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I like the click bait headline.. lol. At least they say "don't let the headline fool you".
Quote:
Winter Weather Forecast: Expect 15 times more snow in DC this winter than last year
WASHINGTON — If you are a snow lover living in the D.C. region, you've probably come to expect disappointment when it comes to winter forecasts. Sadly, we aren't likely to break that pattern in 2020-2021, as we are likely looking at a weak La Nina winter. However, we are expecting quite a bit more white powder to fall this winter than last year.
More with the link and a video by them... Just in case link goes bad in future (usually does) I'll leave a little tid bit here::
Quote:
What Drives This Forecast: La Nina
We have a little better than a 50% chance of having a weak La Nina winter. Thus, there are no strong signals pointing to a cold and snowy winter or to a dry mild one. If this weak La Nina continues, snow lovers will more than likely have another disappointing year.
But why are weak La Nina winters bad for snow lovers?
The northern branch of the Jet Stream, the storm track, is forced north of the Mid-Atlantic taking the storms to our west, which draws up warm air from the south resulting in rain and not snow. Snowstorms must track south and east to hold in the cold air.
When the jet stream dips south and east of the DMV, that keeps the storm track south and east of us holding in the cold air.
How does 2020-2021 compare to last year:
Last winter we had a neutral phase, neither El Nino nor a La Nina, and snow lovers suffered through the third least snowy winter on record with a paltry .6 inches.
When we don't have an El Niño or a La Niña, we're in the neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, an atmospheric weather cycle that drives our jet stream patterns. Although this neutral phase doesn't have an official name, it's commonly referred to as 'La Nada', which translates to 'the nothing' in English from Spanish.
Only two other winters -- dating back to 1887 -- had less snow than we saw last year: the winter of 1972-1973 and 1997-1998 when only .1” was recorded at National Airport. The winter of 1972-1973 was a strong El Nino year, while the winter of 1997 – 1998 was a massive El Nino year.
JB has revised his winter forecast, he now has a colder solution than what he had on his initial forecast back in august. So the usual from him. While La Nina's do favor warmer conditions, some of the colder analogs are REALLY cold (1933-34, 2010-11).
JB has revised his winter forecast, he now has a colder solution than what he had on his initial forecast back in august. So the usual from him. While La Nina's do favor warmer conditions, some of the colder analogs are REALLY cold (1933-34, 2010-11).
JB has zero credibility and is an energy industry tool.
JB has revised his winter forecast, he now has a colder solution than what he had on his initial forecast back in august. So the usual from him. While La Nina's do favor warmer conditions, some of the colder analogs are REALLY cold (1933-34, 2010-11).
JB has zero credibility and is an energy industry tool.
On the other hand 2010-1 was a strong La Niña year as is this one. I don't know much about 1933-4 except that it featured NYC's record low temperature of -15°F on February 9.
Looking forward to winter. As usual, I hope we get several feet of snow and several arctic blasts.
Another 2010-11 is the best you can expect during a Niña and that hadn't happened since Jefferson's presidency. Even 2010-11, typical for Niña had a sudden end in early February (with a minor snowstorm in the middle of the month). Other analogous winters were 1970-1 (snow New Year's Eve, big cold a lot of January, torchy February and March), 1973-4 (ice storm mid-December, a few teasers of snowy and cold periods in early January and early February, major torches in late January, February and early March, and a notable SWF event in late March), 1988-9 (December was pretty much it, with a snow-to-rain event in early January), and 2007-8 (December 2007 and a small part of January 2008, and a minor storm in February 2008 was it). La Niñas are disappointing in NYC; a bit further north, say Albany and Ottawa are different stories altogether.
The coastals just organize too far north, and the battleground line between cold and warm air usually sets up too far north. Still, 2010-11 did happen, and it was our third snowiest winter.
^Yes, I'm aware that the odds are not stacked in my favor this year, but there can be plenty of surprises even in winters with overall terrible (warm/mild) prospects. But even if there are no such surprises, a mild winter still features plenty of decent weather, like 30s/40s and cold rain which I enjoy (it's the next-best thing if I can't get subfreezing temps and snow).
Another 2010-11 is the best you can expect during a Niña and that hadn't happened since Jefferson's presidency. Even 2010-11, typical for Niña had a sudden end in early February (with a minor snowstorm in the middle of the month). Other analogous winters were 1970-1 (snow New Year's Eve, big cold a lot of January, torchy February and March), 1973-4 (ice storm mid-December, a few teasers of snowy and cold periods in early January and early February, major torches in late January, February and early March, and a notable SWF event in late March), 1988-9 (December was pretty much it, with a snow-to-rain event in early January), and 2007-8 (December 2007 and a small part of January 2008, and a minor storm in February 2008 was it). La Niñas are disappointing in NYC; a bit further north, say Albany and Ottawa are different stories altogether.
The coastals just organize too far north, and the battleground line between cold and warm air usually sets up too far north. Still, 2010-11 did happen, and it was our third snowiest winter.
I don't see how it could have been a La nina back in 2010-11 when FL had the coldest 3 months ever and then a record cold Dec of 2011. I never saw so many highs in the 40's and 50's like we did in Jan thru March 2010. We had colder temps during the super freezes of the 1980's, but never 3 solid months of cold.
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