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Old 01-28-2023, 04:00 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
...



Yikes





Looks like the Euro drank the GFS Kool-Aid.
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Old 01-28-2023, 04:36 PM
 
Location: 30461
2,508 posts, read 1,851,891 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Well that's a different sight...


Feb 3-4 might feel weird





Look at it swing through then it warms back up.. At least something is swinging in.




-40s C into the Northeast. Full on Polar Vortex discharge



https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/st...05112438554624
Needs to dive farther to the southwest IMO. Still above freezing aloft over Georgia.
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Old 01-28-2023, 04:53 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,559 posts, read 75,454,544 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
Looks like the Euro drank the GFS Kool-Aid.
Haha.. GFS must of served it

Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
Needs to dive farther to the southwest IMO. Still above freezing aloft over Georgia.
Here's Atlanta data from that run. Looks like struggling past 30s at surface which is probably something that hasnt happened this winter?

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Old 01-28-2023, 05:10 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Haha.. GFS must of served it



Here's Atlanta data from that run. Looks like struggling past 30s at surface which is probably something that hasnt happened this winter?
Easy to forget the Christmas cold blast. 27°F for a high and 8°F for a low in Atlanta December 24. Seems like forever ago at this point.
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Old 01-28-2023, 05:26 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,907 posts, read 6,121,460 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Some snow and freezing rain here all snow half up the city limits and heavy snow in the north suburbs and into southern Wisconsin




Yikes





-33F/-36C for King North
-28F/-33C for Pearson
-20F/-29C for Downtown/Toronto Islands
???

That's some kool-aid they've been drinking...

Some local forecasters seem to be calling for temperatures down to -15F in Toronto on the night of Feb 4-5, which would already be quite exceptional. But -28F for Pearson would be 13F colder than the coldest it's ever seen in the past 2 decades, and 4F colder than the 1994 record.

Last edited by memph; 01-28-2023 at 05:46 PM..
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Old 01-28-2023, 05:46 PM
 
Location: Etobicoke
1,554 posts, read 877,725 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UpstaterNY1 View Post
Models still pushing the cold here for early February. Some really cold air. Might moderate a bit as the models progress but definitely going to get really cold here soon, coldest air of the season for sure. It’s been so warm that the lake in Lake Geroge (near my area) is still unfrozen completely, no ice yet which is definitely weird for this time of year but we’ve had a very warm January here (10f above average). Last year it already had decent ice at this time. My guess is we might see some action this February but the lake might not freeze that much like prior years if the cold does not stay long before March comes around when it starts warming up again. Even with this coming cold, this winter has been a very mild one so far with not much snow or cold. Hopefully spring won’t be cold like some prior years either.
Second map looks like a troll on Quebec.
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Old 01-28-2023, 07:58 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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No way the 12z Euro / 18z GFS verify exactly like that for Toronto next weekend. Cold yes, but not that cold.

Lookiing at the NAEFS ensemble range you can see the 25-75% percentile temperature for Toronto is between roughly -9°C to -22°C on February 4. The control member near -30°C is an extreme outlier.


Source: https://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/EPSgrams_e.html
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Old 01-28-2023, 08:04 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancerman View Post
Second map looks like a troll on Quebec.
Yeah, -36F is the all-time record they're predicting for the Montreal area.
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Old 01-29-2023, 05:43 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Latest Euro update last night goes colder! Usually the GFS is the drunk one


-30C (-22F) just 5000' over NYC Surface struggles past single digits F. lolol






Also look at the precip column. "Too Cold To Snow" again. Too much push south with the PV
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Old 01-29-2023, 06:43 AM
 
29,561 posts, read 19,658,126 times
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Very mild January here second warmest on record. Europe was very mild too but most of Asia Africa Australia and South America were colder than normal






Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
-33F/-36C for King North
-28F/-33C for Pearson
-20F/-29C for Downtown/Toronto Islands
???

That's some kool-aid they've been drinking...

Some local forecasters seem to be calling for temperatures down to -15F in Toronto on the night of Feb 4-5, which would already be quite exceptional. But -28F for Pearson would be 13F colder than the coldest it's ever seen in the past 2 decades, and 4F colder than the 1994 record.
Yeah it's just a model run. Probably way over done though it will get cold most of the next 12 days


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