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The latest run of the GFS is showing some potentially very cold weather for much of the Midwest between 10 and 14 days out, you should be happy about that, right George?
We'll see if it actually happens. The models especially the Euro has been all over the place for mid month onwards
Current Map of Upper heights and air mass at 5000'. Even though the Jet is dipping in the West, the real cold air is still bottled up in the north. Only Northern Plains and Maine is feeling the chill right now. Still not crazy. only 8 below normal there this evening. Great Falls is at 8°F. 18 below normal
20+ above normal in Midwest, that's about to visit the Northeast.
Those troughs really need to stop in the west. Where is that persistent ridge out there when you need it.
50F high yesterday and also it was 50F at 2AM today. Stil in the upper 40s with a storm coming in. Storm will be accompanied by strong winds which will batter the shoreline, heavy rain, thunderstorms, freezing rain, ice, and snow. Lots of snow near the Wisconsin state line. Up to a foot of it. 2-4" for the city of Chicago and only about of inch down here. Icing might be the biggest problem.
Current Pattern... Here it comes. We're getting a return flow now and the temps at 5000' are rising above 40° over us which means the surface will warm up. 50s tomorrow and Saturday. Maybe 60s!
Jet stream continues to dip in the West.
SER should be nuked
Match these words with the map above...from NWS NY
They used the warmer guidance of MAV MOS for the temps.
Quote:
The region remains with SW flow as the high pressure area
remains in the Western Atlantic.
SW flow continues today with a low level jet developing as well.
Warm air advection will continue. Models overall convey a
consensus of 850mb temperatures increasing to around 6 degrees C
by the end of today
Saturday is expected to be even warmer with the same synoptic
pattern. Looking at the NCEP ensemble mean anomalies with 850mb
temperatures, anomalies on Saturday are a few degrees warmer
than those anomalies on the previous day. Models are showing by
the end of Saturday, 850mb temperatures near 10 to 12 degrees
C. Used relatively warmer guidance of MAV MOS for high
temperature with some manual adjustments.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There has not been too much change in the overall forecast
thinking for the second half of the weekend into early next
week. A highly anomalous ridge will be in place across the
Western Atlantic Saturday night with only a gradual lowering of
heights over the northeast on Sunday. This is due to a shortwave
that lifts across the Great Lakes and southeast Canada on
Sunday. Heights should rise again on Monday ahead of another
shortwave that passes to our NW. 500 mb heights are forecast by
deterministic models and ensemble means to be near 580 dm
Saturday night. These heights are around 2- 2.5 standard
deviations above normal.
Unseasonably warm and humid air will continue to move around the
offshore high pressure and ahead of low pressure moving across the
Ohio Valley Saturday night. Temperatures on Saturday night will
remain in the 50s.
As far as records...should beat it.
Record High Minimum Temperatures for Saturday January 11
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