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It is all relative! If people aren't used to colder temps even drops into the 30's seem brutal let alone in the teens!
Funny thing is we're having a warmer stretch but when that happens, its real damp, fog, grey skies, and then we'll say, wish it was sunny. However, in January, sunny and clear means more cold temps.
New England has been below normal this winter, but as far as extreme temps, (as Bastardi would suggest), nothing extreme.
We usually get our most snowy winters with avg to slightly above avg temps, so it would not surprise me if the stronger El Nino and slightly abv temps bring us some heavy snows, especially up your way Feb/March.
If you read the news at all or look at the temperature data the Northern Hemisphere has had a winter so far in line with what Bastardi has suggested. To say your particular area is different and that invalidates what Bastardi said is silly. Even Hansen over at GISS felt the need to issue a statement regarding the cold winter:
Obvious double standard here. Bastardi is a GW skeptic, so therefore is looked at in a much different light then someone on the opposite end of the spectrum. He is also not getting government handouts for his opinions, if people want to pay for his service they can. I am fine with that, let what is left of the free market work it out.
James Hansen, Michael Mann, etc make wildly inaccurate forecast models. Help push policies that will cost billions of dollars and they get a pass. Mann and his university got $3M in stimulus money recently to study GW. And to do what? Come up with more manipulated computer models to scare us into submission?
If you took Joe Bastardi's opinion on the cold snap and for instance decided to buy heating oil futures you would have cleaned up. Follow Hansen or Mann and you end up with a bunch of Carbon Credits???
If you read the news at all or look at the temperature data the Northern Hemisphere has had a winter so far in line with what Bastardi has suggested. To say your particular area is different and that invalidates what Bastardi said is silly. Even Hansen over at GISS felt the need to issue a statement regarding the cold winter:
Obvious double standard here. Bastardi is a GW skeptic, so therefore is looked at in a much different light then someone on the opposite end of the spectrum. He is also not getting government handouts for his opinions, if people want to pay for his service they can. I am fine with that, let what is left of the free market work it out.
James Hansen, Michael Mann, etc make wildly inaccurate forecast models. Help push policies that will cost billions of dollars and they get a pass. Mann and his university got $3M in stimulus money recently to study GW. And to do what? Come up with more manipulated computer models to scare us into submission?
If you took Joe Bastardi's opinion on the cold snap and for instance decided to buy heating oil futures you would have cleaned up. Follow Hansen or Mann and you end up with a bunch of Carbon Credits???
I didn't say that, Granitestater did.
And I am still awaiting raw data evidence that Bastardi outforecasted any public source.
Not holding breathe...
You obviously are not one of his subscribers. Even most of them are smart enuogh to see through his nonsensical outlooks and lack of forecasting ability.
And I am still awaiting raw data evidence that Bastardi outforecasted any public source.
Not holding breathe...
You obviously are not one of his subscribers. Even most of them are smart enuogh to see through his nonsensical outlooks and lack of forecasting ability.
Actually you did say this: New England has been below normal this winter, but as far as extreme temps, (as Bastardi would suggest), nothing extreme.
The only longer term forecasting that you can put Basardi's stamp on would be the his hurricane forecasts. the CPC is more general (13-17) named storms, where Bastardi is more specific (13-14) so if there are 14 storms, who was more accurate? Given that Bastardi has a smaller margin of error, he appears IMHO to be more on target over the years. I can predict 0-30 named storms for 2010, does that make me correct? I will post actual data comparison later.
I agree he tries to hit home runs. He is going to have a few more strike outs that way. Like the December forecasts. He said the energy consuming cities in the northern hemisphere were going to get nailed with cold not scene in 25 years. The NWS just said it was going to be colder than normal. Much of Europe, and parts of North American and Asia had that kind of cold. So again, who is right?
And I am still awaiting raw data evidence that Bastardi outforecasted any public source.
Not holding breathe...
You obviously are not one of his subscribers. Even most of them are smart enuogh to see through his nonsensical outlooks and lack of forecasting ability.
Northern New England has seen temperatures close to average so far this winter. Lows have been MUCH milder compared to last winter for central NH. From the data I've analyzed it appears that most of the arctic cold was confined to areas just west of the Great Lakes so far this winter. Bastardi did not get the long-range trends right for the Northeast.
Accuweather already goes too far by making predictions for specific ZIP codes out to 15 days when a number of forecast accuracy studies have shown that forecasts beyond day 8 have zero to negative skill. As far as the comparison to the 77/78 winter, I think the rest of the winter needs to play out before it can be verified. Winter has definitely been worse in the Iowa/Nebraska area, and relatively been really bad across parts of the south. The overall picture needs to be looked as opposed to the weather in a specific location.
Temperatures in NH are now running 2.5F ABOVE average for month of January so far. We have yet to see a high temperature below 15F. I would call this a very mild winter at this point.
Northern New England has seen temperatures close to average so far this winter. Lows have been MUCH milder compared to last winter for central NH. From the data I've analyzed it appears that most of the arctic cold was confined to areas just west of the Great Lakes so far this winter. Bastardi did not get the long-range trends right for the Northeast.
Where I am, January is 6.9 degrees below normal. December averaged 5.0 degrees below normal. The cold blast was the most severe in over 20 years here. The arctic cold did hit much of the Northern Hemisphere. Including a big chunk of the the North America, Europe and Asia. We had a cold snap not seen in over 20 years over a vast area of the Northern Hemisphere.
Again, those forecasting runaway GW get a pass with the decade long flat temperatures, but a GW skeptic gets held to a higher standard. Very interesting.
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If people aren't used to colder temps even drops into the 30's seem brutal let alone in the teens!
