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Old 03-19-2024, 12:59 PM
 
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Region 1+2 near South America is now near neutral




CFSv2 calling for a deep La Nina by the fall. Probably overdone but we'll see.


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Old 04-11-2024, 11:38 AM
 
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Updated CPC ENSO Probability (looking at a late fall La Nina peak):
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Old 04-19-2024, 08:29 AM
 
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Here's what the individual model/agencies are showing for the progression of La Nina. The Australians are showing almost no La Nina and just ENSO neutral for the summer and early fall. The Canadian UK and American agencies are forecasting a more aggressive development of La Nina








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Old 04-19-2024, 09:15 PM
 
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Old 04-20-2024, 06:12 AM
 
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5 years of this crap again.
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Old 05-06-2024, 06:11 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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A cold La Niña is now rising in the Pacific Ocean, with the new phase bringing different Weather patterns for 2024/2025

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-r...ada-europe-fa/

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Old 05-06-2024, 04:49 PM
 
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Gonna be another record dry year for my area.
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Old 05-07-2024, 10:31 AM
 
Location: New York Area
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PhiEaglesfan712 View Post
A lot of models are already flashing their signals for a transition to a significant la nina to develop later in the year. Many of the strongest la ninas, like 1973-74 and 1988-89, have followed strong or super el nino seasons. Our most recent strong la nina, in 2010-11, also followed a strong el nino.

Do you think we will get a historic strong la nina (like 1973-74 and 1988-89) or will it just be another moderate la nina (like the 3 recent seasons 2020-21, 2021-22, and 2022-23)?
I am guessing a strong La Niña like 2010. Unless that was historic as well.
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Old 05-07-2024, 05:19 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jbgusa View Post
I am guessing a strong La Niña like 2010. Unless that was historic as well.
The RONI supports 2010 as the best fit year.

NDJ 2009 1.57 DJF 2010 1.45 JFM 2010 1.09 FMA 2010 0.62
OND 2023 1.49 NDJ 2023 1.47 DJF 2024 1.21 JFM 2024 0.85 FMA 2024 0.48

We got down to -1.7 that year on the RONI, which is similar to the ONI. Those aren't historic numbers like 73-74 and 88-89, but similar in strength to the 2 strong la nina events that preceded it (1998-2000 and 2007-08).
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Old 05-07-2024, 05:44 PM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
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Hopefully not a strong La Nina as every single winter in the south-central US seems to be a blowtorch with far above average temperatures with either La Nina or El Nino.
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