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My "weather nut" teenage son claims he read someone that the GFS is less accurate right now because as the "American" model the gov't shutdown has caused it not to be "adjusted" by NWS personnel and making it more likely to be a constant "outlier". Not sure how true that is....
He's correct. Something to do with data formats apparently.
Not trying to start a political discussion, just a comment: Tomorrow we tie the record for longest government shutdown. Wow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by antinimby
They all seem to agree on St. Louis hitting the jackpot.
Not in St. Louis, southwest of St. Louis! Every storm in this region since October has hit slightly further south than the models predicted. For example, the November 25 winter storm (which this storm is similar to) was predicted to have its highest totals in the KC area around St. Joseph, but Lee's Summit got the most snow instead.
Prediction - Highest totals in Franklin County, Missouri.
Quick look at the latest Euro12z just out. When you watch models for so long you start to pick up on the smallest differences. Tropical Tid Bits has a cool feature (hit "previous run" button to see the difference from the previous run for that time frame.
So here is Sunday 7am. On the left is todays most recent run. On the right is yesterdays run.
Note 3 things:
1. The storm is now slightly stronger (only 1mb though)
2. The storm is slightly slower. It's over Western TN instead of central TN Sunday 7am. That has affect on forecasts because the start stop times will change now.
3. The freezing line at 5000' is colder with this new run. That will affect forecast temps! They'll probably adjust colder in many areas.
Look at this data for Richmond, Virginia. New run makes it so close to a full fledge snowstorm.
Problem is 5000' temps go to or slightly above freezing during the event but then drop back down. Might be a mix now there. So marginal and "on the line" there
0.69" qpf! If it stays all snow that's a solid 5-6" there!
I predicted highest totals in Franklin County *before* this model came out. Guess what:
Nice call. Good luck and have fun! NAM usually has a wet bias to it but its been right many times before. I just grabbed a loop and realized I didnt have MO included. Sorry.
Future radar loop based off the NAM model.
Brings snow to NYC and my county 1-7am Sunday. But will be light and maybe evaporate since its on the northern fringe. Heaviest should stay south of Philly.
This one is much harder than the previous one, which is a good thing. Right now, forecasts seem to show the jackpot as slightly W of St. Louis.
I hope the jackpot is actually Virginia or slightly E of St. Louis. West Virginia and zone 2 areas further north are also a possibility. Zones 2, 3, and 4 all have some realistic chance.
Nice call. Good luck and have fun! NAM usually has a wet bias to it but its been right many times before. I just grabbed a loop and realized I didnt have MO included. Sorry.
Future radar loop based off the NAM model.
Brings snow to NYC and my county 1-7am Sunday. But will be light and maybe evaporate since its on the northern fringe. Heaviest should stay south of Philly.
Oh, I'm not there. I'm in northwestern Missouri and looking at 4-6 inches. Thanks anyway though!
well, since GPS might be involved....
quote:
On January 30 (delayed due to the US Government shutdown), the World Magnetic Model — which governs modern navigation systems — is due to undergo an urgent update.
This model is a vital component of systems ranging from geopositioning systems used to navigate ships through to smartphone trackers and maps.
link: https://www.news.com.au/technology/s...38836c6097be9d
New Euro says less for Virginia now and more for Indiana & Illinois. So close for Chicago. Big snowstorm for Indy?
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Looking like St. Louis is in the heart of it...
