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Old 03-12-2024, 12:48 PM
 
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9_pmQ5M-ztI




Bam Weather saying cool down is coming but it might not be strong and not that long and the MJO is shown










Also La Nina might come on fast this summer




And three analog years that they give were 1998 2010 and 2016. Of these three only 2010 had a hot summer. 1998 was near normal. 2016 had a very warm June, near average July and August was a bit above average, but not a hot summer.

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Old 03-12-2024, 01:50 PM
 
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2010 and 2016 were very hot summers here in the Philly area. They are 2 of the 3 hottest summers of all time, with 2022 the other. 2016 was also the hottest August until 2022.

That said, I don't think 2016 is the best analog year. That only transitioned into a weak la nina. It's clear we're getting at least a moderate, and most likely a strong la nina. 1973 and 1988 are better analog years than 2016.

Of these four strong el nino to strong la nina transition years (1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010), only 1998 didn't produce a record hot summer in Philly at the time.
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Old 03-12-2024, 01:55 PM
 
Location: Etobicoke
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
Starting to wonder if this March will be warmer than 2012... Even if we don't get a 2012 intensity of heat wave, 2012 had some cold days too. The coldest days here have merely been average with long stretches of well above average days.
Doesn't look like it with the forecast of next week.
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Old 03-12-2024, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancerman View Post
Doesn't look like it with the forecast of next week.
Average max in Toronto March 2012 was 12.4°C.

Average max in Toronto so far this month has been 9.6°C.

Safe to say 2012 will not be beat. But this month could still end up well above normal.
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Old 03-12-2024, 03:20 PM
 
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High was 70F here 72F at Midway and 71F at ORD
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Old 03-12-2024, 03:50 PM
 
Location: Markham, Ontario
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1998, 2010 and 2016 were all hot, dry summers for us so bring it!

2016 especially was so dry it was almost desert-like around here by August of that year.
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Old 03-12-2024, 05:31 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
Average max in Toronto March 2012 was 12.4°C.

Average max in Toronto so far this month has been 9.6°C.

Safe to say 2012 will not be beat. But this month could still end up well above normal.
Yeah, probably not. But the heat anomaly so far is actually stronger compared to 2012. This is for Elora RCS

March 2012: 5.5C
March normal: -2.0C (1940-2023 average)
Anomaly: +7.5C

March 1-12 2024: 5.1C
March 1-12 normal: -4.1C
Anomaly: +9.2C

Mar 13-17 2024 forecast: 5.4C
Mar 13-17 normal: -2.3C
Anomaly: +7.7C

Mar 1-17 anomaly: +8.7C

March 18-31 would have to be ~5.9C above average to maintain a 7.5C anomaly for the month as a whole. So yeah, that does seem unlikely, although it does seem possible that the cold will underdeliver and the remaining two weeks will be pretty much average, for an overall monthly anomaly of 4-5C (compared to the 1940-2023 average).

I'd have to double check but I believe 2012 was the warmest year on record here, even including past nearby stations in operation (Elora RCS was just 2003-2024). The anomalies (vs 2003-2023 average) were

2012 vs 2003-2023 average
Jan: +2.9C
Feb: +4.3C
Mar: +6.9C
Apr: -0.3C
May: +2.3C
Jun: +0.9C
Jul: +1.9C
Aug: +0.1C
Sep: -1.3C
Oct: -0.2C
Nov: -0.7C
Dec: +2.2C
Avg: +1.6C


2024 vs 2023-2023 average
Jan: +2.7C
Feb: +5.4C
Mar: +4.1C (prediction for the whole month)

So not quite as warm of a start as 2012, but it would only need to be 0.8C above normal for the remaining 9 months to achieve a +1.6C anomaly like 2012. And if the remaining 9 months are merely average (literally just +0.0C), it would already be the second warmest year at Elora RCS (2003-2023)
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Old 03-12-2024, 07:51 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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LOL, I knew this would happen.

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Old 03-12-2024, 08:19 PM
 
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Looks like the Euro is not going to keep the cool spell coming over the Midwest Great Lakes for too long


Quote:
Originally Posted by PhiEaglesfan712 View Post
2010 and 2016 were very hot summers here in the Philly area. They are 2 of the 3 hottest summers of all time, with 2022 the other. 2016 was also the hottest August until 2022.

That said, I don't think 2016 is the best analog year. That only transitioned into a weak la nina. It's clear we're getting at least a moderate, and most likely a strong la nina. 1973 and 1988 are better analog years than 2016.

Of these four strong el nino to strong la nina transition years (1973, 1988, 1998, and 2010), only 1998 didn't produce a record hot summer in Philly at the time.
You make some good points. 1973 was a hot summer here. 1988 was one of the hottest on record on par with the Dust Bowl summers.
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Old 03-13-2024, 04:41 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Looks like the Euro is not going to keep the cool spell coming over the Midwest Great Lakes for too long




You make some good points. 1973 was a hot summer here. 1988 was one of the hottest on record on par with the Dust Bowl summers.
I loved Sept 88 with super heavy rain.
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