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I certainly agree that democrat party affiliation is not a monolithic viewpoint in West Virginia, but I am not so certain that republicans have changed. I think a lot of that has to do with the drastic erosion of the coal industry in West Virginia brought on by democrat controlled regulation via the EPA. As a result, the rank and file no longer have a nexus to provide them with marching orders and they have been let loose to vote as they feel and not as instructed.
Regardless, a West Virginia democrat would look a like a republican in much more liberal states like New York, Illinois or California. Senator Joe Manchin makes his life under the guise of being a conservative democrat but I think he would switch party affiliation if he had any concern his re-election prospect depended on it. Party affiliation is personal for many West Virginians that could never see themselves tied to another party but they certainly have no qualms about voting for someone from the other party.
Wheeling is a victim of the democrat/liberal agenda of crushing the coal industry. Along with that effort, the EPA regulation ideology has taken out the US steel industry as well. The northern panhandle had no chance.
I generally decry single issue voters as not being very balanced individuals but when that single issue is tied to the survival of your family I am not sure anyone could blame an out of work miner or steel producer for voting against democrats in West Virginia or any state. It is no secret that all of those jobs were lost as a direct result of regulations by the EPA directed by the modern democrat/liberal ideology.
I agree with everything you said here, but will add that the cheap labor agreements negotiated by the Clinton administration were the final nail in the coffin for Ohio Valley industry from Pittsburgh to Moundsville. There are dozens of firms that closed following those agreements in addition to heavy industry steel plants, and tens of thousands of American workers living in those areas lost their jobs. Americans simply can not compete with $8 or less per day labor.
I agree with everything you said here, but will add that the cheap labor agreements negotiated by the Clinton administration were the final nail in the coffin for Ohio Valley industry from Pittsburgh to Moundsville. There are dozens of firms that closed following those agreements in addition to heavy industry steel plants, and tens of thousands of American workers living in those areas lost their jobs. Americans simply can not compete with $8 or less per day labor.
CTM, you are so accurate with these observations and like you, I think there is plenty of blame to go around. The $8.00 per hour rate for workers at formerly American factories in Mexico is correct, but that amount is in Mexican purchasing power equivalency. The exchange rate and PPP fluctuates drastically and what is officially $8.00 per hour for them might raise to $10.00 when the peso is in good standing with the USD or like it is now when it has eroded 30% and the trend shows it will continue to drop until it loses about 80% of last years high. That will effectively bring the pay rate down to $2.00 but in Mexico it will still be rated as good pay because they make about 150 pesos per hour.
Regardless of how it is spun, these agreements only benefit the wealthy. They make things cheaper, and generally of poorer quality with foreign labor, but sell them to our embattled middle class for the same money pocketing the difference.
The Wall Street article does not seem to have much methodology except the number of votes as a percentage that voted for Romney. I am not sure that is a good metric to use at least to answer the OPs questions. Here is the Wall Street article except concerning West Virginia:
48. West Virginia
> Reddest county: Upshur County
All five of West Virginia’s electoral votes went to Romney in 2012. Only about a quarter of voters in Upshur County cast their ballot for Obama, while Romney won 71.7% of the 2012 votes cast in West Virginia’s reddest county. Like many other conservative counties, Upshur is predominantly white. Nearly 97% of the county’s population identifies solely as white. In each of the last five congressional elections, county voters have sent a Republican representative to Washington.
The Wall Street article does not seem to have much methodology except the number of votes as a percentage that voted for Romney. I am not sure that is a good metric to use at least to answer the OPs questions. Here is the Wall Street article except concerning West Virginia:
48. West Virginia
> Reddest county: Upshur County
All five of West Virginia’s electoral votes went to Romney in 2012. Only about a quarter of voters in Upshur County cast their ballot for Obama, while Romney won 71.7% of the 2012 votes cast in West Virginia’s reddest county. Like many other conservative counties, Upshur is predominantly white. Nearly 97% of the county’s population identifies solely as white. In each of the last five congressional elections, county voters have sent a Republican representative to Washington.
Party performance, not party registration, is the metric most political analysts use to rate a county's GOP/DEM tilt. Using %Romney vote to measure party performance is a good choice if you are trying to measure where a county is compared to the United States as a whole.
If I were looking at the county ( I moonlight as a political analyst) I would use state and local races to measure party performance since those are better starting points to create a vote model for every race save Presidential ones. It isn't odd for a county to have a strong partisan tilt in national elections, but be more flexible with state and local level candidates.
Party performance, not party registration, is the metric most political analysts use to rate a county's GOP/DEM tilt. Using %Romney vote to measure party performance is a good choice if you are trying to measure where a county is compared to the United States as a whole.
If I were looking at the county ( I moonlight as a political analyst) I would use state and local races to measure party performance since those are better starting points to create a vote model for every race save Presidential ones. It isn't odd for a county to have a strong partisan tilt in national elections, but be more flexible with state and local level candidates.
I do understand what you are saying but it was not what the OP asked for. The OP asked for:
"...a stronghold for republican mindsets..." Just because a county votes for one candidate in an election at one moment does not necessarily correlate to a strong republican mindset ever-present in the county. To determine what the OP asked for would require some significant effort to track back through the recent 4 or 5 national cycles and even that might prove uncertain since in that time period West Virginia has transitioned from a blue state to a red. Much of the transition has to do with what passes for a democrat and a republican in West Virginia or used too. I think the boundaries are firmer today than they were 20 years ago.
I agree with you, the national election voter participation which the Wall Street article seems to use as its only metric is a poor way to approach taking a snapshot. It is better to encompass many factors, most of which may be unique to West Virginia style politics.
It has been my experience that people in West Virginia that declare their registration as Republican have done so in spite of the offsets that come with that broadcast. Democrats abound and will for a couple more generations at least while self-proclaiming Republicans will find that proclamation easier and easier to live with as time goes by. As a result, a county that has a preponderance of republicans is a county that has stalwart people in resident and that seems (imo) to indicate a "a stronghold for republican mindsets".
Party performance, not party registration, is the metric most political analysts use to rate a county's GOP/DEM tilt. Using %Romney vote to measure party performance is a good choice if you are trying to measure where a county is compared to the United States as a whole.
If I were looking at the county ( I moonlight as a political analyst) I would use state and local races to measure party performance since those are better starting points to create a vote model for every race save Presidential ones. It isn't odd for a county to have a strong partisan tilt in national elections, but be more flexible with state and local level candidates.
True, & at state level it counts far more. Impact occurs for your, "here & now" & local county politics w/ county supervisors, etc. mean so much more. Even beyond your local rep in Congress, it becomes more skewed. Thx to all so far replying here.
I do understand what you are saying but it was not what the OP asked for. The OP asked for:
"...a stronghold for republican mindsets..." Just because a county votes for one candidate in an election at one moment does not necessarily correlate to a strong republican mindset ever-present in the county. To determine what the OP asked for would require some significant effort to track back through the recent 4 or 5 national cycles and even that might prove uncertain since in that time period West Virginia has transitioned from a blue state to a red. Much of the transition has to do with what passes for a democrat and a republican in West Virginia or used too. I think the boundaries are firmer today than they were 20 years ago.
I agree with you, the national election voter participation which the Wall Street article seems to use as its only metric is a poor way to approach taking a snapshot. It is better to encompass many factors, most of which may be unique to West Virginia style politics.
It has been my experience that people in West Virginia that declare their registration as Republican have done so in spite of the offsets that come with that broadcast. Democrats abound and will for a couple more generations at least while self-proclaiming Republicans will find that proclamation easier and easier to live with as time goes by. As a result, a county that has a preponderance of republicans is a county that has stalwart people in resident and that seems (imo) to indicate a "a stronghold for republican mindsets".
You don't ever look at just one cycle, you normally use a minimum of three, when gauging performance. This number gets you a Presidential race, a Senate race, 3 House Races, and at least one local cycle. Going too far back past this can be useful if you have the time, but in northern Appalachia at least, we are in the middle of a big political transition and looking back even 8-12 years often shows you where a community was more than where it is now.
WV is a very interesting beast. Big DEM registration advantage, but a GOP controlled house and senate, 3 GOP congressman to zero Dems, split US senators, and a Democrat for Gov. WV may be mostly Democratic in registration, but the state is breaking hard for the GOP in who they vote for, and I would not be surprised to see Manchin lose in 2018.
At any rate, a "GOP mindset" likely means "conservative" which most of WV is. The conservative, blue dog Democrat is nearly dead, WV is one of the last places those style candidates are still viable, and even that is eroding away as evidenced by party performance in state level elections.
I'll add that the WV counties that border my home, Mineral, Hampshire, and Morgan are GOP strongholds in registration and performance if OP is looking into the Potomac Highlands region as a possible relocation destination.
You don't ever look at just one cycle, you normally use a minimum of three, when gauging performance. This number gets you a Presidential race, a Senate race, 3 House Races, and at least one local cycle. Going too far back past this can be useful if you have the time, but in northern Appalachia at least, we are in the middle of a big political transition and looking back even 8-12 years often shows you where a community was more than where it is now.
WV is a very interesting beast. Big DEM registration advantage, but a GOP controlled house and senate, 3 GOP congressman to zero Dems, split US senators, and a Democrat for Gov. WV may be mostly Democratic in registration, but the state is breaking hard for the GOP in who they vote for, and I would not be surprised to see Manchin lose in 2018.
At any rate, a "GOP mindset" likely means "conservative" which most of WV is. The conservative, blue dog Democrat is nearly dead, WV is one of the last places those style candidates are still viable, and even that is eroding away as evidenced by party performance in state level elections.
I'll add that the WV counties that border my home, Mineral, Hampshire, and Morgan are GOP strongholds in registration and performance if OP is looking into the Potomac Highlands region as a possible relocation destination.
If you are trying to determine voting trends, I agree. However that is not what we are doing here in this thread at least. There is not necessarily a direct correlation between voting history and an area being a stronghold for a political party. Many things that determine an area's political flavor is based on the smaller elected offices such as County Clerk, Sheriff or even City Counselors and Mayors of the smaller towns in the region. Many things that drive the locals to vote with a trend locally does not always show up on state-wide or national elections.
Another aspect that is not within the general scope of this discussion is future growth. Only one county that has a Republican base that seems to be active and energized AND is always guaranteed to grow in the future is Berkeley. Wood County is a close runner up but that region is stagnant at best in population growth. All of the counties in the Eastern panhandle are seeing growth and that growth gets greater the further east you go.
My vote for a republican stronghold is Berkeley County.
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