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Old 02-18-2024, 08:20 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Well the Euro showing cool conditions for the US for March




I just want a 1980's March when we had the coldest weather of the year like March 3rd 1980 when Tampa had a 29f and we had plenty of rain in March like in 1983.
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Old 02-19-2024, 07:38 AM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Well the Euro showing cool conditions for the US for March




The Euro weeklies have been so bad. All winter long they were promising western ridging and eastern troughing "just three weeks away". None of that ever panned out.

Their medium-range models (ensembles) however have been pretty good and, as expected, show nothing but a massive torch for the east to begin spring.


Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
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Old 02-20-2024, 08:13 AM
 
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Euro still showing cold west and warm east for March




but also plenty wet which will be good in erasing any drought in the Central and Eastern US.

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Old 02-20-2024, 09:14 AM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
The Euro weeklies have been so bad. All winter long they were promising western ridging and eastern troughing "just three weeks away". None of that ever panned out.

Their medium-range models (ensembles) however have been pretty good and, as expected, show nothing but a massive torch for the east to begin spring.


Source: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
Maybe Oakville will see winter aconites actually bloom in meteorological winter for the first time (that I can remember) this year.

Last year which was also a mild winter, they were already pretty early, they were already in full bloom on March 9 before getting 10cm of snow dumped on them.


On colder winters, it would take until late March for these to bloom.

Even up here, it looks like it will be warm enough to get the first flowers in early March.
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Old 02-21-2024, 07:28 AM
 
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April with a diminishing El Nino analogs along with what the CPC is showing for all of spring

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Old 02-21-2024, 07:42 AM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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March is usually a pretty wintery month here. A warm March often just means more mud and temperatures still too cold for the things I like about spring.

However, I will always be happy about a warm April and May for the Great Lakes.

2015 was the most near-average April in the past decade, and 2014 was the most near-average May.

What does that look like?

April 2015 daily highs
70s: 1
60s: 8
50s: 9
40s: 7
30s: 5

May 2014 daily highs
80s: 2
70s: 9
60s: 9
50s: 10
40s: 2

So I'm definitely down for fewer 30s-40s and more 60s in April, and more 70s and fewer 40s-50s in May.

Last edited by memph; 02-21-2024 at 07:57 AM..
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Old 02-21-2024, 08:51 AM
 
Location: Windsor Ontario/Colchester Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
Maybe Oakville will see winter aconites actually bloom in meteorological winter for the first time (that I can remember) this year.

Last year which was also a mild winter, they were already pretty early, they were already in full bloom on March 9 before getting 10cm of snow dumped on them.


On colder winters, it would take until late March for these to bloom.

Even up here, it looks like it will be warm enough to get the first flowers in early March.
We have had blooming Snowdrops, Crocus and winter Aconites here for the past week or two already. It’s been pretty mild lately with almost no snow to speak of.
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Old 02-21-2024, 10:00 AM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by North 42 View Post
We have had blooming Snowdrops, Crocus and winter Aconites here for the past week or two already. It’s been pretty mild lately with almost no snow to speak of.
Impressive. Not quite warm enough for that here but the next couple weeks could change that.

Haven't been down to Oakville/GTA in a couple weeks so I'm not sure how the spring flowers are coming along there.

February mean temps so far and departures from 1980-2010 normals

Windsor Airport: 1.2C (+3.8C)
Hamilton RBG: 0.0C (+3.9C)
Toronto Downtown: 1.1C (+3.8C)
Toronto Islands: 0.4C (+3.7C)
Toronto Pearson: -0.3C (+4.2C)
Elora RCS: -2.2C (+4.1C)
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Old 02-21-2024, 10:17 AM
 
Location: Bologna, Italy
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Already spring-like here, we're having typical mid/late march weather, except that the humidity as been unusually high with fog like in october/november.


Highs around 15/17c and lows around 5c are definitely warm for february.


I wonder if we'll ever get to experience an actual winter again in the future....
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Old 02-21-2024, 02:47 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
Impressive. Not quite warm enough for that here but the next couple weeks could change that.

Haven't been down to Oakville/GTA in a couple weeks so I'm not sure how the spring flowers are coming along there.

February mean temps so far and departures from 1980-2010 normals

Windsor Airport: 1.2C (+3.8C)
Hamilton RBG: 0.0C (+3.9C)
Toronto Downtown: 1.1C (+3.8C)
Toronto Islands: 0.4C (+3.7C)
Toronto Pearson: -0.3C (+4.2C)
Elora RCS: -2.2C (+4.1C)
Cherry blossoms and daffodils here.

It will be interesting to see how that works out if the forecast verifies. Could be a blood bath.
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