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Old 12-30-2023, 04:35 PM
 
120 posts, read 75,426 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Can't think of username View Post
That does explain it. If it's somewhat below normal rain with somewhat above average highs that would increase evaporation, certainly there is room for overperformance.

But that summer drought, I have seen your 2023 Alexandria weatherbox in the August 2023 summary thread and it is really frightening.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ral31 View Post
We've been in a pretty severe drought since summer. We have been getting enough rain the past few weeks to keep the soil from drying out too much, but still less moist than typical (around 2 inches below normal precip for the month of December).

Average low for this December is close to normal, though the average high is about 4F above normal.
The South Central US drought the past summer was indeed awful for Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi (with some heat extents into Alabama and Panhandle FL). But yes, there has been enough El-Nino rains in the worst-stricken areas such that I don't think they are the biggest factor in any freeze "overperformances".

Instead, anything to do with site topography (hilltops and hillsides versus depressions), as well as wind speed and dewpoint play a bigger role in this instance.

Last edited by kemakai; 12-30-2023 at 04:46 PM..
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Old 12-30-2023, 07:55 PM
 
2,819 posts, read 1,407,410 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kemakai View Post
The South Central US drought the past summer was indeed awful for Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi (with some heat extents into Alabama and Panhandle FL). But yes, there has been enough El-Nino rains in the worst-stricken areas such that I don't think they are the biggest factor in any freeze "overperformances".

Instead, anything to do with site topography (hilltops and hillsides versus depressions), as well as wind speed and dewpoint play a bigger role in this instance.
I will agree to an extent: the variability in rainfall from area to area has made topography and radiator-enhancing weather conditions more important in some places than others.
Compared to Alexandria, Dallas and Fort Worth come to mind: unlike dry Alexandria they received over 200mm of rain back in October immediately prior to the radiational November 1-2 cold front and as a result underperformed with frost forecasts failing to materialize, vs Alexandria's unexpected and overperforming hard frost.

Generally, I welcome higher Southeast US rainfall prior to radiational cold fronts for those reasons. It helps minimize heat loss regardless of topography, and every bit counts.

Last edited by Can't think of username; 12-30-2023 at 08:13 PM..
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Old 12-30-2023, 07:59 PM
 
2,819 posts, read 1,407,410 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Can't think of username View Post
2023 shall be Houston George Bush Airport's first ever frost-free calendar year! Exactly like the reputation comment I got predicted to have been the case.
Now it's time to see if they can tie or beat the January 11 2016 record. Or better yet have the first frost-free winter season ever!

Lol.

In all seriousness, the overperforming was alarming because it may be a harbinger of something more dangerous to come in March when overperforming is not good period. I hope I'm wrong about that though, it would be much better if the overperforming is related to the fact that the nights are nearly the longest now (meaning late winter's much shorter nights will be less likely to).

And if they overperformed today I would say the 0C watch is well deserved for tonight with its 1C forecast. That would make for a December 31 first frost, not the January 2024 first frost I wanted but nearly as fabulous, and would make up for a year like 2016 where they got cheated out of a December 31 first frost.

Edit: it should be noted for comparison that Jacksonville Airport reached 0C this morning. If they're going to be outdone by Gainesville Airport I will keep poking fun at it, this means they are 2 extra frosts and a full month behind Gainesville!
Now that I have access to weather.gov again, some more updates.

Looks like Huntsville Texas Airport reached 0C today. December 30 is very impressive as a first frost for it!

The potentially questionable Conroe Airport showed up as 1C today in the monthly data for December 2023. If that is accurate instead of questionable it's even more impressive than Houston George Bush Airport, considering this is a colder, rural site further to the north that can sometimes be a frost hollow.

And finally, at this point I am starting to doubt 0C for Gainesville Airport tomorrow. At the time of this comment they are at 8C - but this is a radiational cold front that can only get so cold before sunrise vs an advective cold front that could drop temperatures much faster.
Whatever happens, we shall see tomorrow.
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Old 12-31-2023, 04:16 AM
 
30,424 posts, read 21,228,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kemakai View Post
The South Central US drought the past summer was indeed awful for Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi (with some heat extents into Alabama and Panhandle FL). But yes, there has been enough El-Nino rains in the worst-stricken areas such that I don't think they are the biggest factor in any freeze "overperformances".

Instead, anything to do with site topography (hilltops and hillsides versus depressions), as well as wind speed and dewpoint play a bigger role in this instance.
My part of FL was dryer than anywhere else. I am 25" below normal for the year. All the rest of FL had 60 to 120". Now that our summer pattern is gone for good the west coast will be like the ME area of the world out past 70 years with little rain year round while inland and east coast get all the rain.
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Old 12-31-2023, 05:51 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,509 posts, read 75,260,686 times
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Feels like I haven't had a dedicated storm thread in a long time!

Next Weekend looks interesting as all models indicate a storm on the map. [STILL 7 DAYS AWAY SO GET THAT SALT]

They also indicate an E/ENE move staying south of Nova Scotia but that's too detailed right now. Might indicate blocking up north which would mean it wouldn't come up the coast.

Euro stays closest to the coast bringing an interior snowstorm. Note the track, that's not a track for the coast snowstorm but there would be some snow for the coast.

German model is most suppressed south so the snow would be too

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Old 12-31-2023, 06:24 AM
 
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No 80's for a while. May go a whole month of no 80's.
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Old 12-31-2023, 07:29 AM
 
Location: 30461
2,505 posts, read 1,846,633 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Can't think of username View Post
And finally, at this point I am starting to doubt 0C for Gainesville Airport tomorrow. At the time of this comment they are at 8C - but this is a radiational cold front that can only get so cold before sunrise vs an advective cold front that could drop temperatures much faster.
Whatever happens, we shall see tomorrow.
Gainesville had another 34 F near miss this morning. Interestingly, Jacksonville had it's 2nd freeze yesterday morning (not sure if this morning is a freeze or 33 F near miss), so that's at least 2 freezes for KJAX and 0 still for KGNV.
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Old 12-31-2023, 07:32 AM
 
30,424 posts, read 21,228,470 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
Gainesville had another 34 F near miss this morning. Interestingly, Jacksonville had it's 2nd freeze yesterday morning (not sure if this morning is a freeze or 33 F near miss), so that's at least 2 freezes for KJAX and 0 still for KGNV.
Not my Gainsville. No 30's anywhere near me yet this year.
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Old 12-31-2023, 07:33 AM
 
Location: 30461
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Feels like I haven't had a dedicated storm thread in a long time!

Next Weekend looks interesting as all models indicate a storm on the map. [STILL 7 DAYS AWAY SO GET THAT SALT]

They also indicate an E/ENE move staying south of Nova Scotia but that's too detailed right now. Might indicate blocking up north which would mean it wouldn't come up the coast.

Euro stays closest to the coast bringing an interior snowstorm. Note the track, that's not a track for the coast snowstorm but there would be some snow for the coast.

German model is most suppressed south so the snow would be too
My forecast shows a good deal of rain down here Wed night with colder temps, I'm guessing that storm system is staying south?
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Old 12-31-2023, 07:38 AM
 
2,819 posts, read 1,407,410 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident View Post
Gainesville had another 34 F near miss this morning. Interestingly, Jacksonville had it's 2nd freeze yesterday morning (not sure if this morning is a freeze or 33 F near miss), so that's at least 2 freezes for KJAX and 0 still for KGNV.
You really need to make your New Year's resolution about stopping all this beating me to the punch. Or I should make mine about beating you instead.

Indeed, I noticed! It looks like Gainesville Airport is trying to get revenge for the times it was outdone (like December 10 2017 vs January 2 2018 or January 22 vs March 1 2020).
And it definitely shall. A >1 month gap and 2+ discrepancy in frosts is hella payback.

Also interestingly it looks like the 1C forecast was exactly right for Gainesville Airport despite yesterday overperforming. I was seriously expecting a <0C overperformance (edit: prior to my doubting), not that I'm complaining though.
That is their 4th lucky 1C near miss this month! So far there have been a total of 5 this season and 6 this year (including March 16 2023).

Now Gainesville Airport is certainly going to have the second longest frost free season ever, if not beat out 2021 for the longest should they make it to January 12. I can't overstate how awesome a performance like this is.
It also helps beef up their 7-year-long streak of good first frosts. The first 4 were all less than a week away from the average, while these last 3 have all been at least >19 days late and into 'ideal' territory past the winter solstice - needless to say that is far more fun to monitor.

Last edited by Can't think of username; 12-31-2023 at 08:23 AM..
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