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I don't buy it. This pattern reminds me a lot of like 2008 which was close to normal in Mean temps but with below normal number of hot days (+90F). Its been incredibly wet here so far this spring. I think the heat will be focused further west than my region (Illinois). Spring precip is a big factor in the Midwest in reducing drought and heat risks for the summer. A feedback. Not saying it can't get hot, it's just less likely to have weeks of unending heat here if the soil moisture levels are elevated as it causes convection (stroms) to cool things off.
2008 was much wetter than this year so far in indy, especially that summer and I don’t think 2008 was a La Niña summer I believe it was Enso neutral aka La nada that year, I think that this summer will most likely be hot and dry for a lot of people, especially in the Great Plains and western United States.
I do believe our best weather days still lie ahead.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Togan93
Crappy spring weather doesn't necessarily mean a summer letdown. Spring 2019 was one of the worst spring seasons I've ever experienced here but the pattern flipped in June and the summer that year was mostly sunny and warm. Same situation in 2011, horrible spring that lead to hot/dry summer in the area. In fact, most of the crappy springs over the past few years have led to great summers so I'm not losing hope.
I don't buy it. This pattern reminds me a lot of like 2008 which was close to normal in Mean temps but with below normal number of hot days (+90F). Its been incredibly wet here so far this spring. I think the heat will be focused further west than my region (Illinois). Spring precip is a big factor in the Midwest in reducing drought and heat risks for the summer. A feedback. Not saying it can't get hot, it's just less likely to have weeks of unending heat here if the soil moisture levels are elevated as it causes convection (stroms) to cool things off.
Last year was a quite dry spring (30% below average precipitation for Mar-May at Oakville TWN) but June and July had slightly above average precipitation with June being warmer than average but July being cooler than average. I think this probably doesn't apply quite as much to Southern Ontario since we're surrounded by lakes on all sides (vs only having a lake to the NE for Chicago)?
This year we're below average in spring precipitation, at 13% below average at Pearson (Oakville TWN is missing data) for Mar 1-Apr 15.
Last year was a quite dry spring (30% below average precipitation for Mar-May at Oakville TWN) but June and July had slightly above average precipitation with June being warmer than average but July being cooler than average. I think this probably doesn't apply quite as much to Southern Ontario since we're surrounded by lakes on all sides (vs only having a lake to the NE for Chicago)?
This year we're below average in spring precipitation, at 13% below average at Pearson (Oakville TWN is missing data) for Mar 1-Apr 15.
Last year was a quite dry spring (30% below average precipitation for Mar-May at Oakville TWN) but June and July had slightly above average precipitation with June being warmer than average but July being cooler than average. I think this probably doesn't apply quite as much to Southern Ontario since we're surrounded by lakes on all sides (vs only having a lake to the NE for Chicago)?
This year we're below average in spring precipitation, at 13% below average at Pearson (Oakville TWN is missing data) for Mar 1-Apr 15.
We had an overall dry spring which was a bit above average in temps except for May. June was quite warm and extremely wet (in the form of thunderstorms), July was a bit below average and dry while August was quite warm and wet
We had an overall dry spring which was a bit above average in temps except for May. June was quite warm and extremely wet (in the form of thunderstorms), July was a bit below average and dry while August was quite warm and wet
This was Pearson in 2021
Daily High Temperatures (and average of last 12 years)
Toronto got 6.62" of precipitation from Feb-May, which is 2.85" below average (-0.71"/month), and 20.38" from Jun-Oct which is 6.18" above average (+1.24"/month).
Chicago got 5.00" of precipitation from Feb-May, which is 7.98" below average (-2.00"/month), and 20.19" from Jun-Oct which is 0.66" above average (+0.13"/month).
It's impressive how much cooler and wetter our September was than yours. We got most of our rain in just a few events though, 1.88" on Sept 7-8, 0.99" on Sept 14 and 2.46" on Sept 21-22, with 0.89" during the remaining 24 days of the month.
I guess our spring was wetter than yours, and we got a wetter and less above average summer, so your theory still kind of checks out. I was mostly thinking of June-July though, the "immediate after effect" of our warm dry spring, which was bang-on average here.
Tell that to the good people of Winnipeg....
Sometimes, I think we need a little bit of global warming.
I'm all for decreasing polution, not sure about global warming,
the earth has been colder and has been hotter...
Also countries like China need to do a lot more, not just the "west".
Summers here always near normal on temps. It's the blazing hot falls that are the killer. Always been hot here in the summer, but our summer time pattern changed in the 1980's from a east flow to a west most of the summer.
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