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Old 02-19-2020, 05:42 AM
 
24,640 posts, read 14,234,942 times
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Probably true...

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...05056004931586
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Old 02-19-2020, 07:45 AM
 
24,640 posts, read 14,234,942 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Isleofpalms85 View Post
Coldest and driest March ever for the Midwest.
Dry? Not even close....

Look at soil moisture levels right now. It's almost guaranteed that we will have another record wet and cool spring

https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status...16997037514752
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Old 02-19-2020, 08:55 AM
 
Location: Austin, TX
11,752 posts, read 10,503,535 times
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So fall was cold, winter was warm, and spring will be cold? I think we can all agree this is the worst possible scenario.
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Old 02-19-2020, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Near Albany, NY
65 posts, read 13,837 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Dry? Not even close....

Look at soil moisture levels right now. It's almost guaranteed that we will have another record wet and cool spring

https://twitter.com/Met_khinz/status...16997037514752
I think because of the oceans warming and with the climate changing, you’re seeing more available moisture than before and it’s becoming wetter. Especially with the gulf warming and as a result, the influence that has on the US (becoming wetter, more humid mainly). But overall, I think we will start seeing more wet, warm winters, with also wet warm springs for the East and drier wet seasons for the west. It could be cooler this spring than normal but the cold was also predicted by the same model for February and January for that matter but never materialized. It’s predicted to be above average for this spring mostly and the polar vortex is at record strong levels. So more mild air. So I would say I’m still hopeful spring is going to be nice. GFS has a good start to March. But of course we’re still too far out to really make any accurate assumptions.

February will be about 4 degrees warmer than average for me though. So, in order. December, average (1.0 degrees above average), January, (almost 10 degrees above average), February (4 degrees above average). So definitely a warm winter for Meteorological winter in the eastern US, with regular astronomical winter being about the same. Expect more of the same in the years to come. Summer probably will be above average as well.

Last edited by UpstaterNY1; 02-19-2020 at 11:08 AM..
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Old 02-19-2020, 12:35 PM
 
Location: ATL -> HOU -> DAL -> ATL
4,767 posts, read 3,976,584 times
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We're continuing our pattern of mild and wet mid week followed by cold and freezing temps Thursday night into the weekend.
This is week 4 of this awful pattern. Supposed to get down to 24 Saturday morning.
Next week will be #5. Mid to upper 50s and rain early/mid week. Down to the mid 20s Friday and Saturday morning.
Still too far out, but days 13-15 (3/2-3/4) will be the mild and wet days, probably get another cold shot that weekend...
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Old 02-19-2020, 01:05 PM
 
24,640 posts, read 14,234,942 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cBach View Post
So fall was cold, winter was warm, and spring will be cold? I think we can all agree this is the worst possible scenario.
It's god awful. I can't take another crap spring here. The last few have been miserably cloudy cool and extremely wet over all. So depressing


Quote:
Originally Posted by UpstaterNY1 View Post
I think because of the oceans warming and with the climate changing, you’re seeing more available moisture than before and it’s becoming wetter. Especially with the gulf warming and as a result, the influence that has on the US (becoming wetter, more humid mainly). But overall, I think we will start seeing more wet, warm winters, with also wet warm springs for the East and drier wet seasons for the west. It could be cooler this spring than normal but the cold was also predicted by the same model for February and January for that matter but never materialized. It’s predicted to be above average for this spring mostly and the polar vortex is at record strong levels. So more mild air. So I would say I’m still hopeful spring is going to be nice. GFS has a good start to March. But of course we’re still too far out to really make any accurate assumptions.


It's all about the configuration of ocean SSTs not the Polar Vortex that dominates the spring pattern. The vortex typically breaks down in spring so it's effects are minimal. Until we flip into a La Nina or even neutral SST configuration the eastern two thirds will likely continue to see wet cool springs and wet summers.

Quote:


Accuweather is calling for a late start to Spring and Im starting to think they are right

https://twitter.com/accuweather/stat...47055293771776


February will be about 4 degrees warmer than average for me though. So, in order. December, average (1.0 degrees above average), January, (almost 10 degrees above average), February (4 degrees above average). So definitely a warm winter for Meteorological winter in the eastern US, with regular astronomical winter being about the same. Expect more of the same in the years to come. Summer probably will be above average as well.

See for the Midwest some winters have been extremely mild like this and some barbarically cold like the second half of last winter, Feb 2015 and the winter of 2013-14. It's been a wild ride. But that's always been the case here. Overall the new 30 year base periods will show December is warmer than average January much warmer yet February colder for Chicago.
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Old 02-19-2020, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Near Albany, NY
65 posts, read 13,837 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
It's god awful. I can't take another crap spring here. The last few have been miserably cloudy cool and extremely wet over all. So depressing






It's all about the configuration of ocean SSTs not the Polar Vortex that dominates the spring pattern. The vortex typically breaks down in spring so it's effects are minimal. Until we flip into a La Nina or even neutral SST configuration the eastern two thirds will likely continue to see wet cool springs and wet summers.




See for the Midwest some winters have been extremely mild like this and some barbarically cold like the second half of last winter, Feb 2015 and the winter of 2013-14. It's been a wild ride. But that's always been the case here. Overall the new 30 year base periods will show December is warmer than average January much warmer yet February colder for Chicago.

Sure, ocean surface anomalies play a role, but early March is what I mean since that guy was talking about March cold, not April. The polar vortex still has plenty of cold air available if it were to roll into the US. Last March had a cold start and some March’s have had polar outbreaks in early March, as the polar vortex and extreme arctic air (below -10 mainly) is still there. But obviously it’s not going to be like an outbreak in January or early February when the atmosphere is colder. But it will still be noticeable. The jet stream also plays a role.

Accuweather is also usually incorrect, so I don’t buy what they are cooking. Long term 3 months is above average for East mainly according to Nation Weather Service long term forecast. Weather channel is also above average.
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Old 02-19-2020, 03:05 PM
 
Location: Markham, Ontario
252 posts, read 59,434 times
Reputation: 90
I'm not worrying too much now since we're still quite a while away but for the love of GOD, we can't go through another 2019 scenario. Say positive guys, it has to be better than last year, even just in terms of sunshine. It's the law of averages
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Old 02-19-2020, 05:02 PM
 
16,130 posts, read 10,929,277 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
It's all connected to ocean patterns. Eventually they will change in my favor. I hope lol


https://twitter.com/indywx/status/1229922175714500608
Now that is maps i wanna see year round.
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Old 02-19-2020, 05:43 PM
Status: "Finally in subtropical Fort Worth Texas for a whole month" (set 6 days ago)
 
Location: In climate zone Cfa/hardiness zone 8a /zip code 76131
3,673 posts, read 2,378,776 times
Reputation: 1320
Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
Now that is maps i wanna see year round.
Why don’t you move to somewhere where you’d actually enjoy the weather instead of griping about the weather you have?
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