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I have been looking at the GFS computer models lately and it would appear that much of the eastern US will have temperatures warmer than average for most of September. A large positive height anomaly center in Canada will impact areas of the northern tier and will be tough to dislodge. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation look to stay in positive territory, so that also implies a warmer pattern. I am also seeing more El Nino influences in the jet stream pattern out in the Pacific. It will be interesting to see how late the first freeze will come to most areas this fall.
I have been looking at the GFS computer models lately and it would appear that much of the eastern US will have temperatures warmer than average for most of September. A large positive height anomaly center in Canada will impact areas of the northern tier and will be tough to dislodge. The North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation look to stay in positive territory, so that also implies a warmer pattern. I am also seeing more El Nino influences in the jet stream pattern out in the Pacific. It will be interesting to see how late the first freeze will come to most areas this fall.
I think you are probably right...this is good news for agriculture as we try to make up for a pathetic June/July.
The only issue for warmth is along the coast. It looks like a series of surface highs may develop...and keep the mean winds along the coast easterly. This will help keep temps down. But inland...it does look like Sept could average 2-4 deg above normal.
Sounds good to me! A Canadian high has been giving us our great weather that we've had for awhile now, I think. However, things will change towards the end of this week and for the coming weekend
Long term – weather will always average itself out.
I was telling people this back in early July…when they were moaning and groaning about how the first two months of summer where cooler than normal in the Central/Eastern USA (June and 2/3 of July). Thanks to the cartoonish Weather Channel – there was a great amount of hype about the “cool summer in the Eastern USA”. However, right around July 20th or so…temps across much of the Eastern USA starting running above normal. August ended up being from 1 to 3 F WARMER than average across the metro East Coast from NYC/Connecticut south to Virginia/DC.
The warmer than average Atlantic Ocean temps…along with a strong mid ocean Bermuda High…will likely keep the Jet stream north and at least early fall (October) above normal across the Midwest/Eastern USA. I would think that from around 40 latitude (NYC/Indianapolis/Omaha) southward…the first frost is a solid two months away.
Of course, we will never see the same “weather spin” on the Weather Channel about a warmer than normal August and a likely mild fall coming in the East …that angle is not as marketable (lol).
Long term – weather will always average itself out.
I was telling people this back in early July…when they were moaning and groaning about how the first two months of summer where cooler than normal in the Central/Eastern USA (June and 2/3 of July). Thanks to the cartoonish Weather Channel – there was a great amount of hype about the “cool summer in the Eastern USA”. However, right around July 20th or so…temps across much of the Eastern USA starting running above normal. August ended up being from 1 to 3 F WARMER than average across the metro East Coast from NYC/Connecticut south to Virginia/DC.
The warmer than average Atlantic Ocean temps…along with a strong mid ocean Bermuda High…will likely keep the Jet stream north and at least early fall (October) above normal across the Midwest/Eastern USA. I would think that from around 40 latitude (NYC/Indianapolis/Omaha) southward…the first frost is a solid two months away.
Of course, we will never see the same “weather spin” on the Weather Channel about a warmer than normal August and a likely mild fall coming in the East …that angle is not as marketable (lol).
The coolest it has been, so far, north of my area have been Saranac Lake, NY (33F) and Fryeburg, ME (34F). This is not unusual for these areas to have lows in the 30s starting in August, though.
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