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Old 09-22-2023, 05:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,502 posts, read 75,252,292 times
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Well, since NOAA came out with their winter forecast might as well start this thread...



And a reminder of their previous forecasts and what actually happened. I have to add last years into the collage.

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Old 09-26-2023, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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I used to fall for the hype...hahahaha... Now its just entertaining with a little bit of interest


https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...LOy3VutOA&s=19
Attached Thumbnails
Winter 2023-24 (Northern Hemisphere)-screenshot_20230926_152519_x.jpg  
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Old 09-26-2023, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Boilermaker Territory
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Bastardi needs to go to an island with no communication to anyone.
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Old 09-26-2023, 08:02 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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^^ Not a chance. (In reference to Bastardi's forecast.)
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Old 09-26-2023, 09:33 PM
 
Location: Boilermaker Territory
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
^^ Not a chance. (In reference to Bastardi's forecast.)
You’ve got that correct, has about 0.1% chance of verifying.
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Old 09-27-2023, 05:06 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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"Meteorologist Believes Strong El Niño Will Deliver "Above Average Snow Across The South"

It's important to remember that no meteorologist, no matter how intelligent or adept, can predict the weather with 100% accuracy. Not yet, at least.

With that said, it appears that POW Ponder on Weather agrees with other meteorologists that places like Lake Tahoe, The San Juans of Southern Colorado, northern New Mexico, and even Northern Arizona could see above-average snowfall should a strong El Niño develop.

On the flip side, snowfall in the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, Midwest, and Mid-Atlantic could be well below-average.



https://www.powder.com/trending-news...el-nino-winter
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Winter 2023-24 (Northern Hemisphere)-screenshot_20230927_065929_chrome.jpg  
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Old 09-27-2023, 11:11 PM
 
Location: White House, TN
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I sense a winter with lots of snow and lots of 65-75 degree spells between the snows here in Tennessee. Y'all buckle up for the roller coaster.
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Old 09-28-2023, 04:29 AM
 
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Severe Weather Europe says this


Winter 2023/2024 is starting to trend colder in the latest forecast, with large-scale El Nino influence across the United States, Canada and Europe
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Old 09-28-2023, 06:13 AM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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So, looks like maybe a slightly warm and dry winter here, but with potential for some cold air outbreaks. Probably still not as warm as last winter. Maybe more warm early winter and more average late winter?

The 2009-2010 analog was an average winter, with warm Nov and start to spring. The coldest temperature was -8.7F, which is pretty mild. Even during the warm 2022-2023 winter, we managed to drop to -15.2F on Feb 4, which is about typical for an annual low.

Oct: -2.7F
Nov: +4.5F
Dec: -1.1F
Jan: +0.4F
Feb: +0.9F
Mar: +7.4F
Apr: +5.6F
May: +2.9F

October was mainly cold due to a mid-month cold stretch, the last 1/3 of the month was warm, and the first part of the month was only slightly below average. This year, October is looking off to a rather different start though. Aside from the cold October though, that analog looks lovely. A proper winter, without even getting excessively cold, but a very nice start to spring. Even May was warm, outside of a cold 2nd week that delivered an early than usual last freeze on May 10, before diving headfirst into summer in the second half of the month. A warm November is preferable over a cold one to me as well.



The 2014-2015 analog is rather dramatically different. After an inconsistent start, with December being almost as warm as November, and a monthly low that was of 10.8F, which was warmer than the 5F monthly low recorded on Nov 21, things turned cold, and then colder. January's coldest temperature was -8.7F, matching 2009-2010, but then February beat 2009-2010's seasonal low nine times, with the coldest being -24.2F, making it one of the coldest Februaries on record, with the cold continuing into the first week of March, dropping as low as -13.2F on March 6, with more average temperatures for the rest of the month.

Oct: +0.4F
Nov: -4.5F
Dec: +3.6F
Jan: -4.1F
Feb: -9.7F
Mar: -4.7F
Apr: -0.5F
May: +4.5F

May was quite nice with 19 days in the 70s (about double the average), except for a 26.6F freeze on May 23, a week later than the average last freeze, and not a light freeze either, in fact, probably in the top 5 coldest of the past 150 years for the last 10 days of May.



Definitely hoping for something closer to 2009-2010 than 2014-2015.

Last edited by memph; 09-28-2023 at 07:01 AM..
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