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Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 8:53pm
Good Friday (Evening): The high pressure system will be over the Tasman Sea as a new high moves into the Great Australian Bight. A weak cold front is expected to move through the Bass Strait area tonight. Isolated thunderstorms over eastern areas of the state will continue there movements tonight, gradually contracting northeast. Small chance for severe thunderstorms.
Easter Saturday: The high pressure systems will amalgamate over southeastern Australia and the Tasman sea. Moisture levels are expected to increase across the state and a low pressure trough is expected to be just sitting over northern and eastern parts of Victoria. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected generally on and north of the ranges, however there is a smaller chance for a thunderstorm to develop across the southern districts, mostly from a seabreeze convergence line. There is a small to medium chance for severe thunderstorms, with flash flooding and large hailstones being the biggest risk.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Easter Sunday: The high pressure system will be in the Tasman Sea. A low pressure trough is likely to move over eastern Victoria interacting with moisture there. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible over the eastern parts. Small chance for severe thunderstorms.
Easter Monday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea. Its likely that the trough will remain over parts of eastern Victoria whilst another trough moves into the southwest later in the day. Isolated thunderstorms are a small possibility across the southwest later. No severe thunderstorms.
Tuesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain near New Zealand. A trough will be over the state as a cold front approaches western Victoria through the Great Australian Bight. Isolated thunderstorms should be possible, mostly across the west. No severe thunderstorms.
Wednesday: A new high pressure system will develop south of Western Australia. Models begin to diverge on Wednesday. The most likely scenario at this stage is for the cold front to move over Victoria and for a low pressure system to develop over the southwest coast. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over all areas thanks to both systems. No severe thunderstorms at this stage.
Thursday: The high pressure system should be extending over western parts of the Great Australian Bight. Models continue to diverge. The most likely scenario is for the low on the southwest coast to slowly move to south of Gippsland. Isolated thunderstorms are still considered a possibility over southern parts. No severe thunderstorms.
Friday: Its likely the high pressure system will move over the southeastern Australia inland. No thunderstorms.
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain over the southeastern inland. No thunderstorms.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 7:06pm
Easter Saturday (Evening): Scattered thunderstorms continued yesterday afternoon through eastern parts and has again redeveloped across the eastern areas this afternoon and evening. The Bureau of Meteorology have issued a severe thunderstorm warning. The high pressure system that amalgamated over southeastern Australia today will remain in the Tasman sea. The trough will continue its eastward movement out of the state tonight. Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely to continue this evening over the eastern districts with large hail and flash flooding being the biggest risks. Damaging wind gusts are possible also, but to a lesser extent.
Easter Sunday: The high pressure system will be in the Tasman Sea. The low pressure trough should be east of the state, so thunderstorms are no longer forecast. There is a small chance however that enough dynamic heating over the ranges may produce some mature convection that may form into a weak thunderstorm cell.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Easter Monday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms expected.
Tuesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain near New Zealand. The trough in New South Wales will shift back down into northeast Victoria, and this is where isolated thunderstorms are possible. There is a small chance for severe thunderstorms - large hailstones and flash flooding the biggest risk.
Wednesday: A new high pressure system will develop south of Western Australia. Models have now firmly agreed on a scenario for Wednesday. The cold front will move across the state from the west during the morning to reach the east during the afternoon - the front will be extended from a parent low southwest of Tasmania. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within a rain band expected, but no severe thunderstorms are expected.
Thursday: The high pressure system should be extending over western parts of the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms are expected.
Friday: The high pressure system will move over the southeastern Australia inland. No thunderstorms.
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain over the southeastern inland. No thunderstorms.
Sunday: The high pressure system is likely to shift from the inland area to the Great Australian Bight, extending over Victoria. No thunderstorms.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 7:35pm
Easter Sunday (evening): The high pressure system will be in the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms.
Easter Monday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms expected.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Tuesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain near New Zealand. The trough in New South Wales will shift back down into northeast Victoria, and this is where isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. There is a small chance for severe thunderstorms - large hailstones and flash flooding the biggest risk.
Wednesday: A new high pressure system will develop south of Western Australia. Models have now firmly agreed on a scenario for Wednesday. An active and vigerous cold front will move across the state from the west during the morning to reach the east during the afternoon - the front will be extended from a parent low south of Tasmania. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead and with the cold front, and then also later in the day across the southwest in a cold southwest aistream. No severe thunderstorms expected.
Thursday: The high pressure system south of Western Australia will extend over South Australia. A second cold front, weaker, is likely to clip southern Victoria during the day and pro-long a cold southwest airstream, bringing the slight chance for isolated cold-cored thunderstorms near the coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Friday: The high pressure system will amalgamate over the Great Australian Bight and Australian inland. A cold southwest aistream is still likely, with isolated cold-cored thunderstorms are slight risk at first along the Gippsland coast. No severe thunderstorms.
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain over the southeastern inland. No thunderstorms.
Sunday: The high pressure system is likely to remain over the southeastern inland. No thunderstorms.
Monday: The high pressure system is likely to slowly shift over the southeastern parts of Australia. No thunderstorms.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 11:53am
Easter Monday (afternoon): The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms expected in Victoria, however some mid-level development is possible over the northeast border area tonight.
Tuesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain near New Zealand. The trough in New South Wales will shift back down into northeast Victoria, and this is where isolated thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon. There is a small chance for severe thunderstorms - large hailstones and flash flooding the biggest risk.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Wednesday: A new high pressure system will develop south of Western Australia. Models have now firmly agreed on a scenario for Wednesday. An active and vigerous cold front will move across the state from the west during the morning to reach the east during the afternoon - the front will be extended from a parent low south of Tasmania. Isolated thunderstorms are possible ahead and with the cold front, and then also later in the day across the southwest in a cold southwest aistream. No severe thunderstorms expected.
Thursday: The high pressure system south of Western Australia will extend over South Australia. A second cold front, weaker, is likely to clip southern Victoria during the day and pro-long a cold southwest airstream, bringing the slight chance for isolated cold-cored thunderstorms near the coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Friday: The high pressure system will amalgamate over the Great Australian Bight and Australian inland. A cold southwest aistream is still likely, with isolated cold-cored thunderstorms are slight risk at first along the Gippsland coast. No severe thunderstorms.
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain over the southeastern inland. No thunderstorms.
Sunday: The high pressure system is likely to remain over the southeastern inland. No thunderstorms.
Monday: The high pressure system is likely to slowly shift over the southeastern parts of Australia. No thunderstorms.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 11:19am
Thursday: The high pressure system south of Western Australia will extend over South Australia. A second cold front, weaker, is likely to clip southern Victoria during the day and pro-long a cold southwest airstream, bringing the slight chance for isolated cold-cored thunderstorms near the coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Friday: The high pressure system will amalgamate over the Great Australian Bight and Australian inland. A cold southwest aistream is still likely. No thunderstorms expected.
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain over the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms.
Sunday: The high pressure system is likely to move south of Tasmania. No thunderstorms.
Monday: The high pressure system will move southeast of Tasmania. No thunderstorms.
Tuesday: The high pressure system will remain east of Tasmania extending into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms.
Wednesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. Computer models begin to agree on some type of strong system developing in the Great Australian Bight. Some models indicate a strong front followed by a low pressure system, others just indicate a low, but I will continue to watch this closely. Given that a high pressure ridge will be firmly placed over Victoria, no thunderstorms are expected at this stage.
Thursday: The high pressure system will move near New Zealand. The strong front or/and low is likely to move into western Victoria later in the day. Timing is still difficult to pin-point. Thunderstorms would be possible. Please watch this day.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 6:30pm
Thursday Evening: The high pressure system south of Western Australia will extend over South Australia. A second cold front will move through Bass Strait tonight. There is a slight risk for isolated cold-cored thunderstorms near the coastline and out to sea. No severe activity.
Friday: The high pressure system will amalgamate over the Great Australian Bight and Australian inland. A cold southwest aistream is still likely. No thunderstorms expected.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain over the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms.
Sunday: The high pressure system is likely to remain over eastern parts of the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms.
Monday: The high pressure system will be south to southeast of Tasmania. No thunderstorms.
Tuesday: The high pressure system will remain east of Tasmania extending into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms.
Wednesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain east of Tasmania, extending into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected.
Thursday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea. Computer model guidence diverges on Thursday, but the most likely scenario is for a cold front to reach western Victoria overnight. Isolated thunderstorms would be possible. No severe activity.
Friday: High pressure is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. The cold front should move over western districts during the morning and then reach the east later in the day. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with the front. No severe activity.
NOTE: BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PROVIDING DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SOME SORT OF SOUTHWEST CHANGE WILL HAPPEN. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR UPDATES.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 6:12pm
Friday Evening: The high pressure system will amalgamate over the Great Australian Bight and Australian inland. No thunderstorms expected.
Saturday: The high pressure system will remain over the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Sunday: The high pressure system is likely to remain over eastern parts of the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms.
Monday: The high pressure system will be south to southeast of Tasmania. No thunderstorms.
Tuesday: The high pressure system will remain east of Tasmania extending into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms.
Wednesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain east of Tasmania, extending into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected.
Thursday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea. Computer model guidence diverges on Thursday, but the most likely scenario is for a cold front to approach western. No thunderstorms.
Friday: High pressure is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. The cold front should move over western districts during the morning and then reach the east later in the day. There is also the chance for a low pressure system to develop. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with the front. No severe activity.
Saturday: A new high pressure system will develop in the Great Australian Bight. Both the cold front and possible low should be gone from the vicinity of Victoria. No thunderstorms.
NOTE: BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE PROVIDING DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SOME SORT OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAPPEN. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR UPDATES.
Victoria, Australia
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
Updated at: 12:36pm
Sunday afternoon: The high pressure system is likely to remain over eastern parts of the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms.
Monday: The high pressure system will be south to southeast of Tasmania. No thunderstorms.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK
Tuesday: The high pressure system will remain east of Tasmania extending into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms.
Wednesday: The high pressure system is likely to remain east of Tasmania, extending into the Tasman Sea. No thunderstorms are expected.
Thursday: The high pressure system will remain in the Tasman Sea. Computer model guidence diverges on Thursday, but the most likely scenario is for a cold front to approach western parts of the state. There is the risk for isolated thunderstorms in the far west overnight. No severe storms.
Friday: High pressure is likely to remain in the Tasman Sea. The cold front should move over western districts during the early morning and then reach the east later in the day. There is also the chance for a low pressure system to develop. Isolated thunderstorms are possible with the front. No severe activity.
Saturday: A new high pressure system will develop near Western Australia. The front should be out of Victoria, however a low pressure system that may be near the state, should cause a wrap-around affect with rain. Isolated cold-cored thunderstorms are possible in the south. No severe thunderstorms.
Sunday: High pressure should move into the Great Australian Bight. No thunderstorms over Victoria.
NOTE: THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE PROVIDING DIFFICULT TO PREDICT WITH SEVERAL SCENARIOS POSSIBLE, HOWEVER IT IS BECOMING MORE LIKELY THAT SOME SORT OF STRONG COLD FRONT WILL HAPPEN. PLEASE CONTINUE TO WATCH FOR UPDATES.
NEXT UPDATE: Sunday, 5:00pm-7:00pm
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