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Old 11-12-2019, 02:38 PM
 
Location: Kocaeli, Turkey
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If November is extremely above average, what kinda winter should be expected?
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Old 11-12-2019, 03:29 PM
 
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
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I take this to insinuate that much of Europe and Asia must be having a very warm November thus far for you to propose a question like this. I know in the forty eight states, a warm/mild November usually although not necessarily always precedes a mild December or even a mild winter season in general, but I don’t know enough as to whether to speculate what a warm November would mean for the upcoming winter season in Turkey.
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Old 11-12-2019, 03:37 PM
 
Location: Tricity, PL
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November just started and its pretty darn cold in TEXAS right now.
https://www.infoclimat.fr/cartes/obs...tats-unis.html
Pretty appropriate temps in Europe too:
https://www.infoclimat.fr/cartes/obs...ri/europe.html

Those are weather anomalies for October
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/monitoring...map-102019.png

We need to wait to see the summary for November.

According to the 2020 Farmers’ Almanac, this winter will be filled with so many ups and downs on the thermometer, it may remind you of a "Polar Coaster."
The almanac is predicting that the worst of the bitterly cold winter conditions will affect areas east of the Rockies all the way to the Appalachians.
https://www.farmersalmanac.com/extended-forecast

Last edited by elnina; 11-12-2019 at 03:46 PM..
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Old 11-12-2019, 03:39 PM
 
Location: Kocaeli, Turkey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elnina View Post
November just started and its pretty darn cold in TEXAS right now.
https://www.infoclimat.fr/cartes/obs...tats-unis.html
Where I am, highs go 8 to 10°C hotter than average without stopping. Yeah... Without stopping.. Crazy.

And through Turkey, temps are above average. Especially highs, which are well above average through the country.

Last edited by The Grandeur; 11-12-2019 at 03:52 PM..
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Old 11-12-2019, 05:00 PM
 
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The same thing for my part of FL hot and dry all winter. Last 8 Nov's have been blazing warm with 90's. No colder weather yet this fall for my area.
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Old 11-12-2019, 07:18 PM
 
Location: Toronto
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From anecdotal evidence in that past few years:

Warm November = Cold December but warm overall winter (January and February). Observed 2016-17 and 2017-18.

Conversely, super cold Novembers means warm December but cold winter, but stays mild until mid January or after. Observed: 2014-15, 2018-19.

We're having a cold November with 13cm of snow yesterday. Temperature has been 5-10C below seasonal. We'll see if December swaps roles with November and becomes mild.
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Old 11-12-2019, 09:47 PM
 
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A warm November usually results in an average winter. So does a cold November.

My point is that weather on this timescale is very unpredictable, especially if the only source of evidence is past weather.
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Old 11-13-2019, 08:04 AM
B87
 
Location: Surrey/London
11,769 posts, read 10,597,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
I take this to insinuate that much of Europe and Asia must be having a very warm November thus far for you to propose a question like this. I know in the forty eight states, a warm/mild November usually although not necessarily always precedes a mild December or even a mild winter season in general, but I don’t know enough as to whether to speculate what a warm November would mean for the upcoming winter season in Turkey.
Western Europe has been having a cold November so far, and it is forecast to continue for another week before normality resumes.
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Old 11-14-2019, 11:32 AM
 
Location: Kocaeli, Turkey
3,187 posts, read 1,278,774 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
The same thing for my part of FL hot and dry all winter. Last 8 Nov's have been blazing warm with 90's. No colder weather yet this fall for my area.
Yesterday's high in my location was 12°C above average.

All days are above average but it is a question of how much above average it is.

Some days are "more" above average, some days are "less" above average but all are above average. Lol.

As of today, the weather will be going "less" above avarage compared to previous days.

6-7°C above average is a lot less above average than 12°C above average after all, isn't it? What a crazy warm November!

Last edited by The Grandeur; 11-14-2019 at 11:46 AM..
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