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Old 02-23-2024, 10:32 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jasperzank View Post
Why are you listening to and copypasta'ing Joe Bustardi's posts? He's been calling for imminent cold for 5 months straight - since November (which, ended up as one of warmest winters on record). continually kicking the can all the way into March now.

That guy has no credibility whatsoever, sorry.


Well the NAO going negative and the MJO finally moving into a colder phase 3 has nothing to do with Bastardi or his credibility. The analogs support a cold snap after the first week of March. We'll see if it happens. Bastardi thought the MJO would have moved into colder phases in mid February but instead the went into "null phase" so El Nino has been the dominant driver.


Btw,


it's not just Bastardi that thinks a cold spell is looming for March

Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post

Last edited by chicagogeorge; 02-23-2024 at 10:45 AM..
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Old 02-23-2024, 12:39 PM
 
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Even the Euro weeklies were calling for an eastern trough for early March



That's obviously not going to happen


https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1760795319887900883?s=20
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Old 02-23-2024, 02:51 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Even the Euro weeklies were calling for an eastern trough for early March



That's obviously not going to happen


https://x.com/MikeTFox5/status/1760795319887900883?s=20
The teleconnection forecasts were terrible for February.

Latest CPC forecasts are for a massive torch for the East, and especially the Great Lakes, for the entire month of March.
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Old 02-26-2024, 07:42 AM
 
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The latest from the Euro still showing a cool west warm east look for March. Also quite wet for the middle and southeast part of the country while the west coast dries out.



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Old 02-26-2024, 02:40 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
The latest from the Euro still showing a cool west warm east look for March. Also quite wet for the middle and southeast part of the country while the west coast dries out.


There are a lot of posters from the East who complain repeatedly about suffering from protracted winters and delayed springs but that hasn't actually happened to the East since March 2015--almost a decade ago.
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Old 02-26-2024, 04:02 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
There are a lot of posters from the East who complain repeatedly about suffering from protracted winters and delayed springs but that hasn't actually happened to the East since March 2015--almost a decade ago.
Depends. Over here, spring isn't really supposed to start in March because an average March is only going to have a mean temperature of -1.9C. However, this year, it looks like we'll have a February mean of -1.9C instead, and March will be warmer, although it remains to be seen if it will be warm enough to be truly spring-like.

The majority of plants only begin to break dormancy in April. April is when the likelihood of snow becomes pretty low (can get a bit, but much more rain than snow), when the ground thaws for good, the grass becomes green, a significant number of flowers start to bloom, etc. So in many regards, spring starts in April. And April has been rather cool lately. 2016, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022 have all had Aprils that were at least 1F below average.

May is in many ways "peak spring", with pleasantly mild temperatures, the spring migration of songbirds, and the peak in flowering trees and shrubs, and the time at which trees leaf out. And 2017, 2019, 2020, 2021 all had Mays at least 1F below average.

March has been warmer relative to averages, with 2016, 2020 and 2021 being well above average. However, those three years averaged out at a high/low of 6.1C/-3.7C, so only vaguely spring like, enough to get "winter flowers" like crocuses and snowdrops earlier than usual but not much else.
2018, 2022 and 2023 were near-normal Marchs, averaging with high/low temps of 2.7C/-5.5C, so still relatively winter-like.
2017 and 2019 were cold Marchs, at 1.4C/-7.2C.
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Old 02-26-2024, 05:49 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
There are a lot of posters from the East who complain repeatedly about suffering from protracted winters and delayed springs but that hasn't actually happened to the East since March 2015--almost a decade ago.
Never the case fir me. Blazing 90's coming soon.
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Old 02-27-2024, 05:07 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ed's Mountain View Post
There are a lot of posters from the East who complain repeatedly about suffering from protracted winters and delayed springs but that hasn't actually happened to the East since March 2015--almost a decade ago.
For us 2018 and 2019 were protracted winters that had cold February's and Marche's. 2021 had an extremely cold and snowy February but March was above normal. Even February 2022 was cold but March was above normal.
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Old 02-27-2024, 07:40 AM
 
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Latest from the Euro is seeing a pattern change after mid March as the MJO is supposed to move into it's colder phases. We'll see because that didn't happen in February but being that it's now going to be spring and I would want to see warm weather of course it will move into the colder phases














https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khW1xQqkTtY
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Old 02-28-2024, 11:48 AM
 
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Euro leaning slightly in favor for a warm second half of March


https://x.com/commoditywx/status/176...979283449?s=20
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