Winter 2019-2020 Discussion Weather Thread (Northern Hemisphere) (warming, world, freeze)

[LKJ1988]

It will be one of the warmest winters ever for FL.

[Veritas Vincit]

There's people who pay a lot of money to live in that climate.

[tom77falcons]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

Ben is right. A consistent cold signal over the eastern US lol.. Also new run colder in western Europe

Here is a hair in your winter ointment George. All models agree on a positive NAO for winter this year. Without a big negative NAO very unlikely to get brutal cold in eastern US. The positive NAO protected us from your really bad cold last winter.



Check out the article:


https://cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/news...and-wet-winter

[Isleofpalms85]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

Here is a hair in your winter ointment George. All models agree on a positive NAO for winter this year. Without a big negative NAO very unlikely to get brutal cold in eastern US. The positive NAO protected us from your really bad cold last winter.



Check out the article:


https://cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/news...and-wet-winter

Yup you’re right. Only the Midwest will have damn brutal cold way more severe than last year while the rest of the country enjoys a balmy winter.

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

Here is a hair in your winter ointment George. All models agree on a positive NAO for winter this year. Without a big negative NAO very unlikely to get brutal cold in eastern US. The positive NAO protected us from your really bad cold last winter.



Check out the article:


https://cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/news...and-wet-winter

Why would that be a hair in my ointment Lmaoo what do I care if the Eastern U.S. gets cold or not. A positive NAO doesn't play a big role for the Midwest as it does on the coast.

Positive PNA and Negative EPO are other drivers. Not just NAO and look at what is happening now. Could be the overall pattern as we get into the winter. Especially with the Pacific warm blob still there.


https://twitter.com/indywx/status/1188968294130311170



the models are already doing with position of the Polar vortex the most influential winter driver is being displaced in November and maybe into December



That link talks about the NAO with respect to Europe right? I don't know of the Northeast is as impacted in terms of cold aside for storm tracks

[chicagogeorge]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is exactly the pattern that?dominates this winter

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...87747562983424

[chicagogeorge]

Originally Posted by tom77falcons

Here is a hair in your winter ointment George. All models agree on a positive NAO for winter this year. Without a big negative NAO very unlikely to get brutal cold in eastern US. The positive NAO protected us from your really bad cold last winter.



Check out the article:


https://cicero.oslo.no/en/posts/news...and-wet-winter

Judah Cohen doesn't think so and isn't agreeing with the modeling

This coupled with Greenland blocking since the summer could be suggestive of an overall negative winter NAO.

https://www.aer.com/science-research...c-oscillation/



https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1188960351028682753

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by chicagogeorge

I wouldn't be surprised if this is exactly the pattern that?dominates this winter

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...87747562983424

Bank on it, 90's all thru winter for parts of FL.

[Sunbiz1]

This is a no-brainer, at least here in the Midwest.
Thus far 2019 has been identical to 2018, and therefore will likely repeat itself this winter.
Patterns such as this can take years to break, as we are in a solar minimum.

[Isleofpalms85]

^^^^^^^^


And all that means is cold and drought records being broken in some areas