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Old 01-09-2010, 10:55 AM
 
118 posts, read 255,348 times
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Recently I read an article on the Accuweather website, citing the opinions and theories of one of the chief meteorologists there, Joe Bastardi, concerning this winter. He stated that this winter "may" be as bad as the winter of 77-78. Now, I don't remember that winter....because it was the year I was born. I've always heard about how terrible it was though. My parents cringe when they talk about it, and I bet a lot of other people their age do as well.

Is it a stretch to make a claim like that? I mean, seriously. Can it really get that bad? That's kind of a hefty prediction, if you know what I mean.
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Old 01-09-2010, 11:01 AM
 
Location: Two Rivers, Wisconsin
12,380 posts, read 12,295,883 times
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The winter of 77-78 was brutal in the midwest, I've never seen so much snow and then the brutal cold. So far snow totals don't compete where I am but maybe this far reaching, arctic blast going on for days does.

Quite a few on here are good at searching out records so maybe they can lend some insight. I think Accuweather goes a little over the top sometimes.
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Old 01-09-2010, 03:01 PM
 
Location: Cary, North Carolina
42 posts, read 206,781 times
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I doubt a winter like that will ever happen for decades to come. 1997 was so cold that flurries were reported in Miami. The Great Buffalo Blizzard brought up to 5 feet of lake effect snow into the Great Lakes Region. The already cold air from El Nino fused with massive arctic air masses to create unspeakable record cold.
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Old 01-11-2010, 01:14 AM
 
Location: NH
557 posts, read 1,226,624 times
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Joe Bastardis thoughts are built upon ill-concieved analogs ( always using the most exciting, well known cases) to promote users subscribing to accuweather content. His histrionics are outrageous and downright dangerous at times, not to mention knocking the NWS, HPC, NHC at the drop of a dime.

1977-1978 WAS perhaps during the fall a SOMEWHAT viable analog, however this el-nino is definitly stretching past the '78 levels, which kicks that idea to the curb. I'm sure Bastardi will continue to run with it if it gets more paying accumembers and web site hits.
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Old 01-11-2010, 06:57 PM
 
458 posts, read 709,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post
Joe Bastardis thoughts are built upon ill-concieved analogs ( always using the most exciting, well known cases) to promote users subscribing to accuweather content. His histrionics are outrageous and downright dangerous at times, not to mention knocking the NWS, HPC, NHC at the drop of a dime.

1977-1978 WAS perhaps during the fall a SOMEWHAT viable analog, however this el-nino is definitly stretching past the '78 levels, which kicks that idea to the curb. I'm sure Bastardi will continue to run with it if it gets more paying accumembers and web site hits.
Ill conceived analogs, self promotion, outrageous and dangerous at times, knocking others who they do not agree with. Sounds more like Al Gore and the CRU gang.

Joe Bastardi has a right to charge for his services just like Al Gore does. Back on December 30th, Joe accurately predicted the first two weeks of January cold snap. The CRU unit predicted in 2000 that snow would be a thing of the past in England within a few years. Al Gore predicted runaway heating, we have a decade of steady to falling global temperatures.

Joe knows what he is doing. If corporate users want to pay for his services, perhaps they know what they are doing. I am glad he is criticizing taxpayer funded organizations like the NWS and NHC. They do a poor job for what they are paid for, someone needs to point this out.
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Old 01-12-2010, 02:41 AM
 
Location: NH
557 posts, read 1,226,624 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
Ill conceived analogs, self promotion, outrageous and dangerous at times, knocking others who they do not agree with. Sounds more like Al Gore and the CRU gang.

Joe Bastardi has a right to charge for his services just like Al Gore does. Back on December 30th, Joe accurately predicted the first two weeks of January cold snap. The CRU unit predicted in 2000 that snow would be a thing of the past in England within a few years. Al Gore predicted runaway heating, we have a decade of steady to falling global temperatures.

Joe knows what he is doing. If corporate users want to pay for his services, perhaps they know what they are doing. I am glad he is criticizing taxpayer funded organizations like the NWS and NHC. They do a poor job for what they are paid for, someone needs to point this out.
If you feel this way, you do not know what you are talking about. However, you are entitled to your opinion, so be it.
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Old 01-12-2010, 04:43 AM
 
Location: Ohio
2,178 posts, read 8,417,667 times
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The winter of 77/78 was the coldest on record in NE Ohio. It also had what is still talked about as the white hurricane. Seventy mph winds with much snow. Had much snow alll winter.
I remember it well. I worked as a mechanic for a city bus transit company. The day the " white hurricane" hit I worked for 18 straight hours. Most of it in the company tow truck winching buses out of snow drifts or just dragging them back to the garage when the cold caused breakdowns. And digging a tunnel in the snow under buses just to get under it to hook up the tow chains. That was the only time in the 30 yrs I worked there the the transit company shut down service because even buses couldn't move.
I have never been so cold before or since.
Probably the only other winter in my lifetime to compare to that was the Thanksgiving storm in 1950. I was only 3 yrs old then but my Mom has pictures of our car having snow piled up to the windows and that wasn't in a drift.
Mr. Bastardi may have had reasons to think this winter could be that bad. I've heard other forecasters say Jan and Feb could be the coldest on record. It's been cold in Jan and the last part of Dec but has a long way to to go to match 77/78. And the long range forecast for next 2 weeks have moderate snowfall and back up to normal temps. Maybe he just wants to be dramatic to attract ratings.
I retired from that bus company in 2003 with 30 yrs service. The winter of 77/78 came close to preventing that from happening. It came close to making me look for another line of work. I was the guy that operated the wrecker and went on most of the road calls.
But it was nice in the summer to get out of the shop and check out all the girls in mini skirts. LOL
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Old 01-12-2010, 06:10 AM
 
458 posts, read 709,146 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post
If you feel this way, you do not know what you are talking about. However, you are entitled to your opinion, so be it.
Facts, not opinions. Based on what has already been said and published. You don't have to agree but you should try opening your eyes and mind.
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Old 01-14-2010, 03:10 AM
 
Location: NH
557 posts, read 1,226,624 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Winkelman View Post
Facts, not opinions. Based on what has already been said and published. You don't have to agree but you should try opening your eyes and mind.
Ok, do you mind showing me these facts? Such as the NWS and NHC doing a poor job? Where are the verification numbers as compared to Bastardis?

As far as that loon Al Gore and his hypesters, they are no better nor worse than Joe Bastardi. Joe does the same thing in essence, as Gore - and that is FACT - harping ridiculous analogs that have zero corrolation to any global indicies to promote a forecast that is for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY necessary to attract attention. Al Gore is the same - a ridiculous sham that will say or do anything for attention.

So please, bring the verification numbers - NHC, NWS versus Bastardi. I want a large sample size too, not some flash in the pan lucky call by Bastardi. If you want to bring facts BRING FACTS. Otherwise you are just running on opinion, which is FINE like I said, but say so.

The NWS and NHC, nevermind the HPC and etc are by far more experienced, more educated and more valuable than Joe Bastardi.

And P.S. - calling a "cold snap on Dec. 30th for the first 2 weeks of January " If you worked in the met field you would know that these days with teleconnector knowledge and ensemble forecasting a 5 year old can do this.
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Old 01-14-2010, 07:05 AM
 
458 posts, read 709,146 times
Reputation: 156
Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post
Ok, do you mind showing me these facts? Such as the NWS and NHC doing a poor job? Where are the verification numbers as compared to Bastardis?
I could list numerous ones, but here is two:

www.forecastwatch.com/static/ResponseToAkronBeaconJournal.pdf

Press Release - Joe Bastardi's AccuWeather.com Hurricane Forecast Most Accurate for 2007

forecastwatch.com IMHO is the best source for the accuracy of NWS vs. private companies like Joe over at accuweather. You have to go to their website and parse their information. Their mission is to help private forecasting companies be more accurate than the NWS and they succeed at it.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post

As far as that loon Al Gore and his hypesters, they are no better nor worse than Joe Bastardi. Joe does the same thing in essence, as Gore - and that is FACT - harping ridiculous analogs that have zero corrolation to any global indicies to promote a forecast that is for ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY necessary to attract attention. Al Gore is the same - a ridiculous sham that will say or do anything for attention.
Joe is a Meteorologist, Al Gore is an ex-VP. Yet both make a living talking about weather and climate. Accuweather sells a product to corporate users, like shipping companies who need to know hurricane paths. Al Gore runs around scaring people for a speaking fee. And profits by investing in industries that would benefit from his fear mongering. Not at all the same.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post

So please, bring the verification numbers - NHC, NWS versus Bastardi. I want a large sample size too, not some flash in the pan lucky call by Bastardi. If you want to bring facts BRING FACTS. Otherwise you are just running on opinion, which is FINE like I said, but say so.
Forecastwatch.com has numerous studies on its website showing the accuracy of the NWS compared to private companies. And if you actually spend a little time understanding what Joe has to say about the NWS's techniques and how his approach differs might just learn something. Again, the above links are a start.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post

The NWS and NHC, nevermind the HPC and etc are by far more experienced, more educated and more valuable than Joe Bastardi.
Yes, the government is always better than private industry and capitalism, that's the liberal mantra, right?
Private industry will always trump governmental bureaucratic organizations. Why is that? Accuweather, Piers Corbin, etc have to be accurate or no one will pay for their service. The NWS, NHC, etc do not. The will get funding from the feds regardless. Everybody chuckles when the governments yearly hurricane predictions come out. I live on the gulf coast so I do pay attention to this. Why even try to defend them? Companies like Forecastwatch.com make a living providing a service to private companies like The Weather Channel and Accuweather so they can continue to do a better job than their government counterparts. Read this:

http://forecastwatch.com/services/

Quote:
Originally Posted by BriInNH View Post
And P.S. - calling a "cold snap on Dec. 30th for the first 2 weeks of January " If you worked in the met field you would know that these days with teleconnector knowledge and ensemble forecasting a 5 year old can do this.
Joe did not simply predict "A cold snap for January." Come on. He nailed it. You can see also the CPC statement, which is vague at best.

Major northern hemisphere cold snap coming « Watts Up With That?

One last thing. It is widely accepted in the past 10-12 years global temperatures have not increased, and may have declined a bit. You can disagree on this, but that is what the numbers show. Even the NWS predicts it may be 20 or 30 more years before temps begin rebounding. Some even predict much global cooling. To me its just a dangerous to predict dire cooling as dire warming. So tell me, if none of the computer models or the scientists behind them promoting the doom and gloom saw this coming, why should anyone believe what they have to say for the rest of this century?

Last edited by Winkelman; 01-14-2010 at 07:24 AM..
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