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If I have my science right, in an El Nino, a tremendous amount of water vapour is launched into the atmosphere. I read somewhere that the current El Nino lacked ocean-atmosphere coupling, giving us conditions more akin to a La Nina. So maybe the warm season would turn out differently than in a more typical El Nino?
Actually scratch that, the neutral analog years are just as depressing as Modoki El Nino years
It would take a precipitous drop in East Pacific SST's for the east to have an above average warm season. Or 2019 would have to pull a 2002, a year that went against ENSO.
Sorry for triple posting but I wanted to expound on my posts.
My non-scientific postulation is that the current ENSO state is essentially neutral since the atmosphere does not typify an El Nino. Hence why I decided to look at neutral years. But if the atmosphere suddenly started behaving like an El Nino, then it doesn't matter anymore.
On a different note, I don't think the ENSO SST's are going to drop anytime soon. The subsurface temps are still anomalously warm east of the dateline per CPC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...MJO/enso.shtml
Sorry for triple posting but I wanted to expound on my posts.
My non-scientific postulation is that the current ENSO state is essentially neutral since the atmosphere does not typify an El Nino. Hence why I decided to look at neutral years. But if the atmosphere suddenly started behaving like an El Nino, then it doesn't matter anymore.
On a different note, I don't think the ENSO SST's are going to drop anytime soon. The subsurface temps are still anomalously warm east of the dateline per CPC https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...MJO/enso.shtml
This hasn't been a typical Modoki El Nino winter. This is the usual pattern
This is the forecast pattern for March. Huge ridge right over the Upper Midwest would be GREAT for mild/warm temps here. But somehow I doubt this will happen
^^^^^^^^^^^
You do know you’re jinxing us in the lower 48 with all this garbage right? Maybe if you would post forecasts with a warmer bias maybe then the Midwest and Northeast could well be treated to a proper spring season this year
My non-scientific postulation is that the current ENSO state is essentially neutral since the atmosphere does not typify an El Nino. Hence why I decided to look at neutral years. But if the atmosphere suddenly started behaving like an El Nino, then it doesn't matter anymore.
I also posted this tweet over at the Nino thread. I made the above assertion because I thought that for there to be El Nino forcing, WWBs had to happen east of dateline, instead of directly at the dateline. Additionally, it was easy to get thrown off by the upper air pattern.
At least I did say that it was a non-scientific postulation
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