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Old 12-26-2023, 11:38 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,892 posts, read 6,093,260 times
Reputation: 3168

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Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
Even here in Centre Wellington it got pretty warm, over 8C. Daily record is 12.5C from 2021. But there are other mid-December days where the daily record is 7-10C, so this is probably still in the top 2-4% for daily highs.

December has been mild enough, and November slightly below average, such that by some metrics, December might end up less winterlike. The three metrics to watch

November 2023
Snowfall: 5"
Average Low: -2.7C
Monthly Low: -11.2C

December 2023 MTD
Snowfall: 3"
Average Low: -1.6C
Monthly Low: -7.1C
Well, the snowfall is just a rounding error ahead (4.7" vs 4.9").

But the December 2023 MTD average daily low is -1.7C, and the extreme low is still -7.1C, so looks like December will be less wintry than November on those metrics. Based on the forecast, the average low will end up being -1.5C if not warmer, and the coldest remaining nights are forecast to be -5C, so there's a slight chance that the monthly extreme low will end up colder than -7.1C, but very unlikely to beat the November extreme low of -11.2C.
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Old 12-27-2023, 06:35 AM
 
29,509 posts, read 19,608,209 times
Reputation: 4535
The high yesterday was 50F at MIDNIGHT in late December but temps then fell sharply throughout the day









Temps will remain above normal until the end of the month









One for the record books




Every month except March has been above normal this year. Especially the winter and fall months with April/May just behind them.




Link
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Old 12-27-2023, 06:40 AM
 
2,819 posts, read 1,407,410 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Can't think of username View Post
Time for a little winter anticipation time.

The forecast until December 20 for Gainesville Airport has not a single low under 7C. I think it is a very safe bet there will be no 7C+ overperformances, so certainly they are going to remain frost free until at least the beginning of winter (read: 'ideal' territory) and most likely more.

Even going with the earliest possible first frost date it would be the third longest frost free season ever at 326 days, beating out the old 2015 record of 323 days and being 41 days/14.5% longer than the average of 282 days.

If Gainesville Airport is lucky enough to last into 2024 for the first frost of the 2023-24 winter, they would only need to last until January 4 to beat the 1994 second longest record of 339 days. That would be 58 days/20.5% longer than the average.

To get extra lucky and tie or exceed the 2021 record of 347 days, they would need to either tie the January 11 2016 record for second earliest first frost, or set a new second earliest first frost of at least January 12. And this would be extra satisfying because it'd be the second latest first frost right on the heels of the second earliest last frost.

Of these I think it is most likely for a new record for second-longest frost free season to be set, but ever since the weather monitoring for this season begun I've been hoping for No. 3. There are no words to describe how fabulous the back-to-back-to-back-to-back-to-back tiptop performances for Gainesville Airport are, especially in the face of multiple other Southeast US places just being straight up ripoffs at the same time.
As of today the only concern is a 1C forecast for the morning of December 31. If that does not overperform, the 2023 frost-free season will definitely last until at least that January 4 threshold to become the second-longest ever, and even if it does a 335 day long frost free season will be very good.

I really wonder, if December 31 does not overperform, can the January 11-12 threshold be reached to tie or exceed the previous record for longest frost free season?

And of course, it's time to be keeping an eye on Texas and Louisiana as well.
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Old 12-27-2023, 07:27 AM
 
Location: Spring Hill, FL
4,295 posts, read 1,554,674 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LKJ1988 View Post
Been cooler than norm for me for a while.
I was just thinking, any chance of Dec being below average? Been a pleasant surprise, and I've had more rain than I had in September.
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Old 12-27-2023, 10:08 AM
 
Location: St. Louis Park, MN
7,733 posts, read 6,453,412 times
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What a lousy and bizzare start to winter. Barely any snow all month and just rain and 50s on Christmas.

We had our warmest September on record this year and looks like another record to be set for warmest December.
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Old 12-27-2023, 10:26 AM
 
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Lots of snow building over Western CONUS and New England but not much here

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Old 12-27-2023, 12:53 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Old 12-27-2023, 01:20 PM
 
29,509 posts, read 19,608,209 times
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Don't give up hope yet



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Old 12-27-2023, 03:33 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,509 posts, read 75,260,686 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Don't give up hope yet
I wont but I call it the push back game. Been playing this game for a while...
It'll be spring before we know it. lol. Guess I'll take 1 month of winter if it does come
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Old 12-27-2023, 04:52 PM
 
30,424 posts, read 21,228,470 times
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Cloudy every day. Still no cold this year yet. But no 80's so that is good.
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