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Today I decided to check out the forecasts for Christmas and the up coming week. I went to Accuweather and then cross-referenced with Weather. com. Well I was very suprised to find a disparity of 10°, Accuweather puts the temps in the 60s for daytime and 50s for night, some temps in the 40s, but Weather puts the temps in the upper 70s and nights in the upper 60s. Why such a difference? I know forecasts are never 100% accurate all the time but which forecast should I believe is right? I really hope it's the cooler of the two as I am really really sick of 80°+ temps on Christmas however I'm not going to get too hopeful as we have been at or(in most cases) above the normal temps for Oct, Nov, and Dec so far and we actually have broken several daytime high records.
Several years back, before the Weather Channel starting running all those silly programs, they used to do nothing but give forecasts with a couple of short, informational segments thrown in two or three times an hour. One of those segments pretty much debunked the "science" of meteorology...
The weather on the North American continent is largely influenced by the jetstream, a river of air that flows from west to east. (That's why New York can get Chicago's weather, but not vice-versa).
Being a river not held in place by physical riverbanks, the jetstream can take all sorts of crazy dips and turns--not a single one of which is predictable. The so-called "forecasts" issued by the Weather Bureau are nothing more than a compilation of statistics gathered since its establishment in 1869. In other words, they're spitting percentages from the past at you...not predicting what's going to happen in the future. Which, it turns out, can't be done!
And that's why there's a variance in forecasts. Nobody knows what the weather is going to be like, because nobody knows what the jetstream is going to do. To tell you the truth, I was shocked that the Weather Channel would have put a segment like that on the air. It was giving the game away!
I usually don't go with what The weather channel says. I often notice a warm bias in their forecast and pretty much every other website always has much colder temps in their forecast when we get a cold snap. And the other website are usually right from my observations...
I have often found differences in PAST temps or PAST records and their years so I don't believe that any of them are accurate on their predictions. How can they be when you can check a couple sites and they'll give you different numbers for the high temp you reached just yesterday?
Accuweather and Weather.com both have a different set of forecasters and use different guidance to put together their forecasts. Unfortunately, some forecasters rely on model guidance and do not understand the science, and with some advanced education and practice one can easily detect these biases.
Interestingly, for those who did not know, TWC's previous format included NWS only forecasts and information. Back then, TWC was much more reliable and was more focused on weather -only.
weather channel says Christmas morning should be 49°F, hi of 64°F, then get to 48°F at night.
weather underground has 40°F, 65°F, 43°F
Finally, our local forecast has 40°F, 60°F, 37°F
Now it's this:
Weather channel : 49°F,65°F,50°F (so they're sticking close to originals)
Underground: 49°F, 63°F,54°F (up 9 christmas morning, down 2 for the day, but up 11 for christmas night)
Local: 49°F,69°F,49°F (up 9 christmas morning, up 9 for the day, up 12 for christmas night)
weather channel says Christmas morning should be 49°F, hi of 64°F, then get to 48°F at night.
weather underground has 40°F, 65°F, 43°F
Finally, our local forecast has 40°F, 60°F, 37°F
Monday:
Weather channel : 49°F,65°F,50°F (so they're sticking close to originals)
Underground: 49°F, 63°F,54°F (up 9 christmas morning, down 2 for the day, but up 11 for christmas night)
Local: 49°F,69°F,49°F (up 9 christmas morning, up 9 for the day, up 12 for christmas night)
Tuesday:
Weather Channel: 46°F, 62°F, 51°F (now they've slightly cooled the morning before and Christmas day, but upped the night again)
Underground: 49°F, 65°F, 49°F (up 2 on the 25th, down 5 at night)
Local: 48°F, 65°F,48°F ( down 1 both morning and night, down 4 in day)
Sorry if this bores you, but once i start something, i must see it through.
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