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I'm going with the 20 C / 68 F threshold and I'm going to say they'll squeak out one.
They had none last year but they did have a low of 18 C / 65 F on October 13. The closest was 19 C / 67 F on August 4. Heathrow by the way.
Heathrow had a low of 19.9C on July 27th & a 19.0C on July 23rd last year. The low on August 4th was actually 19.6C. And the low on October 13th was 18.8C.
St James' Park had a low of 21.0C on July 27th & 19.8C on the 26th. Also 20.1C on August 4th, 19.8C on the 2nd & a 19.0C on the 20th. Surprisingly there was also a 19.6C low on October 13th.
Well, I think that we have to base our bets for summer 2019, on actual past values! What is London Heathrow Airport station's (for example) record for the number of days T > 20°C (remaining strictly above 20°C during a 24-hour period)?
We do officially consider the threshold for what we name 'a tropical night' as of 20°C (68°F).
I checked for 2003 (which is a true reference for heat in the UK), from 1st June to 31st August 2003: 3 tropical nights (6th20.3°C, 10th20.1°C and 11th August 200320.0°C).
1976 does better with 4 tropical nights: 26th (20.0°C), 27th (20.4°C) and 28th June (20.8°C) and 4th July (20.4°C).
Besides, there is two impressive series of consecutive days; one with Tmax > 30°C : 16 days (!) from 22nd June to 7th July 1976; one with Tmax > 25°C : 17 days, from 9th to 25th August 1976.
THAT was a true summer of which many of us would be jealous!
Be careful, this site is a custom one (unofficial), made by one person with his own server, as a result it's very, very slow to load:
Isn’t London’s all time minimum temperature like 3 F above zero or something like that???I have not a clue of what the least amount of balmy nights that London has ever seen during summer though, sorry.
Now showing 2 nights, but the hot spell is extended to 7 days in a row now, rather than just the 3 days above.
I give it a week into August before it all collapses, can't be having a warm and sunny August now can we?!
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