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Old 11-17-2023, 05:05 PM
 
30,395 posts, read 21,215,773 times
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Gonna be a record hot winter for my area. Most of the rain will be north and south of me.
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Old 11-17-2023, 06:19 PM
 
Location: St. Louis Park, MN
7,733 posts, read 6,450,446 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX View Post
That makes no sense. I have been assured by experts, as well as some people of this forum, that it snows more when it's warmer.
This only applies to places that are normally very cold in winter. The biggest snowstorms are when temps are around freezing. But obviously if its TOO warm its not gonna snow.

Last January was relatively mild in my area with temps (Average high of 26, average low of 14. Average low is what stood out, normal low is 9) but we recorded 22.3" of snow, double our snowfall average of 11".
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Old 11-18-2023, 06:57 AM
SFX
 
Location: Tennessee
1,634 posts, read 889,305 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Arktikos View Post
Anchorage AK has recorded 38.1 inches of snow for November. It’s the second highest total ever on record, with room to possibly set a new high mark for the month. Only needs .9 more for that.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX View Post
That makes no sense. I have been assured by experts, as well as some people of this forum, that it snows more when it's warmer.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pincho-toot View Post
This only applies to places that are normally very cold in winter.
What places are those? More importantly, what places does the "it snows more because it's warmer" claim not apply to?

Just to be clear, you are saying "it snows more when it's warmer", but only those places that are normally very cold in winter. What places do you mean? And what exactly does "very cold" mean?

(We can leave high altitudes and the arctic/antarctic out of this, neither of them matter to the vast majority of people on the planet.)

I'm serious, I want to know what places "are normally very cold in winter."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pincho-toot View Post
This only applies to places that are normally very cold in winter.
For reference

Last edited by SFX; 11-18-2023 at 07:03 AM.. Reason: added ref
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Old 11-18-2023, 07:56 AM
 
Location: Juneau, AK + Puna, HI
10,545 posts, read 7,735,179 times
Reputation: 16038
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX View Post
What places are those? More importantly, what places does the "it snows more because it's warmer" claim not apply to?..
It doesn't apply to coastal Alaska locations such as Juneau. Instead of snow, we get rain when it's warmer. Indeed, that is the general trend over the past few years.

It also doesn't seem to apply with Valdez, snow capital of the US. They are no longer receiving 300+ inches a year on average. Again, I believe it's because more precipitation is falling as rain.

Anchorage is typically a bit colder, so maybe your explanation is accurate there.

Fairbanks is really cold. It would be interesting to look at their snowfall totals the past few years compared to the historical averages.
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Old 11-18-2023, 10:41 AM
 
Location: New York Area
34,993 posts, read 16,964,237 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pincho-toot View Post
This only applies to places that are normally very cold in winter. The biggest snowstorms are when temps are around freezing. But obviously if its TOO warm its not gonna snow.

Last January was relatively mild in my area with temps (Average high of 26, average low of 14. Average low is what stood out, normal low is 9) but we recorded 22.3" of snow, double our snowfall average of 11".
NYC has gotten some of its bigger snowfalls with temps in teens and low 20's. Examples are February 1967 Blizzard, "Boxing Day" Blizzard (December 26, 2010), January 1996 Blizzard, and the January 2005 snowstorm. The January 2016 storm (all-time record), Christmas 1947 storm and February 2006 Storm took place in upper 20's. The February 25-26, 2010 and Mayor Lindsay February 1969 storm took place close to freezing.

So that's not always true.
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Old 11-18-2023, 01:08 PM
 
Location: Zagreb
86 posts, read 43,962 times
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GFS 12Z showing a very cold start of December for Europe.
Could happen but I doubt it would be so strong.


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Old 11-18-2023, 01:40 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
5,720 posts, read 3,504,425 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tompas View Post
GFS 12Z showing a very cold start of December for Europe.
Could happen but I doubt it would be so strong.

GFS ensembles are on board with this idea but the Euro ones not so much. More or less a coin toss.


Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Old 11-18-2023, 02:52 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,886 posts, read 6,088,552 times
Reputation: 3168
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX View Post
What places are those? More importantly, what places does the "it snows more because it's warmer" claim not apply to?

Just to be clear, you are saying "it snows more when it's warmer", but only those places that are normally very cold in winter. What places do you mean? And what exactly does "very cold" mean?

(We can leave high altitudes and the arctic/antarctic out of this, neither of them matter to the vast majority of people on the planet.)

I'm serious, I want to know what places "are normally very cold in winter."



For reference
I haven't looked through the data, but I think the places you should look at to test the claim should be places where the entirety of winter has average temperatures well below freezing.

There's a much higher rate of change in temperature between late March and late April, compared to mid January vs mid February. That means that somewhere where Dec-Feb are well below freezing, a slightly warmer cold season will only result in a slight reduction in freezing temperatures in spring and fall with winter remaining safely below freezing, whereas somewhere that has a January mean of 32F/0C will see big decreases in the among of freezing hours during a warmer cold season.

So I'd be looking at places where Dec/Jan/Feb have daily highs comfortably below freezing, say around 20F or colder. Ex Timmins, Fairbanks, Labrador City, Nain, Winnipeg, Fort McMurray, Saskatoon, Chicoutimi.

Another approach could be to look at more moderately cold places like Chicago, Toronto, Boston, Omaha, and see what the distribution of snowfall is according to temperature. Ex how many cm/day of snow do these cities get when the daily mean is -10C or colder, -5C to -10C, 0C to -5C, or >0C (ex high of 3C, low of -1C with the snow falling overnight). I would not be surprised at all if these cities saw more cm/day of snow on the 0C to -5C days than on the <-10C days.
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Old 11-18-2023, 06:51 PM
 
29,502 posts, read 19,602,720 times
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JMA suggest a mild December but then colder for January in the east and maybe very cold in February






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Old 11-20-2023, 05:51 AM
 
29,502 posts, read 19,602,720 times
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Imagine the CFSv2 being correct about this



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