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Have you ever paid attention to your 10 day forecast? The first three days are quite accurate, but the forecast for the further range gets changed repeatedly.
The National Blather Service is pretty pathetic on their long range predictions ... and they're not all that keen about short term predictions (especially concerning precipitation). I should point out, however, that I live in a city that seems to be world famous for the never ending sunshine ... and the NWS seems to always be correct when their long range forecast is for more of the same:
SUNNY & WARM
SUNNY & WARM
SUNNY & WARM
SUNNY & WARM
SUNNY & WARM
SUNNY & WARM
SUNNY & WARM
SUNNY & WARM
Quote:
Originally Posted by koyaanisqatsi1
As much as I hate El Nino, I do believe it occurs. Extreme heat/drought in August/September and this month says it all. October however for Sydney (and over a wide part of Australia especially in terms of cooler temperatures) happened to be wetter, cloudier and cooler which totally went against the normally expected trend of drier, warmer and sunnier weather.
El Nino is very bad and damaging for Australia - hotter and drier weather leading to more frequent droughts/heatwaves/bushfires. I'd much prefer the La Nina pattern which brings often wetter and cooler conditions. However this month has seen the southern half of WA (and til recently Sydney) escaping the heat, dealing with much cooler weather.
The El Niño/La Niña patterns affect much of the world in different ways. Here in the SW United States, El Niño usually means mild, wetter winters, and they're often followed by hotter, drier summers. La Niña usually brings below normal precipitation during the winter, and heavier thunderstorms during the summer months. The problem is that even some El Niño winters can be dry here if the Pacific jet stream steers all that wonderful moisture away from us.
That's why it's a guessing game at this point as to what El Niño will do (or won't do) in terms of precipitation. And that's why it really baffles me why the NWS makes these long range predictions that often turn out to be incorrect. Seems like an enormous waste of time & money to try to be fortune tellers when they really should be there mostly to report weather/climate stats.
I think that is key, too, some areas are just so difficult to predict even day to day with mountains, valleys and lakes playing major roles.
You take a place like Chicago, where official reporting is done at O'Hare, forecast is totally different than right downtown or the NE suburbs along the lake or Wisconsin line.
Many times around here, forecasters are pulling info in from several models and none of them are even close to each other!
Aha, now that's the location to be a meteorologist in~Phx. When I have listened to Fla.'s forecast, I always figured it'd be a slack job there, too. There are a couple people here who are going into meteorology so they may want to consider an easy location. Daninegf (East Grand Forks) has a tougher job.
It's not only their forecasts~it's their records that amaze me. I can see the temp on TWC and it may say "60". The following day I can go to their site and they'll say that 55 was our high the previous day. OR I can read something in the paper that says we broke a record high or record low and that it was "zero" in 1930. THEN I can go to weather.com and it will say our record low was 10 in 1950.
It happens often and it just boggles my mind. It tells me that since they can't keep the past accurate, I shouldn't make bets on their forecasts.
Aha, now that's the location to be a meteorologist in~Phx.
Tell me about it! For many years when I was younger, I actually considered majoring in meteorology, and envisioned working at a TV station as a weather man. In a large media market like Phoenix, a TV weather person can possibly make $80K or more per year just for standing in front of the camera for five minutes, smiling, and saying: "SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS!" What a cushy job that would be!
Well, actually, the forecast does change depending on what time of the year it is. From June through September, they would have to adjust it a little ... from "SUNNY & WARM" to "SUNNY & HOT".
()
Interesting thread. So, does anyone know what El Nino does to California?
Typically, it brings mild temperatures and VERY wet conditions during the winter months to mostly central & southern CA. While northern CA usually sees far more precipitation during an average winter, El Niño has a way of steering much of the moisture southward. That is because a strong subtropical jet stream often takes over, driving many storm systems toward the southern half of the state.
El Niño is still unpredictable, however. That's why it's not always correct for the NWS to automatically predict a wet winter for California & the SW. I already gave the example of the last El Niño, which was the winter of 2006-2007: the NWS made their usual pre El Niño prediction of above normal precipitation for California & the SW ... however, that winter actually turned out to be quite dry!
Tell me about it! For many years when I was younger, I actually considered majoring in meteorology, and envisioned working at a TV station as a weather man. In a large media market like Phoenix, a TV weather person can possibly make $80K or more per year just for standing in front of the camera for five minutes, smiling, and saying: "SUNNY AND WARM FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS!" What a cushy job that would be!
Well, actually, the forecast does change depending on what time of the year it is. From June through September, they would have to adjust it a little ... from "SUNNY & WARM" to "SUNNY & HOT".
()
I'm considering a career in Meteorology, I want to work behind the scenes though (I'm camera shy lol) but I'll go on screen in a heartbeat if they pay me extra lol. I want to work in an easy city (Los Angeles, Phoenix, Houston, Miami, etc.) and they're warm cities too so that's a plus (I hate Winter). I just checked the average base salary in the U.S. and its $88,197 which isn't bad at all, I bet in larger cities its even more.
^^ Lol in Miami on pretty much everyday between May 15-October 1 is pretty much the same forecast......high of 90 with a 50% chance of an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon
Even with a degree in meteorology, the odds that you will be one of the very few who appear on tv is very,very, slim.
I always thought an interesting rate in the Navy was Aerographers Mate.
( the way they described it , it sure sounded like a Navy meteorologist.)
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