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Old 12-18-2023, 10:39 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,902 posts, read 6,111,296 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
Heh. That same strong area of low pressure that brought me 3+ inches of rain is blowing large amounts of tropical air from the western Atlantic into maritime Canada. Enjoy the warm air we sent you, lol.
Well, over here it's not that warm, the warmth was never that pronounced (10-16F above average) and has already passed as we were already getting wet snow this afternoon and tonight will be 21F (average would be a low of ~19F).
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Old 12-19-2023, 03:55 AM
 
29,543 posts, read 19,636,351 times
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Cold morning. Average low temp for Dec 19th at IKK is 21F. For MDW and ORD it is 24F





Is patience a virtue? By the end of the month the teleconnections according to the ECMWF will be a -AO,
-EPO, -NAO, and a +PNA. so if that is the case then you would expect much more wintry conditions in the eastern 2/3rds around New Years or shortly after










Complete torch in the 6-10 day




but you can see it easing in the 11-15 day

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Old 12-19-2023, 06:18 AM
 
Location: Southern West Virginia
763 posts, read 379,988 times
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We had our first decent snowfall of the season last night into this morning. I recorded 3 inches at my house.

It would be nice to have this snow stick around until Christmas, but it is going to be in the 50s later this week. It looks like our chances of a white Christmas are almost zero this year.

It is 21F right now, and we’re not supposed to get above freezing today so the snow will live to see another day.
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Old 12-19-2023, 06:22 AM
Status: "....." (set 17 days ago)
 
Location: Europe
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Rain, grey, gloomy 4C = 39F.....predictions are yet another no snow Christmas.
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Old 12-19-2023, 07:34 AM
 
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Down the road in January the pattern presented below looks ripe for colder temps and snowstorms at least for the northern tier of CONUS




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Old 12-19-2023, 09:24 AM
 
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Could reach 55F/13C here on Christmas Day. Normal high is 35F/2C.... Brown Christmas

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Old 12-19-2023, 07:21 PM
 
Location: 30461
2,508 posts, read 1,849,653 times
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9 PM and it's already 30 F/-1 C here

Charleston Airport now 37 F
Augusta Daniel Field now 37 F
Savannah Airport now 35 F

It's going to be a long night, lol.

Gainesville Airport is already 41 F/5 C. Let's see how low they go
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Old 12-19-2023, 07:39 PM
 
2,831 posts, read 1,415,610 times
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Kudos to you for getting my style right! Always fun replying to comments like this.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
9 PM and it's already 30 F/-1 C here
Keep up the good work, frost hollow Statesboro.
Quote:
Charleston Airport now 37 F
Augusta Daniel Field now 37 F
Savannah Airport now 35 F

It's going to be a long night, lol.
Lol, it's sure fun checking in on our fallen friends. At least we have seen some good performance for most of 'em before it was over.
Quote:
Gainesville Airport is already 41 F/5 C. Let's see how low they go
Tonight the clouds and wind are my friends. The weather forecast says they will remain steady at 3C all night long thanks to consistent clouds and up to 15 km/h wind, plus the wet soil that helps underperforming.

See you in the morning. Based on the forecasts a New Years Day first frost for Gainesville Airport is looking all the more likely, it's looking like this is Gainesville Airport's equivalent to something like the lucky January 2 2018 first frost that Jacksonville Airport got in the 2017-18 winter as opposed to the much more widespread December 9-11 first frosts.
Making it all the more appreciable.
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Old 12-19-2023, 07:45 PM
 
Location: 30461
2,508 posts, read 1,849,653 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Can't think of username View Post
Kudos to you for getting my style right! Always fun replying to comments like this.

Tonight the clouds and wind are my friends. The weather forecast says they will remain steady at 3C all night long thanks to consistent clouds and up to 15 km/h wind, plus the wet soil that helps underperforming.

See you in the morning. Based on the forecasts a New Years Day first frost for Gainesville Airport is looking all the more likely.
I was reading through NWS Jacksonville's forecast, and this may be the one feature that ends up preventing Gainesville from freezing:

"An inverted trough is expected to develop over the coastal waters which will result in an increase in cloud cover overnight, from southeast to northwest."

So yeah, weaker coastal feature = more radiational cooling
Stronger coastal feature = less cooling, more wind and clouds
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Old 12-19-2023, 07:53 PM
 
2,831 posts, read 1,415,610 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
I was reading through NWS Jacksonville's forecast, and this may be the one feature that ends up preventing Gainesville from freezing:

"An inverted trough is expected to develop over the coastal waters which will result in an increase in cloud cover overnight, from southeast to northwest."

So yeah, weaker coastal feature = more radiational cooling
Stronger coastal feature = less cooling, more wind and clouds
In this case I think they might even avoid a frost if the forecast called for a weaker coastal feature and strong radiational cooling. Any other scenario I'd agree that the wind and clouds would be the one save, but as I alluded to there's been more than 130mm of rain a very short time ago to saturate up that soil - think of the converse of what happened with the dry soil on the October 20 2022 widespread frosts.

But yes, anything to help is welcome. I hope we get strong coastal features for Gainesville Airport in future radiational cooling events where the soil is dry so they can be the one saving feature.
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