is doubling down today with his daily update. Today he is focusing more on precip forecasts, he Says there would be heavy overall precip (not just the snow totals) over the northern tier US, great lakes, Interior northeast and southern Canada, with the northern tier having greater wetter than average anomalies than the southeast this winter. He also says it would be colder than normal in Northwest Canada and the northern tier to the western great lakes.
He also is saying that he is leaning toward the cold being concentrated in the great lakes northeast and midatlantic with canada colder than average but with the southeast being somewhat warmer due to the southeast ridge influence. Says the storm track will go trough the great lakes and Ohio valley bringing snow with the storms later being deflected toward the coastal cities becoming noreasters.
So transfers? I'll take it!! As long as they transfer SOUTH of Philly I'll be fine. Actually... I prefer Clippers that transfer. Sometimes those Lake Cutters draw too much warm air that by time the transfer is made its too warm.
I tell you, with the activity on the map past 2 weeks, Meteos will need some good coffee if this continues.
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Actually... I prefer Clippers that transfer. Sometimes those Lake Cutters draw too much warm air that by time the transfer is made its too warm. 
