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Old 02-28-2024, 12:31 PM
 
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
5,721 posts, read 3,504,425 times
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Epic snowstorm coming to California.


Source: https://x.com/NWSSacramento/status/1...603284346?s=20
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Old 02-28-2024, 01:20 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,889 posts, read 6,088,552 times
Reputation: 3168
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Euro leaning slightly in favor for a warm second half of March


https://x.com/commoditywx/status/176...979283449?s=20
I wonder when we'll get a below average month again. Even using the 2003-2024 baseline it's been mostly warm since September.

2022
-7.2F Jan
-0.5F Feb
0.5F Mar
-1.8F Apr
+2.9F May
-1.3F Jun
-0.5F Jul
+2.2F Aug
+0.7F Sep
-0.7F Oct
+1.6F Nov
+0.4F Dec
2023
+7.4F Jan
+5.4F Feb

-0.4F Mar
+2.7F Apr
+1.1F May
-0.2F Jun
-0.5F Jul
-2.5F Aug
+1.4F Sep
+2.7F Oct
-1.1F Nov
+7.4F Dec
2024
+4.9F Jan
+9.8F Feb (approx)


The last time we had a far colder than average month was Jan 2022, meanwhile, we've just had 3 far above average months in a row. And only one month (Aug 2023) that was at least 2F below average since Jan 2022, compared to nine that were at least 2F above average. March is looking like it will be ~4F above average too, and if those Euro projections turn out to be correct, that would be more like 5-9F above average.
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Old 02-29-2024, 08:15 AM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,889 posts, read 6,088,552 times
Reputation: 3168
The Weather Network predicting a warm and dry spring here.

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Old 02-29-2024, 08:26 AM
 
29,505 posts, read 19,602,720 times
Reputation: 4527
next two weeks off of this morning's GEFS






Latest longer range from the Euro showing a colder back end of March and start of April







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Old 02-29-2024, 10:55 AM
 
29,505 posts, read 19,602,720 times
Reputation: 4527
Quote:
Originally Posted by memph View Post
I wonder when we'll get a below average month again. Even using the 2003-2024 baseline it's been mostly warm since September.

2022
-7.2F Jan
-0.5F Feb
0.5F Mar
-1.8F Apr
+2.9F May
-1.3F Jun
-0.5F Jul
+2.2F Aug
+0.7F Sep
-0.7F Oct
+1.6F Nov
+0.4F Dec
2023
+7.4F Jan
+5.4F Feb

-0.4F Mar
+2.7F Apr
+1.1F May
-0.2F Jun
-0.5F Jul
-2.5F Aug
+1.4F Sep
+2.7F Oct
-1.1F Nov
+7.4F Dec
2024
+4.9F Jan
+9.8F Feb (approx)


The last time we had a far colder than average month was Jan 2022, meanwhile, we've just had 3 far above average months in a row. And only one month (Aug 2023) that was at least 2F below average since Jan 2022, compared to nine that were at least 2F above average. March is looking like it will be ~4F above average too, and if those Euro projections turn out to be correct, that would be more like 5-9F above average.

I can easily see a month in spring or summer being below normal here. I'm going to say April will be below normal. Then probably June-July will be close to or below average as we transition into a La Nina. Just my guess.


11 confirmed tornadoes in the Chicago area Tuesday night. Also going down as the warmest February on record beating out a record held since Feb 1882



Mild weekend. Sunday could see temps reach 75F/24C in parts of the area.

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Old 02-29-2024, 11:36 AM
 
Location: Saskatoon - Saskatchewan, Canada
826 posts, read 864,415 times
Reputation: 757
March will start pretty cold here, more wintry than 90% of this last DJF trimester. Snow and temperatures going down to -30C are expected next week.

The last few days of February were very cold, with a low of -32C on Tuesday. But anyway it was one of the warmest Februaries ever recorded, if not the warmest. Maybe these last cold days saved February from breaking a record.

Today the temperature is rising quickly and may go to the positive area, with chances of a little rain, but the cold will be coming back until tomorrow.

Currently, 12:00 and -7.3C
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Old 02-29-2024, 02:41 PM
 
Location: Centre Wellington, ON
5,889 posts, read 6,088,552 times
Reputation: 3168
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
I can easily see a month in spring or summer being below normal here. I'm going to say April will be below normal. Then probably June-July will be close to or below average as we transition into a La Nina. Just my guess.


11 confirmed tornadoes in the Chicago area Tuesday night. Also going down as the warmest February on record beating out a record held since Feb 1882



Mild weekend. Sunday could see temps reach 75F/24C in parts of the area.
I think it was both the warmest February and warmest DJF on record since the 1880s here, but I don't have time to go through all the different stations manually atm (there's been a bunch of different stations going in and out of operation in Elora and Fergus since the 1880s, and some periods where only Guelph had a station in operation).
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Old 03-01-2024, 04:59 AM
 
29,505 posts, read 19,602,720 times
Reputation: 4527
No changes to the forecast. Mild here probably beyond mid March









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Old 03-01-2024, 07:44 AM
 
217 posts, read 146,401 times
Reputation: 228
Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
March looks as if it will roar in like a lion

oops. ha
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Old 03-01-2024, 08:13 AM
 
29,505 posts, read 19,602,720 times
Reputation: 4527
Quote:
Originally Posted by comm08 View Post
oops. ha

Moral of the story climate models are usually garbage beyond 2 weeks out.


If you want cold air to dominate the pattern for the eastern two thirds in March you need the MJO to move into phases 8,1, and 2 but most model members are collapsing into null space which means that the pattern may continue the way it's been for a while. We'll see


Last edited by chicagogeorge; 03-01-2024 at 08:33 AM..
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