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Old 11-05-2023, 08:10 PM
 
29,505 posts, read 19,602,720 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
What is the consensus? Debbie downer, cheers, or somewhere in between?
I dont really know. If this continues to be a traditionally strong East based El Nino then it's likely the g
Great Lakes and probably the East will have a mild dry winter. If it progresses Westward and the Eastern and so cools off a bit then that would open the opportunities for more cold and snow for the Eastern two-thirds. I'm not going to hold my breath. A met who I follow a lot he's a he has a YouTube channel and is a professional meteorologist Eric Snodgrass out of Illinois I believe Peoria, he thinks that other teleconnections may play as big or a bigger role this winter than El Nino as long as El Nino stays under it 2C positive anomalies
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Old 11-06-2023, 04:46 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
What is the consensus? Debbie downer, cheers, or somewhere in between?
No El Nino at all for my area. We would have had rain by now and have had nothing all year. Back when we had a real El Nino i had plenty of rain in Oct of 1997.
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Old 11-06-2023, 08:35 AM
 
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The latest Euro seasonal model isn't showing it to be too torchy here over the 3 month winter period. Much milder to the north though. Looks closer to normal for both temps and precip for much of the Lower Great Lakes and Midwest. Maybe just slightly above normal in temps in Wisconsin and Michigan. More above normal for Minnesota.



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Old 11-07-2023, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Zagreb
89 posts, read 43,962 times
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ECWMF showing no snow for me and Europe as per usual:







More interesting picture for NA though:







Source:
https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-r...ada-europe-fa/
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Old 11-07-2023, 07:31 PM
SFX
 
Location: Tennessee
1,634 posts, read 889,305 times
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A lot of snow already happening in the Alps

Nov 6 2023

Oct 6 2023
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Old 11-08-2023, 09:55 AM
 
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Monthly snowfall anomalies according to the latest ECMWF seasonal model

December looks lame



But January and February have potential





https://x.com/BenNollWeather/status/...424738772?s=20
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Old 11-09-2023, 04:26 PM
 
Location: Juneau, AK + Puna, HI
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Anchorage, AK had a record snowfall for Nov. 8 yesterday of 9 inches.
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Old 11-10-2023, 08:14 AM
 
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December torch for the West? Cool and stormy in the West?


Quote:
December is starting to come into view on long range NWP guidance & the latest JMA, CFSv2, & ECMWF weeklies all agree on a strong +NAO/+AO/-PNA becoming established within the next 3-4 weeks.

Western-SW US troughing + eastern US-SE Canada ridge pattern (a -TNH) showing up in December is one of the classic hallmarks of a strong, east-based El Niño.








https://x.com/webberweather/status/1...392475783?s=20



Colder January and maybe very cold February. Another backloaded winter which lasts 6 weeks into Spring?



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Old 11-10-2023, 08:23 AM
 
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Sure won't be in the east. All the rain and action will be west.
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Old 11-10-2023, 06:05 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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CENTRAL-BASED EL NINO EVOLVING

15-day trends of overall mean SST's you see deeper/warmer sea surface temperatures in the central pacific.

Climatologically speaking this variable alone supports a colder/stormier pattern over the eastern USA

QBO is in Easterly phase. This tied to El nino produces a cold pattern. Enso alone is a big player but this QBO coupled with an El nino year is NOT a warm/ low snow winter

Lets come back to this post in 3 months
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